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2/19/26- 2/20/26 - severe threat discussion

New MD out. 80 percent probability that a watch gets issued.

Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 98

Severe weather, tornado, thunderstorm, fire weather, storm report, tornado watch, severe thunderstorm watch, mesoscale discussion, convective outlook products from the Storm Prediction Center.
www.spc.noaa.gov
 
Grand Poo Bah said:
This is what AI has to say about low-topped tornado events. Any objections?

View attachment 50675

The most notable low top tornado I could find was the 2007 Elie, Manitoba F5.
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Elie was not low topped. That storm occurred in a pretty explosive thermodynamic environment. I would not recommend using Google AI as a sole trust of information. It's not using properly validated sources the majority of the time.
 
WeathermanLeprechaun said:
Elie was not low topped. That storm occurred in a pretty explosive thermodynamic environment. I would not recommend using Google AI as a sole trust of information. It's not using properly validated sources the majority of the time.
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In that case I can't find any examples of a low-topped tornado over EF3 intensity. Granted there doesn't seem to be much discussion about the topic anywhere.

Agreed on not trusting AI, in this case I was just using it as a starting point for discussion. Getting a 10% hatched and such a bullish forecast for this setup is interesting.
 
Grand Poo Bah said:
In that case I can't find any examples of a low-topped tornado over EF3 intensity. Granted there doesn't seem to be much discussion about the topic anywhere.

Agreed on not trusting AI, in this case I was just using it as a starting point for discussion. Getting a 10% hatched and such a bullish forecast for this setup is interesting.
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Ohio Veterans Day 2002 F4.
 
Kds86z said:
Ohio Veterans Day 2002 F4.
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data.cincinnati.com

EF4 tornado on Nov. 10, 2002 15:15 PM EST

On Sunday, November 10th, 2002 a cold front trailed from a deep surface low over northern Lake Michigan into central Missouri. Ahead of the cold front the KILN (Wilmington, OH) 1200 UTC sounding showed an unstable airmass with CAPE (Convectively Available Potential Energy) of 1148 J/kg and a...
data.cincinnati.com data.cincinnati.com
 
Central Ohio Wx said:
Oh, Van Wert-Roselms. I can't remember if that was low-topped or not.
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It was . ^

A small low topped supercell developed ahead of the line over Blackford county Indiana and was moving northeast at 50 MPH. This parent supercell produced 3 seperate tornadoes in Indiana (see StormData, Indiana, Northeast for more information) before crossing into Ohio. There the supercell intensified and a tornado touched down in Van Wert County Ohio, reaching F4 in strength as it reached the city of Van Wert. The tornado then moved northeast with a total path length of 53 miles, producing F3 damage in Paulding and Putnam counties, and F0 damage in Defiance and Henry counties.
 
Grand Poo Bah said:
In that case I can't find any examples of a low-topped tornado over EF3 intensity. Granted there doesn't seem to be much discussion about the topic anywhere.

Agreed on not trusting AI, in this case I was just using it as a starting point for discussion. Getting a 10% hatched and such a bullish forecast for this setup is interesting.
Click to expand...
Taylorville IL was a low topped EF3 on 12/1/18
 
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