1/21-1/22 Severe Potential

[rolltide_130]

Yikes.. we definitely need a thread for this one. Potential significant risk for areas South o I-20 tomorrow.. will post more detailed analysis once I'm on a computer.

 

[MichelleH]

I know the radar has been blowing up to our west tonight with tornado warnings.


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[rolltide_130]

Everyone from Birmingham southward needs to be on guard tomorrow.. model guidance has been consistently too low with moisture return with this system so far, and even if guidance is accurate, it will be adequate to maintain severe thunderstorms. We've already seen probably 1 strong tornado out of this system in E Texas today, and frankly the environment looks even more favorable over AL tomorrow, barring any flies in the ointment that have not yet shown themselves. This won't be a WIDESPREAD event, but I think we may see one or two tornadic supercells along or S of I-20 tomorrow afternoon, and I wouldn't rule out a significant tornado either..

 

[Kory]

Return flow trajectory doesn't look too impressive for a lot of AL. Lots of dews in the 50s, but closer to the coast where low to mid 60 dews can work in, we'll see more surface destabilization.

 

[WesL]

Added it to the sticky. Once we see some additional warnings or a watch we will throw a notice up for it.

 

[MichelleH]

I don't think we are in the warm sector here. It's cloudy, windy and quite chilly.

 

[Taylor Campbell]

Southwest Alabama looks like the spot to be according to high res models.

 

[MichelleH]

I noticed SPC also moved the marginal risk from about Shelby County south and the 2% tornado risk for mostly south AL.

 

[SouthernStorms]

The mets have been classifying this a a low to marginal event.

They are talking more about going back into drought conditions... so they don't seem concerned to me at all.

You guys seeing something different.?

 

[WesL]

Local Storm Report by NWS JAN: 4 S Taylorsville [Covington Co, MS] emergency mngr reports TORNADO at 09:21 AM CST -- trees down along hwy 37.

That storm now has a Tornado warning for Clarke and Jasper counties in MS until 10:45am. If it continues it's current track it would cross into Choctaw county in AL.

 

[WesL]

Now getting damage reports from Jones County 5 miles SE of Taylorsville, MS.

 

[WesL]

Jones County, MS tornado warning allowed to expire.
New TOR Warning for Kemper and Noxubee counties in MS. If they continue to move into AL they will be entering Pickens and Sumter. BMX has a Significant Weather Advisory issued for those counties (including Greene) at this time.

 

[Kory]

Lawd I’m too busy to be dealing with this pesky storm to my WSW.

 

[WesL]

Lawd I’m too busy to be dealing with this pesky storm to my WSW.

Just shake a broom at it. Doesn't looks BMX is going to bit and JAN just canceled the TOR warning for Noxubee, MS.

 

[Mike S]

anyone streaming? I checked Jackson stations earlier and nada.

 

[Equus]

Wow, didn't see that one coming. Amazing how we can go from deep freeze to severe weather event so quickly... well, a mild weekend in between but whatever. Nice to have a good solid rain again even if it will make work conditions messy tomorrow.

 

[WesL]

New Severe Thunderstorm Warning for Dallas County, AL until 1:45. Estimating 1in hail.

 

[Kory]

Wow, didn't see that one coming. Amazing how we can go from deep freeze to severe weather event so quickly... well, a mild weekend in between but whatever. Nice to have a good solid rain again even if it will make work conditions messy tomorrow.

That is what makes La Nina’s so volatile. The large temperature swings, strong gradient from large northern snowpack, and enhanced polar jet. I just don’t quite believe we will get through this spring without an event or two of note.

 

[KoD]

Was spring 2014 a La Nina year?

 

[Kory]

Was spring 2014 a La Nina year?

That was a cold ENSO neutral winter/spring.