2/19/26- 2/20/26 - severe threat discussion

[Ozonelayer]

AND from the left field in Pikeville, KY:

 

[Kds86z]

 

[Kds86z]

 

[WeathermanLeprechaun]

Those storms out west actually are in a heavily capped environment. Tornado potential might be conditional and limited. Decreasing instability along with strong warm air aloft means they haven't exactly got a long window left.

 

[ColdFront]

View attachment 50716

AND from the left field in Pikeville, KY:

100% terrain induced. That mountainous upslope triple point of KY/WVA/VA makes storms spin. I’ve anecdotally seen this happen countless times

 

[akt1985]

Hope that the PDS tornado warned storm misses Bloomington and Indiana University to the south.

 

[akt1985]

100% terrain induced. That mountainous upslope triple point of KY/WVA/VA makes storms spin. I’ve anecdotally seen this happen countless times

Kind of like Sand Mountain in Alabama.

 

[Kds86z]

 

[ColdFront]

Kind of like Sand Mountain in Alabama.

Correct. Just like it. They’re usually quick spin ups, but I’ve seen this on the southeastern KY/VA border as well. I even observed it and commented on it in the 5/16 thread from this year. That entire border region seems to enhance spin when storms cross it.

 

[Kds86z]

 

[ColdFront]

Looks straight out of 3/2/12

 

[Kds86z]

 

[cincywx]

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0102
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0526 PM CST THU FEB 19 2026

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF WESTERN/SOUTHERN INDIANA

CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 10...

VALID 192326Z - 200100Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 10 CONTINUES.

SUMMARY...TORNADO WATCH #10 CONTINUES UNTIL 0200 UTC. A SUPERCELL
THUNDERSTORM CURRENTLY TRACKING ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE
WATCH IN FAR WESTERN/SOUTHERN INDIANA IS THE PRIMARY FOCUS FOR
SEVERE ACTIVITY IN THE SHORT TERM, AND HAS A HISTORY OF ROTATION AND
BRIEF TORNADOES.

DISCUSSION...THE SUPERCELL THUNDERSTORM TRACKING ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PORTIONS OF TORNADO WATCH #10 IS THE PRIMARY CONCERN FOR SEVERE
WEATHER IN THE NEXT 1-2 HOURS, WITH A HISTORY OF ROTATION AND
TORNADO PRODUCTION. WHILE FURTHER NORTH IN THE COOLER AIR, VWP
PROFILES FROM KIND SHOW STRONG CURVATURE OF THE HODOGRAPH IN THE
LOWEST LEVELS WHICH WILL HELP SUPPORT CONTINUED MESOCYCLONE AND
TORNADO DEVELOPMENT, WITH VALUES IN THE 0-500M LAYER 120 M2/S2. EVEN
FURTHER SOUTH AWAY FROM THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY, PROFILES FROM KLVX
STILL SHOW STRONG SUPPORT FOR LOW-TOPPED SUPERCELL LONGEVITY.
HOWEVER, SOME UNCERTAINTY EXISTS IN HOW FAR EASTWARD CURRENT
CONVECTION WILL BE MAINTAINED GIVEN ONLY MODEST DEWPOINTS IN THE
LOW-TO-MID 50S F. IN SPITE OF THIS, THE COOLER TEMPERATURES ALOFT
AND BUOYANCY EVIDENT IN PROXIMITY SOUNDING PROFILES, COMBINED WITH
THE STRONG KINEMATICS DISCUSSED AND HISTORY OF TORNADO PRODUCTION,
THE EXPECTATION IS THAT SEVERE CONVECTION SHOULD CONTINUE EASTWARD
INTO CENTRAL INDIANA FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT TWO HOURS. THIS SUPERCELL
WILL CONTINUE TO BE CAPABLE OF ALL HAZARDS, INCLUDING A STRONG
TORNADO.

..HALBERT/GLEASON.. 02/19/2026

 

[Kds86z]

 

[Kds86z]

 

[Kds86z]

 

[WeathermanLeprechaun]

They seem to think it's gonna persist since it's a mature supercell

Mature supercells can actually persist in low instability environments but this one looks to have lost its steam for now

 

[Clancy]

radar coverage in southern illinois is kind of crap, huh? nothing has a good look at those three isolated cells there, including the tornado-warned one that's about to cross I-67.

Yeah, the radar hole there is atrocious. Kinda true for this entire region, but especially bad there.

 

[TornadoFan]

Tornado warning for the Bloomfield, IN storm.

 

[Clancy]

Storm just SW of Indianapolis just went TOR-warned. Very healthy hook on it.