2025 Atlantic Hurricane Season

[Amos]

I’m a long time lurker during hurricane season and I popped on the other day and wondered what happened to this site. Glad to know there are still the regular posters who contribute, as I agree the posts lately have been too much. Just my opinion.

 

[Blountwolf]

And on that note, can we perhaps turn discussion to the low pressure off the coast of Florida. I've been doing this for 25+ years, and it's got my interest. Not saying it'll become anything. But I think there's decent chances if it can stack and organize itself.

Agreed - this is what got my interest going and I poked my nose in here. Certainly has the pre-"game on" look.

 

[Atlantic]

Agreed - this is what got my interest going and I poked my nose in here. Certainly has the pre-"game on" look.

View attachment 45098

There was a 12Z run yesterday on now 93L that got this AoI down to the 960s in the Gulf.

A southerly track would mean more time over water and more time to strengthen.

A more northerly track would mean a weaker system and less if no time to intensify.

 

[Blountwolf]

To be perfectly honest - I am less worried about intensification with this one than I am about the atmospheric rivers it will be channeling over saturated soil. With that said - the gulf is bath water warm. Won't take much.

 

[Atlantic]

To be perfectly honest - I am less worried about intensification with this one than I am about the atmospheric rivers it will be channeling over saturated soil. With that said - the gulf is bath water warm. Won't take much.

This July has been interesting to date. First Chantal in early July and now possibly this. July’s aren’t really known to be active usually.

Just keeping an eye out on 93L, waiting and seeing.

 

[IdaliaHelene]

Not a single molecule.

I think it's insensitive and strange to be posting things like this to any board or thread. If I were you, I'd chill out with things along the lines of "OMG This is gonna be the worst season ever." or "Numerology is predicting this to be a super epic Saffir-Simpson scale busting monster C5!!!" and most importantly, complete dog water takes like "Anyone predicting this is going to be less than a hyperactive season has low IQ." Hopefully you're joking, because if you aren't, these are awful takes. Especially when the NHC, and many other highly respected meteorologists, are not predicting a hyperactive season this year. These are people who have been forecasting for a long time and know quite a bit when it comes to this.




I don't understand or know what in the world this "numerology" stuff is, but I'm going to be as honest and nice as I can possibly be for something that appears to be pseudoscientific: It looks like hogwash and BS with conspiratorial stuff sprinkled in. I don't like stuff like this. It's not something like astrology that's (mostly) harmless fun - this is a thing that's attempting to predict the Atlantic hurricane season. The Atlantic hurricane season kills people. It costs billions of dollars every year. Homes are obliterated and people lose everything. It's not something to cutely make funny or meme-y predictions about, it's very serious. If you are insinuating and predicting things, take a step off the hype train because I can tell you, people affected would not at all appreciate it. It leads to a multitude of issues, ranging from problems involving science denial in the public all the way to the "cry-wolf" effect we see quite often in this science.

I can guarantee you that there are some people who would believe something like this can be used as a genuine forecasting tool. It's not, and it never will be. There is no significance behind the order in which storms formed at all, and that doesn't affect anything about how the season will play out. Andrew was the first named storm of 1992, a category 5, but in 2016 the first storm was hurricane Alex as a C1. The things that matter for hurricane season forecasting are things like climatological background, SSTs and how they are changing, MJO, ENSO, etc. These are things we can actually quantify and measure and make rational predictions about with science.

You seem like someone who is a bit younger, so please let me be clear: There isn't anything wrong with using numerology and likening it to try to predict things. I have no problem with that in a vacuum. But insulting people who are on the other side (aka, the science side), using gross terminology to insinuate death and destruction, and genuinely pushing numerology as some sort of forecasting tool, regardless if you are intentionally doing it or not, is wrong and insensitive. Be better.

I'm 28, secondly I am a skeptic of mainstream forecasting models. So I use the LRC instead

slender said: Also "Especially when the NHC, and many other highly respected meteorologists, are not predicting a hyperactive season this year. These are people who have been forecasting for a long time and know quite a bit when it comes to this."

