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2025 Atlantic Hurricane Season

It seems to already be consolidating convection near the center and has a robust circulation -- I'd say very soon, this will be TD or Erin. I read an interesting post on X positing the theory that an earlier-developing storm might actually wind up further south long-term, against the common adage "stronger north, weaker west"...the reasoning is that for the past 24 hours, the cluster of storms roughly identified as 97L have been drifting mostly north. BUT with more organized structure higher into the atmosphere, it'll tap into the westerlies sooner than anticipated and accelerate the storm to the west and a faster west storm has higher chances of staying more to the south (also borne out by the correlation matrix I shared earlier). So interesting...


I'll be the first to note that this sort of rambling and shooting the breeze among enthusiasts will likely continue for several days, and we will STILL not know much about the final destination of the storm.

And for those who get the reference...

tony todd GIF
 
wx_guy said:
final destination
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MFW in 10 days the remnants of Hurricane Erin knock an entire tree into my house lmao

"You never know when..."

EDIT: Also, hilariously, the name this storm is going to receive was also the name of a character who received one of the most gruesome deaths of the entire series. Who loads that many nails into a nail gun?
 
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I don’t want to be that guy, but I think this thing is going to go high end C4 at minimum, regardless of land impacts. It’s just got so much model agreement on a strong hurricane occurring, and with the extremely warm bath waters it’s making a beeline towards, I’m pretty confident that it’s going to be at least a C4 hurricane. If I were a betting man, I’d put some money on it going 160+ mph at some point in its life.
 
slenker said:
I don’t want to be that guy, but I think this thing is going to go high end C4 at minimum, regardless of land impacts. It’s just got so much model agreement on a strong hurricane occurring, and with the extremely warm bath waters it’s making a beeline towards, I’m pretty confident that it’s going to be at least a C4 hurricane. If I were a betting man, I’d put some money on it going 160+ mph at some point in its life.
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On that note, anyone see the satellite on this thing? It's like for real a tropical storm at this point, has to be...*bets money on it*


1754866059921.png
 
wx_guy said:
On that note, anyone see the satellite on this thing? It's like for real a tropical storm at this point, has to be...*bets money on it*
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It is sure starting to get that appearance of a TS, along with very frequent bubbling convection too:
IMG_4587.gif
 
Atlantic said:
It is sure starting to get that appearance of a TS, along with very frequent bubbling convection too:
View attachment 45877
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Yeah, the hurricane models are definitely beating the deterministic and AI models currently. This thing is gonna be a hurricane by Tuesday I think.
 
Lake Martin EF4 said:
MFW in 10 days the remnants of Hurricane Erin knock an entire tree into my house lmao

"You never know when..."

EDIT: Also, hilariously, the name this storm is going to receive was also the name of a character who received one of the most gruesome deaths of the entire series. Who loads that many nails into a nail gun?
Click to expand...
Funny enough, a Category 2 Hurricane Erin struck the east coast of Florida in late July and early August in 1995:
IMG_4590.gif
IMG_4589.pngIMG_4588.png
 
wx_guy said:
Yeah, the hurricane models are definitely beating the deterministic and AI models currently. This thing is gonna be a hurricane by Tuesday I think.
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It’s still not fully certain yet if this will be a U.S. storm or not, and that concern is on my mind every day now since the disturbance appeared.
 
I spent some time looking for weather stations/observations for the Cabo Verde islands being impacted by 97L, but I couldn't find any that were in the storm currently. The closet I found was a Weather Underground station that the storm will move over in a few hours.


WunderMap® | Interactive Weather Map and Radar | Weather Underground

Weather Underground’s WunderMap provides interactive weather and radar Maps for weather conditions for locations worldwide.
www.wunderground.com
 
wx_guy said:
Yeah, the hurricane models are definitely beating the deterministic and AI models currently. This thing is gonna be a hurricane by Tuesday I think.
Click to expand...


The one thing I will say is a trough off the northwest coast of the U.S. has had a history of U.S. hits. Carol was one example back in the 50s. Something to watch.
 
majorhurricane1703 said:
The one thing I will say is a trough off the northwest coast of the U.S. has had a history of U.S. hits. Carol was one example back in the 50s. Something to watch.
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Yeah that's true! The AI models and the deterministic models have a very difficult time dealing with "grey swan" events, for example, rapid intensification. Even the AI models are probably going to disappoint in that regard, due to their structure and design. But the hurricane models might be more accurate in detecting RI. This might be very important not just for the mesoscale development of the storm, but also on its path, as a mature storm vertically aligned is influenced more by the upper level patterns. I think your point about a trough off the northwest coast is a key pattern point .


The chess game begins. Moves and countermoves.
 
It seems the NHC is Erin on the side of caution right now.

I had to meme it
 
Looking at the infrared, I can't imagine this is still just an Invest. It looks better than most Depressions and a great many weaker tropical storms already. All of the hurricane models at the latest update take this to a major hurricane within 5 days, and I'm inclined to agree.
 

WunderMap® | Interactive Weather Map and Radar | Weather Underground

Weather Underground’s WunderMap provides interactive weather and radar Maps for weather conditions for locations worldwide.
www.wunderground.com

This station is some 75-80 miles from the center of Invest 97L and are reporting sustained winds of 18 mph and gusts to 21 mph. My bet is this thing is already a full tropical storm.
 
I just absolutely love how everyone is hopping on the East Coast idea without this even forming yet.
 
 
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