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2/15/25 SE Severe Threat

TornadoFan17 said:
She's doing better than most. At least she took shelter.

It is sad how big the disconnect is with weather and the general public.

The amount of people that can't even point out their state on a map is a lot more than you would think.
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I think I remember there being a story about when the Vietnam war was going on, nobody even knew where Vietnam was-- I remember having to learn states and capitals in elementary school. I guess that isn't a thing anymore.
 
wx_guy said:
The 0z sounding from Birmingham. Interesting that the SARS analog is 71% TOR. Note that the tool is statistical in nature based on past historical soundings, so the limits of that should be acknowledged. But still very interesting.

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I'm not sure if it was Trey or someone else, but have heard from others that the SARS analogs can be pretty useful to determine whether a setup that looks nominally conducive would actually produce in reality. Not any kind of be-all-end-all, but another tool in the toolbox. As I say this, SPC is worried about just how much SRH there is all the way through AL.
Mesoscale Discussion 0101
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0837 PM CST Sat Feb 15 2025

Areas affected...Central Gulf States

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely

Valid 160237Z - 160330Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...95 percent

SUMMARY...New Tornado Watch will be issued across the central Gulf
States by 0330z.

DISCUSSION...Fast-moving upper trough is ejecting across eastern
OK/TX and the associated cold front is surging through the lower MS
Valley region, currently stretching from eastern AR into
south-central TX. An expansive corridor of pre-frontal convection
has developed ahead of the short wave from the lower OH Valley,
southwest into central LA. Over the last hour or so, thunderstorm
activity appears to be gradually sharpening across the lower MS
Valley with at least two bands of strong/severe convection that will
soon spread east of the MS River. Surface temperatures remain in the
lower 70s across much of the warm sector immediately ahead of this
activity, and mid 60s dew points have returned to central MS. While
tornado activity has been somewhat sparse to this point, intense
0-3km SRH warrants concern. Latest thinking is updrafts may continue
to mature and longer-lived supercells are certainly possible, though
an organized QLCS will be the primary storm mode. This MCS will
advance across the remainder of the central Gulf States later
tonight.

..Darrow/Hart.. 02/16/2025

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...MRX...FFC...OHX...BMX...HUN...MOB...MEG...JAN...
LIX...

LAT...LON 30999162 35018822 34998491 30998843 30999162
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cg9450 said:
I think I remember there being a story about when the Vietnam war was going on, nobody even knew where Vietnam was-- I remember having to learn states and capitals in elementary school. I guess that isn't a thing anymore.
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In one of my meteorology classes last fall, we were looking at a 500mb map and talking about vorticity. My professor was talking about vorticity over Iowa on this specific map.

A girl raised her hand and had to ask where Iowa was.

Anyways sorry for the off-topic post.
 
Clancy said:
I'm not sure if it was Trey or someone else, but have heard from others that the SARS analogs can be pretty useful to determine whether a setup that looks nominally conducive would actually produce in reality. Not any kind of be-all-end-all, but another tool in the toolbox. As I say this, SPC is worried about just how much SRH there is all the way through AL.
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Yeah I noticed there wording. I wonder if the tornado probs will be higher this watch than the previous
 
I must say I love the new addition to the MD graphics! I don't know if anyone has mentioned it yet, but it's really interesting to see inside the SPC's internal forecasts. In this case, it looks like an EF3 is plausible somewhere and significantly severe winds of 75-90 mph are possible (tell me why again the hatch was removed?)



1739674801054.png
 
wx_guy said:
I must say I love the new addition to the MD graphics! I don't know if anyone has mentioned it yet, but it's really interesting to see inside the SPC's internal forecasts. In this case, it looks like an EF3 is plausible somewhere and significantly severe winds of 75-90 mph are possible (tell me why again the hatch was removed?)



View attachment 33911
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I absolutely love that too! I messaged my friend Patrick Marsh about it and how much I love how SPC is working on new techniques to better message these threats.
 
eosaurora13 said:
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So combining this threat info with the MD's threat info:


A few tornadoes likely with up to 150 mph EF3 possible on the high end.
Widespread gusts of up to 70 mph likely, with up to 75-90 mph gusts possible on the high end.
Isolated hail of up to ping pong size possible.
 
I picked the wrong night to
Sweating Heat Wave GIF
quit sniffing glue.
 
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