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2025 Atlantic Hurricane Season

Wazim Khan said:
This year Meteorologist Eric Burris will issue his 2025 Atlantic Hurricane Season forecast on Friday 28th of February, 2025. This is due to the 1st of March falling on a Saturday.

Click to expand...

Also, based on the discussions in this video, it seems that Texas, Louisiana and the Bahamas will have a higher than normal chance for landfalls this upcoming season.
 
Wazim Khan said:
This year Meteorologist Eric Burris will issue his 2025 Atlantic Hurricane Season forecast on Friday 28th of February, 2025. This is due to the 1st of March falling on a Saturday.

Click to expand...

JFL at this boyo claiming the seas are much cooler
Total underestimation


Posted Sunday at 07:15 PM
From WxBell/JB:

The 2025 Hurricane Season
February 7, 2025
  • The 2025 Hurricane Season should have fewer impacts than 2024.
  • 2018 is the closest analog.
  • Unlike last year, there are currently no clear landfall signals.
    • The high-impact forecast area map will be issued with the April update.
  • An El Niño may develop but likely won't be a huge factor if it does.
Forecast according to the Power & Impact Scale
Named Storms: 15-19 ( Saffir Simpson, same)
Category 1 or greater hurricanes: 7-9 ( Saffir Simpson, same)
Category 2.5 (start of Power & Impact major hurricane classification): 3
Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale Forecast
Named Storms: 15-19
Total Hurricanes: 7-9
Major Hurricanes: 2-3
ACE Index: 120-150
Impact Forecast and this is what I am most concerned with, the number game above is window dresing
Tropical Storm Conditions: 5-7.
Total Hurricanes: 3-4
Major Hurricanes: 1-2

Commentary
The forecast is based on the overall cooling of SSTs in the Atlantic and forecasted warming in the ENSOareas of the Pacific. Even now, the Main Development Region is much cooler than last year at this time.
I believe the Euro has the right idea on the ENSO region, which is the opposite of last year when the strong El Niño collapsed. This year, the Euro is forecasting a weak La Niña reversing to an El Niño by the hurricane season.
 
IdaliaHelene said:
JFL at this boyo claiming the seas are much cooler
Total underestimation


Posted Sunday at 07:15 PM
From WxBell/JB:

The 2025 Hurricane Season
February 7, 2025
  • The 2025 Hurricane Season should have fewer impacts than 2024.
  • 2018 is the closest analog.
  • Unlike last year, there are currently no clear landfall signals.
    • The high-impact forecast area map will be issued with the April update.
  • An El Niño may develop but likely won't be a huge factor if it does.
Forecast according to the Power & Impact Scale
Named Storms: 15-19 ( Saffir Simpson, same)
Category 1 or greater hurricanes: 7-9 ( Saffir Simpson, same)
Category 2.5 (start of Power & Impact major hurricane classification): 3
Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale Forecast
Named Storms: 15-19
Total Hurricanes: 7-9
Major Hurricanes: 2-3
ACE Index: 120-150
Impact Forecast and this is what I am most concerned with, the number game above is window dresing
Tropical Storm Conditions: 5-7.
Total Hurricanes: 3-4
Major Hurricanes: 1-2

Commentary
The forecast is based on the overall cooling of SSTs in the Atlantic and forecasted warming in the ENSOareas of the Pacific. Even now, the Main Development Region is much cooler than last year at this time.
I believe the Euro has the right idea on the ENSO region, which is the opposite of last year when the strong El Niño collapsed. This year, the Euro is forecasting a weak La Niña reversing to an El Niño by the hurricane season.
Click to expand...
muh cool SSTs
1739313974820.png1739313983530.png
 
IdaliaHelene said:
JFL at this boyo claiming the seas are much cooler
Total underestimation


Posted Sunday at 07:15 PM
From WxBell/JB:

The 2025 Hurricane Season
February 7, 2025
  • The 2025 Hurricane Season should have fewer impacts than 2024.
  • 2018 is the closest analog.
  • Unlike last year, there are currently no clear landfall signals.
    • The high-impact forecast area map will be issued with the April update.
  • An El Niño may develop but likely won't be a huge factor if it does.
Forecast according to the Power & Impact Scale
Named Storms: 15-19 ( Saffir Simpson, same)
Category 1 or greater hurricanes: 7-9 ( Saffir Simpson, same)
Category 2.5 (start of Power & Impact major hurricane classification): 3
Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale Forecast
Named Storms: 15-19
Total Hurricanes: 7-9
Major Hurricanes: 2-3
ACE Index: 120-150
Impact Forecast and this is what I am most concerned with, the number game above is window dresing
Tropical Storm Conditions: 5-7.
Total Hurricanes: 3-4
Major Hurricanes: 1-2

