Severe WX 2/5/2020-2/6/2020 Severe Weather

[Kory]

Does the HRRR over do SB Cape? It has cape values of 1000+ j/kg all the way up into the TN Valley this afternoon/evening.

I wouldn’t be shocked if we get those kinds of instability values later today. We have some pretty cold upper level temps moving in and already have 1500 J/KG CAPE over LA/MS.

 

[MichelleH]

The only tornado event I am aware of in this area on this date (I'm really familiar with today's date ) was the Super Tuesday Outbreak of 2008. Praying we don't even come close.

 

[darkskys25]

Reed is on the hype train. When is he not. He called for a tornado outbreak for the last event. That was not correct. This time he says it might be an outbreak or might turn into one. This is his thinking today. I think the map is fine face value but im not on the hype train.

 

[Kory]

Weed Trimmer calls for an outbreak nearly every trough passing through the eastern half of the US. I think the duration of this may lead to some problems given onset this afternoon and then through the overnight hours.

 

[Kory]

And we’ve got an enhanced from Central MS into NW AL. I suspect it’ll get expanded later on further eastward.

 

[Bama Ravens]

 

[MichelleH]

And we’ve got an enhanced from Central MS into NW AL. I suspect it’ll get expanded later on further eastward.

I'm already on the eastern border of the enhanced...lovely.

 

[RollTide18]

10% TOR hatched in that area as well.

 

[Taylor Campbell]

10% TOR hatched in that area as well.

That was the reason for the upgrade.

 

[Taylor Campbell]

That was the reason for the upgrade.

But there will also be a better chance to see something severe overall in this area in close proximity to the surface low and frontal boundary.

 

[Taylor Campbell]

I’d also watch the coastal areas and southern portions of MS, AL, and Florida panhandle to see more of the severe that today has to offer.

 

[GA Stormchaser]

Interesting radar trends just north of Phil Campbell......

 

[Refela]

I'm already on the eastern border of the enhanced...lovely.

Same here.

 

[Kory]

A lot of coastal convection right now. Will have to see if it messes with low level trajectories for later today.

 

[Gail]

I'm already on the eastern border of the enhanced...lovely.

I’m right in the middle of it.

 

[Gail]

...and we have a tornado watch until 6 PM

 

[Bama Ravens]

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Tornado Watch Number 22
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1150 AM CST Wed Feb 5 2020

The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a

* Tornado Watch for portions of
Central Louisiana
Central and Southwest Mississippi

* Effective this Wednesday morning and evening from 1150 AM until
600 PM CST.

* Primary threats include...
A few tornadoes likely with a couple intense tornadoes possible
Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible
Isolated large hail events to 1.5 inches in diameter possible

SUMMARY...Thunderstorms are expected to continue to develop over
central Louisiana this afternoon and spread northeastward across the
watch area. A few supercell storms are possible, capable of
damaging winds and tornadoes.

Probability of 2 or more tornadoes	High (70%)​
Probability of 1 or more strong (EF2-EF5) tornadoes	Mod (40%)​

 

[NorthBamaWX]

do you guys think those storms forming around the gulf coast will help us here in North Alabama getting real severe

 

[Bama Ravens]

A lot of messy convection along the MS & AL coasts, and into FL panhandle. Wonder how that might impact things.

 

[warneagle]

The Day 2 ENH has also been significantly expanded.