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Severe Weather 2026

WeathermanLeprechaun said:
There's no real way to get one not contaminated. There is precip right over the parameter space hence the omega bars
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Yeah, I often run into that problem too, especially when trying to get one in close proximity to a simulated supercell on a CAM run.
 
Weatherguyx said:
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That cell near Fullerton Nebraska looks pretty photogenic and may drop a tornado based on how it's developing on chaser feeds. Very conditional though given it's welded into an MCS.
 
Low confidence call but some ML products have hinted at a tornado threat tomorrow in NW IA/S MN. Seems to me like low level stability would make for a overnight structure-show but until the 12z suite tomorrow, we won't call this one out. Models sniffing some sneaker destabilising at play?
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A mix of supercells, prefrontal convection and line segments should drive a tornado threat in the Mid-Atlantic today. Likely to be weak spinups so WATCH OUT for egregious tornado warnings..... /s. this should start as early as 19z-21z and continue into 02z-03z as everything goes linear before going offshore. Think QLCS production could definitely be up there today.

We may also have enough for supercell development later on in Central MN. I would say more structureshow than anything but nonzero tornado threat exists.

hear me out!

There may be enough to support a isolated spinup tomorrow with large hail in N IL. This areas in a general tstm risk for tomorrow but I think a Marginal Risk could eventually be needed for the area.
 
WeathermanLeprechaun said:
A mix of supercells, prefrontal convection and line segments should drive a tornado threat in the Mid-Atlantic today. Likely to be weak spinups so WATCH OUT for egregious tornado warnings..... /s. this should start as early as 19z-21z and continue into 02z-03z as everything goes linear before going offshore. Think QLCS production could definitely be up there today.

We may also have enough for supercell development later on in Central MN. I would say more structureshow than anything but nonzero tornado threat exists.

hear me out!

There may be enough to support a isolated spinup tomorrow with large hail in N IL. This areas in a general tstm risk for tomorrow but I think a Marginal Risk could eventually be needed for the area.
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yeah I did see that stormnet is picking up something tomorrow for N/NE IL, rrfs is also picking up some activity there. watching it carefully
 

This is a extremely helpful survey. If you want to distinguish AI gen photos from real tornadoes and give your thoughts on the current state of people using AI on graphics and videos, here you go.

I personally think it's unfortunate how many have forgot basic graphic skills. I'm inexperienced but remember when I managed to overlap the LLJ with composite reflectivity on 6/11 and made a basic graphic? Didn't use AI for this.
 

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jackhutwx said:
yeah I did see that stormnet is picking up something tomorrow for N/NE IL, rrfs is also picking up some activity there. watching it carefully
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Yep. I did notice the RRFS getting convection up there.

Ironically, the RRFS is a superb model for firing convection in areas where other models may not, it's just you need to heed caution of its storm mode depiction. It seems to like the idea of something firing up for a hour or two, maybe posing that isolated all svr hazards threat and just dying out.
 
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