akt1985
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- 1,219
- Location
- Madison, Alabama
How will Rafael impact the Bama/LSU game Saturday Night in Baton Rouge?
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- Messages
- 650
- Location
- Columbus, OH
This hurricane season was still horrible despite underperforming what we said it would be before it started. Imagine if August and September ended up doing what we thought they would do. It’s remarkable it ended up getting these numbers despite the inactivity the peak season brought.
I was looking at the GEFS model earlier today and there are signs (at least on that model) of some more possible mischief in the SW Caribbean after the current 10 \ 50.
GEFS had a 976 mb member in the SW Caribbean in early December (I take that with a grain of salt and advise everyone to do the same.)
GEFS had a 976 mb member in the SW Caribbean in early December (I take that with a grain of salt and advise everyone to do the same.)
SouthFLwx
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- Messages
- 185
- Location
- Boca Raton, Florida
My theory is that this season is performing as expected, it’s just delayed. Peak season activity is normally in late August-early September, but this time, it was late September-early October.
It took a nap and overslept a bit, so it had to make up for the early September lull!
SouthFLwx
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- 185
- Location
- Boca Raton, Florida
Lmao yeah, early October is the new early September.
- Messages
- 2,837
- Location
- Smithville MS
The MJO played a key role in the inactivity. Still everything ended up above normal (tropical systems, named storms, hurricanes, majors, and ACE). I would argue that there needs to be a change more towards impact driven forecasts than the whole number driven forecast (I include myself when I say that). That's what people got all upset over was what the amount of forecasted storms that were expected vs. what actually happened. All in all, this season was very similar to 2018 in terms of total amount of storms (15 in 2018 vs. 17 this year). No La Nina this season as it basically stayed Neutral ENSO. 2018 season was Neutral ENSO. Gulf Coast had 3 tropical landfalls in 2018 vs. 5 tropical landfalls this season. So that's very interesting.
I really think numbers-games are broadly a setup for failure because it sets specific expectations for folks, which isn't necessarily their fault, it's just how our brains tend to work. It's also part of why the SPC tends to only talk about categorical risk levels and not so much percentages anymore.
KevinH
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- 2,511
- Location
- West Central GA
I will see your 80% chance of 7 day development from earlier, and raise you AND the chance of development to 90%
ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
100 PM EST Tue Nov 12 2024
For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:
1. Central and Western Caribbean Sea:
Disorganized showers and thunderstorms over the central Caribbean Sea are associated with a broad area of low pressure.
Environmental conditions appear conducive for development, and a tropical depression is likely to form within the next two to three days while the system moves slowly westward into the western
Caribbean Sea. Afterward, further development is likely while the disturbance meanders over the western Caribbean Sea through the weekend. The system is forecast begin moving slowly northwestward by early next week. Interests across the western and northwestern Caribbean Sea should monitor the progress of this system.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...60 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...90 percent.
KevinH
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- 2,511
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- West Central GA
I asked this person what timeframe this was and they said Tue/Wed of next week. I think this is supposed to end up becoming “Sara”??????
jiharris0220
Member
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- 1,589
- Location
- Wichita Falls
I disagree with the notion that MJO had a major impact on the inactivity through mid/late August-early September.
Many seasons had their peaks during suppressive phases with 2017 being an example, but remember the reason for this is that MJO influences lag behind phases. For Example:
The Late August early September shut down was mostly like caused by onset +NAO which wrecked the +AMO signal present before. This allowed for stronger than normal dry air intrusions alongside with the cooler waters creating stability.
200mb temperatures were far above average, record breaking in places over the Iberian peninsula and subtropics. These warm upper level temperatures also created stability over the Atlantic.
All this excessive warmth located mostly above 30dgr north was the likely cause for the monsoon trough over Africa to shift towards its highest latitude on record. As you guys recall, tropical waves were exiting off as far north as Morocco.
Not to mention that northernly displaced wave trains are known to increase dry air intrusions off of Africa as well.
All of these factors, and of course along with unfavorable MJO placement helped with completely shutting down an active early September. The fact that the Atlantic still managed to be hyperactive pretty much confirms had this period been active the extremely high ACE numbers would’ve verified.
Many seasons had their peaks during suppressive phases with 2017 being an example, but remember the reason for this is that MJO influences lag behind phases. For Example:
The Late August early September shut down was mostly like caused by onset +NAO which wrecked the +AMO signal present before. This allowed for stronger than normal dry air intrusions alongside with the cooler waters creating stability.
200mb temperatures were far above average, record breaking in places over the Iberian peninsula and subtropics. These warm upper level temperatures also created stability over the Atlantic.
All this excessive warmth located mostly above 30dgr north was the likely cause for the monsoon trough over Africa to shift towards its highest latitude on record. As you guys recall, tropical waves were exiting off as far north as Morocco.
Not to mention that northernly displaced wave trains are known to increase dry air intrusions off of Africa as well.
All of these factors, and of course along with unfavorable MJO placement helped with completely shutting down an active early September. The fact that the Atlantic still managed to be hyperactive pretty much confirms had this period been active the extremely high ACE numbers would’ve verified.
Looks to be, though not entirely clear where to-be Sara will go, Euro and GFS are now agreeing on a system affecting southern Florida.