2/15/25 SE Severe Threat

[CheeselandSkies]

Phew, it's gonna go east of Rolling Fork

Warning extended. Couplet is modest but persistent. Located just northwest of Holly Bluff.

 

[UncleJuJu98]

Rolling fork storm should be getting a lot more SRH helicity soon. Its on a favorable path according to the HRRR, if it can stay away from congealing in the line.

 

[Clancy]

Looks like it might be taking advantage of increasingly favorable conditions.

 

[TheSuckZone]

Symmetry on the velocity just seems too fishy for hail spikes, even though VIL shows a good bit of hail in these storms. Looking at it from KPAH, KHPX and KOHX shows there is definitely a strong signature there.
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Been kind of bizarre to look at. It's almost like storm outflow is being pushed back into the line and causing these wild signatures to show up

 

[UncleJuJu98]

Man. That Paris storm is just bonkers. I wish there were some storm spotters who could get some ground truth

 

[Clancy]

Been kind of bizarre to look at. It's almost like storm outflow is being pushed back into the line and causing these wild signatures to show up

Right. Basic wisdom would tell you this is a potentially intense tornado with a TDS, but it's not lining up with reflectivity (I checked to make sure scans are chronologically synchronized). At the same time, I'm not convinced there isn't a strong meso in this location, so I'm not sure what to make of it.

 

[UncleJuJu98]

That's gotta be a tds

 

[KevinH]

Wind or tornado?

Wind driven

 

[Teche]

extreme isolated CC drop near Paris and possible power flashes on a skycam (radar omega)

 

[Clancy]

The presentation of that couplet seems to have diminished, and OHX seems to be going with SVRs for now. One thing's for sure, I'm not jealous of MEG/OHX's job tonight.

 

[wx_guy]

1-hour tornado threat from StormNet:

 

[Teche]

extreme isolated CC drop near Paris and possible power flashes on a skycam (radar omega)

 

[MMWX]

Storms getting out ahead of the QLCS in SW MS are worth keeping an eye on in my opinion. Not showing anything special as of right now but will show what the environment is like as they move toward east MS and into AL

 

[UncleJuJu98]

Nice hook near big sandy, that may wrap up soon

 

[UncleJuJu98]

1-hour tornado threat from StormNet:

View attachment 33891

50-70% that's relatively high

 

[UncleJuJu98]

The velocity scans are just wild on the line in Tennessee, no ways around it theres gunna be some tornados unwarned tonight.

 

[Anti Marine Layer]

Weather report in Northern Tennessee was showing fog/mist. Sounds more like Southern California.

 

[UncleJuJu98]

Dover Tennessee with the two scan lead up to a intense couplet

 

[Clancy]

02Z mesoscale notes. Instability is retreating southward from TN, faster than modelled. However, models seem to be underestimating the eastward intrusion of weak instability across AL, which could persist into the evening. If this is sustained by intensifying LLJ-based advection, this may set the stage for an enhanced threat across AL. Combined with effective SRH values of up to 500 m2/s2, the QLCS tornado threat would remain elevated deep into the nighttime hours. I wouldn't be surprised to see a lull for a few hours before storms once again intensify. As @TornadoFan17 stated, I would watch those little storms in LA into MS as they move NE. 00Z CAMs still showing substantial wind and tornado threat.

 

[wx_guy]

Here's the point forecast for StormNET for Florence, AL (I picked it since the storms are eventually headed that way...). Feel free to suggest another city, and I can post the results for it.