LEZAK MOGS + DNRD



LEZAK MOGS + DNRD

 

[warneagle]

I think it's insensitive and strange to be posting things like this to any board or thread. If I were you, I'd chill out with things along the lines of "OMG This is gonna be the worst season ever." or "Numerology is predicting this to be a super epic Saffir-Simpson scale busting monster C5!!!" and most importantly, complete dog water takes like "Anyone predicting this is going to be less than a hyperactive season has low IQ." Hopefully you're joking, because if you aren't, these are awful takes. Especially when the NHC, and many other highly respected meteorologists, are not predicting a hyperactive season this year. These are people who have been forecasting for a long time and know quite a bit when it comes to this.




I don't understand or know what in the world this "numerology" stuff is, but I'm going to be as honest and nice as I can possibly be for something that appears to be pseudoscientific: It looks like hogwash and BS with conspiratorial stuff sprinkled in. I don't like stuff like this. It's not something like astrology that's (mostly) harmless fun - this is a thing that's attempting to predict the Atlantic hurricane season. The Atlantic hurricane season kills people. It costs billions of dollars every year. Homes are obliterated and people lose everything. It's not something to cutely make funny or meme-y predictions about, it's very serious. If you are insinuating and predicting things, take a step off the hype train because I can tell you, people affected would not at all appreciate it. It leads to a multitude of issues, ranging from problems involving science denial in the public all the way to the "cry-wolf" effect we see quite often in this science.

I can guarantee you that there are some people who would believe something like this can be used as a genuine forecasting tool. It's not, and it never will be. There is no significance behind the order in which storms formed at all, and that doesn't affect anything about how the season will play out. Andrew was the first named storm of 1992, a category 5, but in 2016 the first storm was hurricane Alex as a C1. The things that matter for hurricane season forecasting are things like climatological background, SSTs and how they are changing, MJO, ENSO, etc. These are things we can actually quantify and measure and make rational predictions about with science.

You seem like someone who is a bit younger, so please let me be clear: There isn't anything wrong with using numerology and likening it to try to predict things. I have no problem with that in a vacuum. But insulting people who are on the other side (aka, the science side), using gross terminology to insinuate death and destruction, and genuinely pushing numerology as some sort of forecasting tool, regardless if you are intentionally doing it or not, is wrong and insensitive. Be better.

for real, we're doing hurricane QAnon now? Carl Sagan was completely right about the whole "clutching our crystals and nervously consulting our horoscopes" thing

 

[IdaliaHelene]

for real, we're doing hurricane QAnon now? Carl Sagan was completely right about the whole "clutching our crystals and nervously consulting our horoscopes" thing

I'm a skeptic of most mainstream hurricane forecasting and modeling

 

[warneagle]

To be perfectly honest - I am less worried about intensification with this one than I am about the atmospheric rivers it will be channeling over saturated soil. With that said - the gulf is bath water warm. Won't take much.

yeah this is another one where the rain is gonna be the #1 issue, especially considering that this exact area just got dumped on by another lemon

 

[Atlantic]

yeah this is another one where the rain is gonna be the #1 issue, especially considering that this exact area just got dumped on by another lemon

It’s always the rain though. Every storm is different, but the conditions it brings are almost always the same.

 

[Blountwolf]

It’s always the rain though. Every storm is different, but the conditions it brings are almost always the same.

True, but I think we can all safely agree that the amount of moisture in the SE this year has been anomalous. I have real concerns that we're going to have some above average flooding impacts. The soil is well saturated.

 

[Atlantic]

True, but I think we can all safely agree that the amount of moisture in the SE this year has been anomalous. I have real concerns that we're going to have some above average flooding impacts. The soil is well saturated.

I certainly agree on that! We don’t really need more rain on top of it. It would be nice if the Gulf would just cool off.

 

[slenker]

Not a single molecule.

I'm 28, secondly I am a skeptic of mainstream forecasting models. So I use the LRC instead

jfl


LEZAK MOGS + DNRD

This is all practically incomprehensible to me, and injecting graphs with no explanation behind them doesn't show or tell me anything at all. This isn't a good look.

I'm telling you that you need to stop hype-casting. It hurts credibility and is nothing but fear-mongering trash. There are a few things about this season climatologically that do not point to a hyperactive season, and the NHC sees this. These are career scientists that know what they are discussing. From what I can tell, you aren't science-literate enough to understand this. If you want to predict, then predict, that's fine. But don't spam this thread with pseudoscience and claim scientists are wrong or "30 iq" or whatever. It makes you look painfully ignorant at best and malicious at worst.

