2/19/26- 2/20/26 - severe threat discussion

[Tennie]

Maybe after this event is in the bag we should create a thread dedicated to researching strong/violent tornadoes associated with low-topped convection.

 

[Ozonelayer]

Maybe after this event is in the bag we should create a thread dedicated to researching strong/violent tornadoes associated with low-topped convection.

Agreed, should be rather interesting.

Speaking of, these "mini" supercells are pretty common in cold core setups. Neat!

 

[Kds86z]

 

[UncleJuJu98]

This is what AI has to say about low-topped tornado events. Any objections?

View attachment 50675

The most notable low top tornado I could find was the 2007 Elie, Manitoba F5.

I mean a majority of the southeast winter season tornado events are probably low topped, seen a couple of ef3s in my area from two low topped storms if I'm not misTken.

 

[CheeselandSkies]

Elie was not low topped. That storm occurred in a pretty explosive thermodynamic environment. I would not recommend using Google AI as a sole trust of information. It's not using properly validated sources the majority of the time.

AI searches just amalgamate what they find on the Internet and spit out something that sounds plausible, and is *mostly* right often enough, but there's no actual thought, research or "intelligence" in it.

 

[Tennie]

AI searches just amalgamate what they find on the Internet and spit out something that sounds plausible, and is *mostly* right often enough, but there's no actual thought, research or "intelligence" in it.

They still haven't (yet) gotten to the "self-aware" phase. I'll leave it up to you to decide whether that's a good or bad thing.

 

[Ebaad Jaffery]

Troy cell looks nice

 

[Kds86z]

Tor watch out

 

[cincywx]

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 10
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
115 PM EST THU FEB 19 2026

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
SOUTHEAST ILLINOIS
SOUTHERN INDIANA
WESTERN AND CENTRAL KENTUCKY

* EFFECTIVE THIS THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 115 PM UNTIL
900 PM EST.

* PRIMARY THREATS INCLUDE...
A FEW TORNADOES AND A COUPLE INTENSE TORNADOES POSSIBLE
SCATTERED LARGE HAIL AND ISOLATED VERY LARGE HAIL EVENTS TO 2
INCHES IN DIAMETER POSSIBLE
SCATTERED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS TO 70 MPH POSSIBLE

SUMMARY...THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS ANTICIPATED THIS AFTERNOON
FROM SOUTHEAST ILLINOIS INTO SOUTHERN INDIANA AND WESTERN/CENTRAL
KENTUCKY. IN THESE AREAS, INCREASING LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL LEAD TO
AIRMASS DESTABILIZATION. STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR IS IN PLACE,
SUPPORTING THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME OF THESE STORMS TO ORGANIZE INTO
SUPERCELLS. ALL SEVERE HAZARDS ARE POSSIBLE WITH ANY SUPERCELLS THAT
DEVELOP, INCLUDING VERY LARGE HAIL GREATER THAN 2" IN DIAMETER AND
TORNADOES. LOW-LEVEL SHEAR IS STRONG ENOUGH TO SUPPORT THE POTENTIAL
FOR A STRONG (EF2+) TORNADO.

50/30 probs

 

[Central Ohio Wx]

50/30 probs

 

[Kds86z]

 

[Grand Poo Bah]

widespread 1500 SB CAPE now as well

 

[WeathermanLeprechaun]

widespread 1500 SB CAPE now as well

View attachment 50677

I can still see warming aloft. Storms in the tor watch are fairly anemic and struggling to me atm. But overperforming CAPE has been interesting

 

[Ozonelayer]

As already stated, SBCAPE+Low level shear have uptrended.

If a storm maneges to mature and go surface based, then a pretty solid environment is in place for a few strong tornadoes or maybe even an intense tornado if the cards are played right by this system.

Warming aloft is still an issue though, but if they break through that then this event could get pretty interesting.

 

[Kds86z]

I can still see warming aloft. Storms in the tor watch are fairly anemic and struggling to me atm. But overperforming CAPE has been interesting

Well it’s wayyy early, as far as struggling but we’ll see.

 

[WeathermanLeprechaun]

Well it’s wayyy early, as far as struggling but we’ll see.

Didn't mean as in "ah they're FCAD" but they are. They're elevated and not rooted yet so therefore they are struggling like i expected from storms today.

Doesn't mean they will forever

 

[warneagle]

would've been super cool to have an 1800z sounding from anywhere within 200 miles of the risk area but oh well

 

[Kds86z]

Didn't mean as in "ah they're FCAD" but they are. They're elevated and not rooted yet so therefore they are struggling like i expected from storms today.

Yeah but it’s still early

 

[WeathermanLeprechaun]

Yeah but it’s still early

They still are though? Once again, that could change should they overcome the factors but there's nothing wrong with pointing it out. Not to get complacent or too ahead of myself here. We will see

 

[WeathermanLeprechaun]

I've found radars seem to be detecting stronger returns from the cells aloft but if you go to the radar closest, when they're initiating, they're weaker? Really interesting