Commentary
The forecast is based on the overall cooling of SSTs in the Atlantic and forecasted warming in the ENSOareas of the Pacific. Even now, the Main Development Region is much cooler than last year at this time.
I believe the Euro has the right idea on the ENSO region, which is the opposite of last year when the strong El Niño collapsed. This year, the Euro is forecasting a weak La Niña reversing to an El Niño by the hurricane season.
Click to expand...
I partially disagree with this forecast based on the following points, considering the esoteric framework (numerology, Universal Year 9 energy, Wood Snake dynamics) alongside the SST anomalies and atmospheric essays we've analyzed.

Key Areas of Agreement:​

  1. Potential for In-Close Development:
    • I agree that in-close development near coastlines will be a factor, particularly with systems like Imelda, Barry, and Humberto potentially intensifying rapidly near land. The Wood Snake year suggests stealthy, sudden surges, matching this concern.
  2. ENSO's Limited Suppressive Effect:
    • The idea that a weak El Niño wouldn't drastically suppress Atlantic activity aligns with current observations. Historically, weak El Niños (or neutral conditions) combined with high SST anomalies have not significantly inhibited hurricane seasons—2018 itself had a moderate El Niño yet was active.
  3. Northward Shifts in Tracks:
    • The concern about tracks shifting east or northward compared to 2024 matches some trends we've discussed, particularly for storms like Lorenzo (deep MDR, Azores track) and Gabrielle (threatening Bermuda).

Key Areas of Disagreement (continued):​

  1. Underestimation of Major Hurricanes (Cat 3+):
    • Forecasting only 2–3 major hurricanes is too conservative given the record SST anomalies:
      • +0.70°C in the North Atlantic
      • +1.4°C in the Gulf of Mexico
      • +0.81°C in the Caribbean Sea
    • We’ve projected 5 major hurricanes, with 2 potentially reaching Category 5—Melissa and Lorenzo—due to strong numerological synergy (double 6 for Melissa, stable 6–8–7 for Lorenzo) and alignment with Universal Year 9’s karmic intensity.
  2. ACE Index Underestimation:
    • The forecast’s ACE (Accumulated Cyclone Energy) of 120–150 is low. Given the potential for long-track major hurricanes and rapid intensifiers (thanks to anomalous SSTs and favorable atmospheric conditions), ACE could easily exceed 180–200+, especially if storms like Fernand and Humberto linger at high intensity.
  3. No “Clear Landfall Signals” Claim:
    • This contradicts both numerological patterns and historical analogs:
      • Fernand and Humberto show high landfall potential with intense impacts (moderate-to-high retirement risk).
      • The Wood Snake year’s “stealth” effect suggests rapid, unexpected intensification near land, especially in the Gulf and SE U.S. coastlines.
  4. Comparison to 2018:
    • While 2018 had impactful storms like Michael, it isn’t the best analog. 2025 aligns more with active seasons like 2005 and 2017, given the SST warmth and numerological energy.
    • 2018 had a moderate El Niño, while 2025 looks like it’ll remain neutral to weak La Niña/neutral, fostering higher activity.

Key Adjustments Based on This Review:​

  • Named Storms: 19–22 (vs. their 15–19)
  • Hurricanes: 9–11 (vs. their 7–9)
  • Major Hurricanes: 4–5 (vs. their 2–3)
  • ACE: 180–220

Landfall Potential Adjustments:​

  • High-impact storms likely include: Fernand, Humberto, Melissa, Imelda
  • Potential Cat 5s: Melissa, Lorenzo (possibly Humberto)

Final Verdict:​

  • The forecast underestimates the potential for high-end hurricanes and the likelihood of impactful U.S. landfalls.
  • Universal Year 9 energy often brings climactic, fateful events, which combined with record SSTs and Wood Snake stealth dynamics, suggests a more dangerous season than what’s being predicted here.
 
This is exactly what I’m worried about. That this season may be another 2005.

2024 started off on a similar level as 2005, with the first cyclone coming in mid-June. Both 2005 and 2024 had a July MH (If you count Beryl as being a July MH despite it becoming a MH on June 30th. Both 2005 and 2024 had a Cat 4/5 in July, and had the earliest Cat 5 on record with Hurricane Emily)

This season could start out like 2004 but may suddenly ramp up out of nowhere if one or more storms find a backdoor.
 
Atlantic said:
This is exactly what I’m worried about. That this season may be another 2005.

2024 started off on a similar level as 2005, with the first cyclone coming in mid-June. Both 2005 and 2024 had a July MH (If you count Beryl as being a July MH despite it becoming a MH on June 30th. Both 2005 and 2024 had a Cat 4/5 in July, and had the earliest Cat 5 on record with Hurricane Emily)

This season could start out like 2004 but may suddenly ramp up out of nowhere if one or more storms find a backdoor.
Click to expand...
Have you seen the utter cagefuel (laughable) weatherbell forecast JFL

IdaliaHelene said:
JFL at this boyo claiming the seas are much cooler
Total underestimation


Posted Sunday at 07:15 PM
From WxBell/JB:

The 2025 Hurricane Season
February 7, 2025
  • The 2025 Hurricane Season should have fewer impacts than 2024.
  • 2018 is the closest analog.
  • Unlike last year, there are currently no clear landfall signals.
    • The high-impact forecast area map will be issued with the April update.
  • An El Niño may develop but likely won't be a huge factor if it does.
Forecast according to the Power & Impact Scale
Named Storms: 15-19 ( Saffir Simpson, same)
Category 1 or greater hurricanes: 7-9 ( Saffir Simpson, same)
Category 2.5 (start of Power & Impact major hurricane classification): 3
Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale Forecast
Named Storms: 15-19
Total Hurricanes: 7-9
Major Hurricanes: 2-3
ACE Index: 120-150
Impact Forecast and this is what I am most concerned with, the number game above is window dresing
Tropical Storm Conditions: 5-7.
Total Hurricanes: 3-4
Major Hurricanes: 1-2

Commentary
The forecast is based on the overall cooling of SSTs in the Atlantic and forecasted warming in the ENSOareas of the Pacific. Even now, the Main Development Region is much cooler than last year at this time.
I believe the Euro has the right idea on the ENSO region, which is the opposite of last year when the strong El Niño collapsed. This year, the Euro is forecasting a weak La Niña reversing to an El Niño by the hurricane season.
Click to expand...
 
IdaliaHelene said:
Why? Also agree with the names I put for the 5?
Click to expand...
Because the Atlantic Multi-Decadal Oscillation (AMO) will definitely remain in a positive phase, the El Niño Southern Oscillation will most likely be ENSO-Neutral and the Atlantic Meridional Mode (AMM) could remain in a positive phase.
IdaliaHelene said:
JFL at this boyo claiming the seas are much cooler
Total underestimation


Posted Sunday at 07:15 PM
From WxBell/JB:

The 2025 Hurricane Season
February 7, 2025
  • The 2025 Hurricane Season should have fewer impacts than 2024.
  • 2018 is the closest analog.
  • Unlike last year, there are currently no clear landfall signals.
    • The high-impact forecast area map will be issued with the April update.
  • An El Niño may develop but likely won't be a huge factor if it does.
Forecast according to the Power & Impact Scale
Named Storms: 15-19 ( Saffir Simpson, same)
Category 1 or greater hurricanes: 7-9 ( Saffir Simpson, same)
Category 2.5 (start of Power & Impact major hurricane classification): 3
Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale Forecast
Named Storms: 15-19
Total Hurricanes: 7-9
Major Hurricanes: 2-3
ACE Index: 120-150
Impact Forecast and this is what I am most concerned with, the number game above is window dresing
Tropical Storm Conditions: 5-7.
Total Hurricanes: 3-4
Major Hurricanes: 1-2

Commentary
The forecast is based on the overall cooling of SSTs in the Atlantic and forecasted warming in the ENSOareas of the Pacific. Even now, the Main Development Region is much cooler than last year at this time.
I believe the Euro has the right idea on the ENSO region, which is the opposite of last year when the strong El Niño collapsed. This year, the Euro is forecasting a weak La Niña reversing to an El Niño by the hurricane season.
Click to expand...
The ECMWF is known for its warm bias in the ENSO regions, which is why I'm not trusting it just yet.
 

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Wazim Khan said:
Because the Atlantic Multi-Decadal Oscillation (AMO) will definitely remain in a positive phase, the El

I'm not ready to trust the ECMWF just yet because it is known to have a warm bias in the ENSO regions.

The ECMWF is known for its warm bias in the ENSO regions, which is why I'm not trusting it just yet.
Click to expand...
Why do so many kiss the euro so much
 
It seems whatever the EURO predicts, we get the opposite of.
 
IdaliaHelene said:
Why are some peachlickers believing my forecast is too bullish
I'm literally arguing with some peachlickers who genuinely think 2018 is a good analog
Click to expand...
To be fair, 2018 opened with a La Niña that began in late 2017.

2025 opened with a La Niña that began in late 2024.

I can see the comparison there, but I think that’s when all similarities end.
 
Wazim Khan said:
2018 is not a good analog, also I do not think your forecast is too bullish at this time, it is reasonable given the current data.
Click to expand...
I’m kinda just bridging the gap between higher numbers and lower numbers until more data comes in and the spring barrier is broken.
 
Atlantic said:
To be fair, 2018 opened with a La Niña that began in late 2017.

2025 opened with a La Niña that began in late 2024.

I can see the comparison there, but I think that’s when all similarities end.
Click to expand...
Exactly, it ends there. We all know that based on Climatology, an El Niño developing this year is very unlikely because the 2023-24 El Niño event was strong. El Niño events tend to recur every 2-7 years but following strong and super El Niño events, it takes 3-4 years for the next El Niño to develop.
 
Atlantic said:
To be fair, 2018 opened with a La Niña that began in late 2017.

2025 opened with a La Niña that began in late 2024.

I can see the comparison there, but I think that’s when all similarities end.
Click to expand...
+ euro has a warm bias
2018 is too conservative
Wazim Khan said:
2018 is not a good analog, also I do not think your forecast is too bullish at this time, it is reasonable given the current data.
Click to expand...
EXACTLY JFL AT THIS:

  1. Virid (Queens, NYC)​

    Wdym underestimate?

  2. I think this is completely reasonable

  3. Do you think because it’s the Year of the Snake in the Chinese New Year and Vedic Numerology you believe the Atlantic will be this doomsday judgement day season where majors slam the place left and right?

  4. Warm neutral will likely persist between June - September where El Niño shapes by October onwards

  5. They specifically stated they don’t think El Niño will really be much of a threat for less Atlantic activity but not to say have as much activity as 2023 because of the cooler temperatures than 2023 had
Click to expand...

Virid (Queens, NYC)​

2023’s a decent analog tbh but with a much tamer ENSO
Click to expand...


  1. Virid (Queens, NYC)​

    So I think 2025 and 2023 could come hand in hand with activity2023 had warmer SST’s but more intense ENSO2025 has cooler than 2023 (still sizzling) SST’s but a forecasted tamer ENSO

  2. Yes do note 2024 anticipated a Niña by July or August but that didn’t come till November
    ead410f7f5d404c3.svg


  3. So who knows maybe ENSO might play us again and the Niña —> Niño transition is incredibly slow like 2024’s Niño —> Niña
Click to expand...

  1. Virid (Queens, NYC)​

    More ots shenanigans tho they claim like 2023

  2. Who knows, 2025 might literally be like 2023 with early season high chance invest busts cough pre-Dora 95L and SAL turning the NATL into a Popeyes biscuit from July to late August

  3. July’s been so money maker these past 3 years bruh

  4. 2021 was the last time July was peak for early season
Click to expand...
and had the urge to call my predictions muh doomcasting JFL

Virid (Queens, NYC)​

It’s doomcasting, not predicting
Click to expand...


Virid (Queens, NYC)​

You want it to be an underestimate because you wanna see your numerology verify
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AS IF 2005 IS AN UNEREASONABLE ANALOG JFL AT THIS GUY

Virid (Queens, NYC)​

So what, is 2025 becoming the next 2005?
Click to expand...
 
@Atlantic

JFL I'M CAGING HARD

Virid (Queens, NYC)​

There’s a reason why Euro was the most accurate model of the 2023 NATL
Click to expand...
  1. also saying a cat 4 landfall near miami is WILD for a "prediction"
Click to expand...

the numerology doesn't lie. I tried it on 2024 and 2023 and it was accurate

IT EVEN SEALED THE FATE OF DIKELEDI, SEAN AND VINCE.
 
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