 

[IdaliaHelene]

This is all practically incomprehensible to me, and injecting graphs with no explanation behind them doesn't show or tell me anything at all. This isn't a good look.

I'm telling you that you need to stop hype-casting. It hurts credibility and is nothing but fear-mongering trash. There are a few things about this season climatologically that do not point to a hyperactive season, and the NHC sees this. These are career scientists that know what they are discussing. From what I can tell, you aren't science-literate enough to understand this. If you want to predict, then predict, that's fine. But don't spam this thread with pseudoscience and claim scientists are wrong or "30 iq" or whatever. It makes you look painfully ignorant at best and malicious at worst.

Not a single molecule

 

[Atlantic]

Code Orange


ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 PM EDT Mon Jul 14 2025

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of America:

1. East of the Florida Peninsula into the Northeastern Gulf (AL93):
An area of low pressure located offshore of the east coast of
Florida continues to produce disorganized showers and thunderstorms
primarily south of the center. This system is forecast to move
westward across the Florida Peninsula on Tuesday and Tuesday night,
eventually moving into the northeastern Gulf by the middle part of
this week. Environmental conditions appear generally favorable for
additional development if the system remains offshore, and a
tropical depression could form as the system moves across the
northeastern and north-central Gulf by the middle to latter part of
this week.

Regardless of development, heavy rainfall could produce localized
flash flooding over portions of Florida and the north-central Gulf
coast through the middle to latter portion of this week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...40 percent.



Forecaster Papin

 

[IdaliaHelene]

Code Orange

View attachment 45105
ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 PM EDT Mon Jul 14 2025

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of America:

1. East of the Florida Peninsula into the Northeastern Gulf (AL93):
An area of low pressure located offshore of the east coast of
Florida continues to produce disorganized showers and thunderstorms
primarily south of the center. This system is forecast to move
westward across the Florida Peninsula on Tuesday and Tuesday night,
eventually moving into the northeastern Gulf by the middle part of
this week. Environmental conditions appear generally favorable for
additional development if the system remains offshore, and a
tropical depression could form as the system moves across the
northeastern and north-central Gulf by the middle to latter part of
this week.

Regardless of development, heavy rainfall could produce localized
flash flooding over portions of Florida and the north-central Gulf
coast through the middle to latter portion of this week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...40 percent.



Forecaster Papin

made a thread

Thread 'invest 93L (30/40)'

Yesterday at 4:00 PM

ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 PM EDT Mon Jul 14 2025

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of America:

1. Northeastern Gulf:
An area of low pressure located offshore of the east coast of
Florida is producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms. This
disturbance is forecast to move westward across Florida during the
next day or so, and into the northeastern Gulf by late Tuesday.
Environmental conditions appear favorable and some gradual
development of this system is possible while it moves...

• IdaliaHelene
• Replies: 7
• Forum: Tropical Weather

 

[wx_guy]

Can we please stop the seasonal forecast posts? The season is well underway, seasonal forecasts (except for one-off posts) have limited value for the community.

Wow, 93L! Excited. Some of the modeling is quite aggressive with this system, but I agree the rain is the biggest threat currently. The big question is how much this will remain over water.

 

[wx_guy]

On a different note, I have been tweaking a statistical model I've been working on that tries to forecast intensity and RI probabilities. Shown here is Helene last year about 18 hours before it blew up in the Gulf (I ran the data on Helene as a weak Cat 1). It still under forecast the explosive development into a Cat 4 before landfall, but seems to be holding its own against SHIPS and the like. I'll keep tweaking it, but excited to try it out some this season.

 

[Atlantic]

On a different note, I have been tweaking a statistical model I've been working on that tries to forecast intensity and RI probabilities. Shown here is Helene last year about 18 hours before it blew up in the Gulf (I ran the data on Helene as a weak Cat 1). It still under forecast the explosive development into a Cat 4 before landfall, but seems to be holding its own against SHIPS and the like. I'll keep tweaking it, but excited to try it out some this season.

View attachment 45107

That’s very interesting! I’d love to learn more about your model process!

 

[IdaliaHelene]