2025 Atlantic Hurricane Season

[Wazim Khan]

2017 included.

 

[Atlantic]

2008, 2011 and 2017 were my analogs!

 

[Atlantic]

With the tornado season being the way it is right now, 2011 is a good analog for TC activity following the historic tornado season of that year.

 

[Wazim Khan]

If I missed out any, please let me know, it'll be greatly appreciated.

 

[Atlantic]

The predicted numbers average comes out to 16.8 NS, 8.4 HU and 3.9 MH.

Rounded out is 17 NS, 8 HU and 4 MH.

 

[IdaliaHelene]

The predicted numbers average comes out to 16.8 NS, 8.4 HU and 3.9 MH.

Rounded out is 17 NS, 8 HU and 4 MH.

I've also updated my landfall forecast + they are predicting an above average chance of a florida MH landfall

 

[IdaliaHelene]

If I missed out any, please let me know, it'll be greatly appreciated.

View attachment 38875

cyclonic fury = laughable forecast

 

[IdaliaHelene]

2008, 2011 and 2017 were my analogs!

2017 included.

View attachment 38848

even 2008/2011 seems mild
and wasn't 2008 more Gulf heavy?

 

[Wazim Khan]

even 2008/2011 seems mild
and wasn't 2008 more Gulf heavy?

 

[Atlantic]

2008 was gulf heavy but it also had alot of MDR activity

 

[Atlantic]

2011 was more out to sea, with few landfalls other than Hurricane Irene.

 

[Wazim Khan]

2008 also had an El Niño Costero early in the year like 2017 and 2025. 2008 also had a La Niña that developed in Autumn.

 

[IdaliaHelene]

Watch them eat their words
HUGE underestimation + rose tinted goggles

 

[IdaliaHelene]

Watch them eat their words
HUGE underestimation + rose tinted goggles

And someone responded cheekily with this

 

[Wazim Khan]

The April initialized run of the ECMWF is forecasting an above-normal number of Tropical Storms through October 2025 in the Atlantic Basin.

ECMWF | Charts

charts.ecmwf.int

 

[Wazim Khan]

The April initialized run of the ECMWF is forecasting 120% of the average ACE through October 2025 in the Atlantic Basin.

ECMWF | Charts

charts.ecmwf.int

 

[IdaliaHelene]

JFL at the underselling from TSR

https://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/docs/TSRATLForecastApril2025.pdf

14-7-3 / ACE 120 JFLLLLLLLLL

 

[IdaliaHelene]

JFL at the underselling from TSR

https://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/docs/TSRATLForecastApril2025.pdf

14-7-3 / ACE 120 JFLLLLLLLLL

WHAT IS WRONG WITH THESE PEOPLE:

 

[Atlantic]

The April initialized run of the ECMWF is forecasting 120% of the average ACE through October 2025 in the Atlantic Basin.

ECMWF | Charts

charts.ecmwf.int

View attachment 39199

120% of the Atlantic's average ACE which going by the current 1991-2020 stats (average by 1991-2020 is 122.5)

120% of 122.5 is 147.

 

[Atlantic]

The GFS (Goofy Ahh Season) model is starting early this year on storms in the Atlantic: