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2024 Atlantic Hurricane Season

jiharris0220 said:
I disagree with the notion that MJO had a major impact on the inactivity through mid/late August-early September.

Many seasons had their peaks during suppressive phases with 2017 being an example, but remember the reason for this is that MJO influences lag behind phases. For Example:
View attachment 31472
The Late August early September shut down was mostly like caused by onset +NAO which wrecked the +AMO signal present before. This allowed for stronger than normal dry air intrusions alongside with the cooler waters creating stability.

200mb temperatures were far above average, record breaking in places over the Iberian peninsula and subtropics. These warm upper level temperatures also created stability over the Atlantic.

All this excessive warmth located mostly above 30dgr north was the likely cause for the monsoon trough over Africa to shift towards its highest latitude on record. As you guys recall, tropical waves were exiting off as far north as Morocco.

Not to mention that northernly displaced wave trains are known to increase dry air intrusions off of Africa as well.

All of these factors, and of course along with unfavorable MJO placement helped with completely shutting down an active early September. The fact that the Atlantic still managed to be hyperactive pretty much confirms had this period been active the extremely high ACE numbers would’ve verified.
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Of course you do
 
I think I will start a thread for Invest 99L, just in case.
 
So Sandy's name replacement finally has a chance to be used, but may end up being worse than Sandy...

We will see...
 
Ah yes GFS, we are going to have a possible weak storm in the Carribean in December (Nov 28-Dec 1)

gfs_mslp_pcpn_atl_fh204-300.gif
The GEFS model has been hinting at possible development in the Western Caribbean in late-November or early-December. A 12Z EPS run had a very weak disturbance a few days ago in the same timeframe.
 
GEFS 06Z for today (most recent run)(Orange areas are the possible disturbance from November 27th to December 2nd):
gfs-ememb_lowlocs_atl_fh0-252.gif

GEPS 06Z today (Canadian model) (There's a faint whisper around November 27th)
gem-ememb_lowlocs_atl_fh0-216.gif

The EPS model isn't really showing anything now though. Just something to watch as we haven't had a storm crossover or form in December since 2013.
 
December Tropical Systems that formed in and/or got into the Caribbean since 1950:

Hurricane Alice 1954
Tropical Depression Thirteen 1985
Tropical Storm Karen 1989 (Karen formed on November 28th, but lasted into December)
Tropical Storm Odette 2003
Tropical Storm Olga 2007
 
JPWX said:
December Tropical Systems that formed in and/or got into the Caribbean since 1950:

Hurricane Alice 1954
Tropical Depression Thirteen 1985
Tropical Storm Karen 1989 (Karen formed on November 28th, but lasted into December)
Tropical Storm Odette 2003
Tropical Storm Olga 2007
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Interestingly enough, Karen 1989 came from a tropical wave!
 
Would you believe me if I showed you this?

Screenshot 2024-11-20 3.16.17 PM.png
 
For those interested, I've started working on the 2024 Atlantic Hurricane Season PowerPoints. This is a project I started on July 24th, 2022 for the Atlantic and December 17th, 2023 for the Eastern Pacific. This is one of nearly 20 data collecting projects I've worked on since Summer 2007 in word, excel, and PowerPoint documents. Some projects I've retired while others I keep up to date. Basically, I went back on the NHC website and saved each 5 day forecast cone for each advisory since 2001. It's been very interesting and a relearning curve for me as well. I did all this myself and on my own time. I just wish sometimes I had started this weather data collecting earlier in my life.

Top 5 Biggest PowerPoints (by slide count):

1. Beryl (2024)-500 Slides
2. Ian (2022)-272 Slides
3. Harvey (2017)-261 Slides
4. Irma (2017)-194 Slides
5. Florence (2018)-163 Slides

Included in these PowerPoints are:
***I like to add a lot more to the bigger/more notable storms such as Katrina, Ike, Rita, Wilma, etc.****
Formation
Dissipation
Max Winds
Estimated Gusts
Lowest Pressure
Fatalities (if any)
Damage (if any)
Affected Areas (if any)
Total ACE
Interesting Facts (records broken, records set, etc.)
Duration (By Week, By Day, By Hour, By Minute, By Second)
Multiple Radar, satellite images, etc. (especially with Atlantic storms)

Atlantic Total (2001 thru 2023): 412 tropical PowerPoints and 15,327 slides
Eastern Pacific Total (2001 thru 2023): 462 tropical PowerPoints and 11,151 slides.
Note: There's not a whole lot of archived satellite/radar imagery for East Pacific storms which is why the slide count is lower overall
Grand Total Count (for both Atlantic/Eastern Pacific): 874 tropical PowerPoints and 26,478 slides
 
JPWX said:
For those interested, I've started working on the 2024 Atlantic Hurricane Season PowerPoints. This is a project I started on July 24th, 2022 for the Atlantic and December 17th, 2023 for the Eastern Pacific. This is one of nearly 20 data collecting projects I've worked on since Summer 2007 in word, excel, and PowerPoint documents. Some projects I've retired while others I keep up to date. Basically, I went back on the NHC website and saved each 5 day forecast cone for each advisory since 2001. It's been very interesting and a relearning curve for me as well. I did all this myself and on my own time. I just wish sometimes I had started this weather data collecting earlier in my life.

Top 5 Biggest PowerPoints (by slide count):

1. Beryl (2024)-500 Slides
2. Ian (2022)-272 Slides
3. Harvey (2017)-261 Slides
4. Irma (2017)-194 Slides
5. Florence (2018)-163 Slides

Included in these PowerPoints are:
***I like to add a lot more to the bigger/more notable storms such as Katrina, Ike, Rita, Wilma, etc.****
Formation
Dissipation
Max Winds
Estimated Gusts
Lowest Pressure
Fatalities (if any)
Damage (if any)
Affected Areas (if any)
Total ACE
Interesting Facts (records broken, records set, etc.)
Duration (By Week, By Day, By Hour, By Minute, By Second)
Multiple Radar, satellite images, etc. (especially with Atlantic storms)

Atlantic Total (2001 thru 2023): 412 tropical PowerPoints and 15,327 slides
Eastern Pacific Total (2001 thru 2023): 462 tropical PowerPoints and 11,151 slides.
Note: There's not a whole lot of archived satellite/radar imagery for East Pacific storms which is why the slide count is lower overall
Grand Total Count (for both Atlantic/Eastern Pacific): 874 tropical PowerPoints and 26,478 slides
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I'd love to see it eventually!
 
Atlantic said:
I'd love to see it eventually!
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DM me. I'll be glad to send you ones I've already done or if you have a specific storm you want to see. Just let me know.
 
JPWX said:
DM me. I'll be glad to send you ones I've already done or if you have a specific storm you want to see. Just let me know.
Click to expand...
I’ll DM you when I get my school computer on Monday.
 
2024 is the first season since 2020 that all categories finished above average in the Atlantic Basin

18 Named Storms (average is 14)
11 Hurricanes (average is 7)
5 Major Hurricanes (average is 3)

161.1 ACE (average is 122 ACE) (Correct me if I am wrong)
 
Atlantic said:
2024 is the first season since 2020 that all categories finished above average in the Atlantic Basin

18 Named Storms (average is 14)
11 Hurricanes (average is 7)
5 Major Hurricanes (average is 3)

161.1 ACE (average is 122 ACE) (Correct me if I am wrong)
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Yep. That is correct though average ACE is 123.
 
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