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wx_guy
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We now have Patty in the North Atlantic, and the Caribbean spot is up to 60/80
wx_guy
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The 12z hurricane models (especially the two HAFS) are coming in HOT for 97L...the HAFS pair want to take this to near Cat 5 strength before it slams into Cuba.
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That is a concern as the Caribbean is still very warm. The only November Category 5 in the Atlantic was the 1932 Cuba Hurricane. Of course, I still believe that Iota (2020) was a category 5 for at least a brief time.
wx_guy
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Curious about the westward track on the official cone, whereas much of the guidance wants to have it turn north towards the Panhandle.
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Zeta might be a good analog for future Rafael. A friend of mine brought up Zeta 2020 this afternoon and it really intrigued me.
So here's what the WPC has for Tuesday currently with Rafael south of Cuba with frontal system near MS River and how the WPC map from October 28th, 2020 looked with Zeta. Both this one and Zeta had frontal systems involved in the mix.
You may ask well that frontal system should push Rafael more towards Florida and be a Florida landfall. Which could still happen. I'm not discounting anything yet, but two key takeaways from NWS Memphis afternoon discussion show how this ends up further west (not to Texas though):
1. The front is expected to stall across the region through late
week, as the main trough dampens and lifts northeast of the
region. Deep southwesterly flow will setup across the region on
Thursday in response to another deepening trough over the Four
Corners Region. The stalled front will back north of the region
on Thursday.
2. This system`s track will need to be closely monitored, as it has the
potential to interact with a mid-latitude cyclone in the Lower
Mississippi Valley next weekend. Both Ensemble and Deterministic
guidance suggest that tropical moisture will interact with a
frontal boundary over the Mid-South next weekend. Significant
rainfall could occur over portions of the Mid-South as PWATs climb
above 2 inches. Stay tuned.
So here's what the WPC has for Tuesday currently with Rafael south of Cuba with frontal system near MS River and how the WPC map from October 28th, 2020 looked with Zeta. Both this one and Zeta had frontal systems involved in the mix.
You may ask well that frontal system should push Rafael more towards Florida and be a Florida landfall. Which could still happen. I'm not discounting anything yet, but two key takeaways from NWS Memphis afternoon discussion show how this ends up further west (not to Texas though):
1. The front is expected to stall across the region through late
week, as the main trough dampens and lifts northeast of the
region. Deep southwesterly flow will setup across the region on
Thursday in response to another deepening trough over the Four
Corners Region. The stalled front will back north of the region
on Thursday.
2. This system`s track will need to be closely monitored, as it has the
potential to interact with a mid-latitude cyclone in the Lower
Mississippi Valley next weekend. Both Ensemble and Deterministic
guidance suggest that tropical moisture will interact with a
frontal boundary over the Mid-South next weekend. Significant
rainfall could occur over portions of the Mid-South as PWATs climb
above 2 inches. Stay tuned.
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Rafael I believe is gonna be similar to what we saw happen with Gordon 2018 at landfall on the Gulf coast. NHC has it nearing the Southeast Louisiana coast by Sunday. It's not going to Texas and it can only trend so far east due to HP (High Pressure) blocking. What I sent to my meteorology chat group this morning: So let's say that it hits southeast Louisiana Sunday or early next week. It'll be dealing with shear on landfall approach meaning Rafael will be east side weighted with everything on the east side. Meaning that a Southeast Louisiana landfall would put coastal MS and Alabama in the highest risk for impacts.
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Yeah. Don't be surprised if this goes rapid deepening before it reaches Cuba. Favorable MJO, weak shear, and very warm SST. You can't ask for a better atmospheric environment for RI.
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Really impressed with how quickly that eye consolidated. Wouldn't be surprised if this thing hits strong category 2 before landfall.
TornadoFan
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TornadoFan
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And we officially have Hurricane Rafael
BayouWeatherGeek
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