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2/19/26- 2/20/26 - severe threat discussion

WeathermanLeprechaun said:
I've found radars seem to be detecting stronger returns from the cells aloft but if you go to the radar closest, when they're initiating, they're weaker? Really interesting
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I think thats due to radar beams hitting higher up in the storm whereas the majority of the beams closer are hitting low level precip? I dunno im just making an educated guess
 
WeathermanLeprechaun said:
They still are though? Once again, that could change should they overcome the factors but there's nothing wrong with pointing it out. Not to get complacent or too ahead of myself here. We will see
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Right. But I am just saying “so therefore they are struggling like i expected from storms today” is a bit premature to say is all :)
 
Despite earlier thoughts from many (including Trey) that the ongoing storms from early in the day would evolve into the main show, they seem to be dying out. Earlier dominant cell now east of Centralia is just about gone.

Edit *Actually looks better on VWX than LSX now. Might have perked up a bit over the last couple scans.
 
CheeselandSkies said:
Despite earlier thoughts from many (including Trey) that the ongoing storms from early in the day would evolve into the main show, they seem to be dying out. Earlier dominant cell now east of Centralia is just about gone.
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Yeah, seems to be the warming aloft even perhaps doing that. That's should make more space for the warm sector now if I'm not mistaken
 
CheeselandSkies said:
Wondering if some of those cells down along the Ohio River west of Louisville might end up being the bigger players today.
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Admittedly, i do think those cells may pose a sigtor threat. That thermo/shear environment is the same as the IL/IN corridor. Should any of those corridors sustain, something could happen
 
We should use terms like "bullish" and "bearish" when making predictions on storm intensity because "good" and "bad" are too ambiguous. "Good" for a storm chaser is much different than "good" for a resident in the path of the storm. Can't tell what you guys mean half the time lol.
 
Current Surface Based Lifted Index. Everywhere inside that -4 circle is actually closer to -5 or more when I pull readings in there.

LI > 2 No significant activity
0 < LI < 2 Showers/thunderstorms possible with other source of lift
-2 < LI < 0 Thunderstorms possible
-4 < LI < -2 Thunderstorms more probable, but few, if any severe
LI < -4 Severe thunderstorms possible
LI < -9: Extremely unstable; severe storms and tornadoes possible.

1771528639624.png

Here is the RAP Lid Strength Index for 5 PM CST. Anything less than 2 means convection can usually break through. The whole area of interest is at a 1. Seems to me like the cap is just as strong as it needs to be to keep convection isolated.

1771529235793.png

Here's a list of all the parameters in the main area of interest. Take with a grain of salt because i'm always overly bullish, but kinda seems like the perfect environment for some moderately strong tornadoes already and there's still plenty of daylight left.

1771529624813.png
 
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