2025 Atlantic Hurricane Season

[Wazim Khan]

This looks excrement for hurricanes
No green in the caribbean or GOA right

It is forecasting above-normal precipitation in the Southwestern Gulf of Mexico (Gulf of America) but below-normal precipitation in the Caribbean Sea, which suggests less activity there compared to last year. It is also suggesting a lot of recurves from the Tropical North Atlantic into the Central Subtropical Atlantic and Western Atlantic.

 

[IdaliaHelene]

It is forecasting above-normal precipitation in the Southwestern Gulf of Mexico (Gulf of America) but below-normal precipitation in the Caribbean Sea, which suggests less activity there compared to last year. It is also suggesting a lot of recurves from the Tropical North Atlantic into the Central Subtropical Atlantic and Western Atlantic.

So in other words a nothing burger

 

[IdaliaHelene]

Also, I just checked the source of that image showing the analogs, and it's made using the NMME's global SST forecast.

Current analogs , 2011 is the only good one IMO.

View attachment 34020

MUH IT WILL BE A NOTHINGBURGER
This is why we have to trust our own instincts and not always the higher ups

 

[IdaliaHelene]

I've seen a few meteorologists mentioning it on X (formerly Twitter).


View attachment 34015

Do people just see a list 5 season and think "muh it won't be excrement"

 

[Wazim Khan]

Do people just see a list 5 season and think "muh it won't be excrement"

I don't know.

 

[Wazim Khan]

So in other words a nothing burger

At the end of the day, it's just one model. But looking at a lot of models, it seems like the 2025 Atlantic Hurricane Season is likely to be above-normal.

 

[IdaliaHelene]

I don't know.

Sure

At the end of the day, it's just one model. But looking at a lot of models, it seems like the 2025 Atlantic Hurricane Season is likely to be above-normal.

Exactly, why aren't more people hyping compared to last year? jfl

 

[IdaliaHelene]

Can someone tell me why the mdr is cooling

 

[Wazim Khan]

Can someone tell me why the mdr is cooling

Because the North Atlantic Oscillation is currently in a positive phase.

 

[IdaliaHelene]

Because the North Atlantic Oscillation is currently in a positive phase.

Ending soon or nah

 

[Wazim Khan]

Ending soon or nah

The North Atlantic Oscillation will remain in a positive phase into early March.

 

[Wazim Khan]

If the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) is generally in a negative phase in April to June 2025, then the weaker than normal Trade Winds will allow Sea Surface Temperatures in the Tropical North Atlantic and Caribbean Sea to warm up and be above-normal during the peak of the 2025 Atlantic Hurricane Season (August to October 2025).

 

[IdaliaHelene]

The North Atlantic Oscillation will remain in a positive phase into early March.
View attachment 34067

So much for MUH THE NAO KEEPS RISING by this guy

 

[IdaliaHelene]

If the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) is generally in a negative phase in April to June 2025, then the weaker than normal Trade Winds will allow Sea Surface Temperatures in the Tropical North Atlantic and Caribbean Sea to warm up and be above-normal during the peak of the 2025 Atlantic Hurricane Season (August to October 2025).

Over for alexborehamcels.

 

[Wazim Khan]

Meteorologist Eric Burris has issued his forecast for the 2025 Atlantic Hurricane Season.

 

[Wazim Khan]

Remember that I said how 2017 and 1984 are the best analogs, well Meteorologist Eric Burris says the same thing.

 

[Wazim Khan]

The entire Gulf coast of the U.S. has a higher than normal chance for landfalls this year.

2025 Hurricane Season | Forecast reveals higher than average chance of direct impact in this region

2025 Hurricane Season | What areas are at the greatest risk of seeing a landfalling tropical system in 2025?

www.wesh.com

 

[Atlantic]

*Irma-flashbacks* The fact of exactly where Florida is in this season's LRC forecast reinforces the 2017 analog:





The NHC TCR best track on Hurricane Irma:




Notice that Irma went though Florida Keys and though western Florida near the coast.

 

[Atlantic]

And just like I thought, Hurricane Oscar's track was part of the LRC. You also have the Nov 18-19 LRC signal taking a similar track to what Milton did.

 

[Wazim Khan]

*Irma-flashbacks* The fact of exactly where Florida is in this season's LRC forecast reinforces the 2017 analog:


View attachment 34250


The NHC TCR best track on Hurricane Irma:

View attachment 34251


Notice that Irma went though Florida Keys and though western Florida near the coast.

Yes. The Bahamas is also a hotspot but Meteorologist Eric Burris only highlights hotspots in the U.S.