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2025 Atlantic Hurricane Season

Atlantic said:
The current average by the 1991-2020 stats is 14/7/3
The former average from 1981-2010 was 12/7/3

2016 had 15/6/4, the NS was three above average, the hurricanes were one below average, but the MH were one above average
2017 has 17/10/6, all three were above average (NS was 5 above, the HU were 3 above and the MH were 3 above, Mh were double the average)
2018 has 15/8/2, the NS were three above, the HU were one above, but the MH was one below.
2019 has 18/6/3, the NS were six above, the HU were one below and the MH were at average
2020 had all three above (NS were 18 above, the HU were 7 above which was double the average and the MH were 4 above.)
2021 began the current 1991-2020 average of 14/7/3 (the NS were 7 above, the HU were average and the MH were one above)
2022 was near-average (NS were average, Hu were one above, and the MH were one below)
2023 has the NS 6 above, the HU and MH were both average.
2024 had all tree above (NS was 4 above, HU were 4 above, and the MH were 2 above)

The NS from 2016 to 2024 are 8 for 9 in being above average
The HU from 2016 to 2024 are 4 for 9 in being above average
The MH from 2016 to 2024 are 5 for 9 in being above average.
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Fascinating @Atlantic
 
slenker said:
While I was looking into the upcoming big severe system I noticed this little funny thing in the Gulf. It wouldn’t be the operational GFS without some random hurricane forming in the Gulf 300 hours out this early in the season, lol
View attachment 43316
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That's hilarious. However, we should get tropical development from NW Caribbean into Gulf roughly first two weeks of June
 
slenker said:
GFS has been remarkably consistent with showing a hurricane hitting the US about 250 hours out. Again, it’s the GFS, but the consistency is worrying to me.
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It's worth mentioning too that the GFS Ensembles as well as the Euro Ensembles are starting to pick up on it too.
 
Heads up for watching the Southern East Coast ATL AOI; it is now up to 10% in the 2-day range. Not much chance it will form but something to consider. Little change in the wording.
IMG_7054.jpeg
 
lake.effect said:
Not sure why this hasn't been posted yet, but the GFS has been very consistent in developing a large, strong hurricane in the Carribbean/Gulf of Mexico in the D7-10 range. Latest run makes landfall in the Yucatan and Texas, both has strong cat2/cat 3
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Just a word of caution, it may just be the GFS overhyping things like usual.

A storm could form down in the Caribbean and go up to the Yucatán and Texas, it’s a possibility but it likely won’t happen and if it does it will probably be much weaker than the GFS forecasts.
 
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