2/15/25 SE Severe Threat

Just called my mother in Smithville. She said it was 70° and warm. The sun is trying to break out and shine a couple of times.


What time do you imagine we will start to get live updates on this page?
 
AJS said:
I’m not too impressed either, but I have learned in set ups like this to never let my guard down as anything can happen.
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while not a perfect way to forecast, it seems today is going to be around 1200-1600 ML CAPE with 65 KT 0-6 KM Shear.

Ignoring the QLSC and CAPE part of today's risk everything else seems maxed out.

a side note is a new composite paramater is at 8.3 today (Tornadic Tilting and Stretching parameter (TTS))
the Super Outbreak had it at 7.1-32.4
however its also to note there was a 2003 April Forecasted Convective Amplification Deficiency event that had it at 15.7 , so it isn't too perfect.
 
Clancy said:
Main change at 1630Z is the addition of a 45% wind contour. SPC anticipates potentially prolific wind threat as the QLCS consolidates. NCAR's CAM analysis models, which I like to use as an additional reference point, maintains strong probabilities for damaging winds, and a secondary threat of tornadoes, well into the night all the way through the morning Sunday. CAM suites still suggest a potent QLCS tornado and damaging wind threat, and HRRR has picked up on some possible discrete activity just out ahead of the QLCS. Not sure it amounts to a meaningful threat, but the signal is there. Regardless of the threat for long-tracked tornadoes, everyone should be prepared for severe storms this evening through Sunday morning in the Deep South.
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Really liking your more detailed posts, keep it up man!
 
Definitely getting rapid clearing on visible satellite
 

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As others are mentioning, something that's a bit concerning for all of us is that there's no huge rain shield setting up right over I-20, like there often is in severe setups. TN/KY is getting slammed by flooding rains, but for the rest of us it's mostly dry.
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I’m very impressed with the clearing that occurred. In Trey’s most recent video the visible satellite looked like the cloud cover was not gonna budge. Instability should ramp up now and I can definitely see some development in the OWS being a possibility
 
Clancy said:
As others are mentioning, something that's a bit concerning for all of us is that there's no huge rain shield setting up right over I-20, like there often is in severe setups. TN/KY is getting slammed by flooding rains, but for the rest of us it's mostly dry.
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Memphis metro is clearing up despite not being forecasted to clear up this early (if at all).
 
Clancy said:
As others are mentioning, something that's a bit concerning for all of us is that there's no huge rain shield setting up right over I-20, like there often is in severe setups. TN/KY is getting slammed by flooding rains, but for the rest of us it's mostly dry.
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I can confirm my yard is basically a pool at this point, southern Kentucky.
 
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