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2/15/25 SE Severe Threat

Hmmm... Die Hard, Airplane and Bugs Bunny references... looks like it's my turn to reference something
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cg9450 said:
There's a lot of folks who probably don't have any idea about tonight. It seems the more access to info we have the less informed we get.
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That’s why it is IMPERATIVE that those who live in Dixie Alley have multiple ways to receive alerts and updates. If they can’t get a water radio (yet), then they can download an app on their phone.

While chances of being struck my a tornado in any given city are typically low, it only takes ONE storm to ruin your day… er… night??
 
KevinH said:
That’s why it is IMPERATIVE that those who live in Dixie Alley have multiple ways to receive alerts and updates. If they can’t get a water radio (yet), then they can download an app on their phone.

While chances of being struck my a tornado in any given city are typically low, it only takes ONE storm to ruin your day… er… night??
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I think Jason Simpson said it best: "Not every event is an April 27th, but the one storm that changes your life is your own April 27th."
 
Things are about to kick off here.

Almost always at or right after bedtime for me. Next time, come at 5AM please. At least my day won’t be messed up too badly lol
 
TornadoFan17 said:
She's doing better than most. At least she took shelter.

It is sad how big the disconnect is with weather and the general public.

The amount of people that can't even point out their state on a map is a lot more than you would think.
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I agree. Our Met here has said the same thing. I printed out the map of counties in AL/GA. They are super helpful when warnings are issued.
 
MichelleH said:
My sweet son went and got me a "coffee shake" as I call them so I can stay awake until it's past us.
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There's a restaurant close to my workplace that sells Monster Energy shakes - I haven't tried them yet, but considering doctors recently found some blood in my Monster Energy stream, I should probably get around to trying one :P
 
Clancy said:
I'm not sure if it was Trey or someone else, but have heard from others that the SARS analogs can be pretty useful to determine whether a setup that looks nominally conducive would actually produce in reality. Not any kind of be-all-end-all, but another tool in the toolbox. As I say this, SPC is worried about just how much SRH there is all the way through AL.
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So my Master's is in Statistics, so the SARS database appeals to me. In my view, to be a realistic use, the SARS needs to match/loosely match 8-10+ (if it only matches like 3, it's not really useful). If it meets that requirement, though, the % TOR it gives could be a reasonable likelihood to estimate a tornado in the area.
Using this and the 02z HRRR, here's a few soundings and locations just before the main line comes through:

1) Birmingham -- too few matches to be reliable

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2) Montgomery -- probably enough matches to be somewhat reliable

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3) Dothan -- enough to be reliable

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