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Discussion of April 27, 2011 Outbreak

Just discovered this thread. 4/27/2011 was basically the last high-end event that I didn’t fully track in real-time. I was in my first year of undergrad at UW-Milwaukee. I vaguely remember being aware that it was a high-risk day, but I didn’t have RadarScope or another app like it at the time where I tracked the event in real-time.

I think I got back to my dorm around the time that the Tuscaloosa tornado was entering Birmingham and watched that on the weather channel. I also remembering pulling up the NWS site and being shocked at the number of tornado warnings and discrete cells that were happening in real-time.

Something I’ve thought about a lot over the years is I would like to know what this event would look like in this era of rapid-refresh and dual-polarization radar. While we got good looks at a lot of the violent tornadoes that day on radar, we were only getting them every couple of minutes and we were just before the time where CC would come into use.

I’d also be curious to see how James Spann would approach covering a day like this if it were to happen again. I know he’s spoken at length about how he felt that he could have done a better job communicating with the public that day given how many people lost their lives. I thought he did as good of a job as anyone I’ve ever seen. If I ever switch careers and did outbreak coverage like that, I would definitely follow his example.

Ironic, I was also was going to school in Milwaukee at the time, although at the MATC downtown campus. I posted somewhere in here a while back about what I remember about that day. I too was aware there was a high risk out for parts of the South with some pretty volatile conditions expected, but never expected something rivaling or by some metrics exceeding the Super Outbreak of '74.

I wasn't able to track most of it in real time because I was on campus most of the day very busy with end-of-semester projects. I got back to my apartment, opened up my laptop, fired up GR Level 3 and navigated to KBMX, and saw the kind of textbook-perfect high-end supercell/tornado reflectivity and velocity signature I'd previously seen only in articles about 5/3/99, and the debris ball was on course to go through Birmingham. I downloaded the recent scans and looped it back, saw that it had already gone through Tuscaloosa and knew that something historic and catastrophic was underway.
 
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Using a simulated WarnGen platform we can gauge what a TOR-E would have looked like had one been issued for Smithville:
WFUS52 KMEG 11935

TORMEG

MSC095-272015-

/O.NEW.KMEG.TO.W.0001.110427T1935Z-110427T2015Z/


BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED

TORNADO WARNING

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN

335 PM CDT WED APR 27 2011


...TORNADO EMERGENCY FOR AMORY AND SMITHVILLE...


THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MEMPHIS HAS ISSUED A


* TORNADO WARNING FOR...

CENTRAL MONROE COUNTY IN NORTHEASTERN MISSISSIPPI...


* UNTIL 415 PM CDT


* AT 335 PM CDT...A CONFIRMED LARGE AND EXTREMELY DANGEROUS TORNADO WAS

OBSERVED NEAR ABERDEEN, OR 29 MILES SOUTH OF TUPELO, MOVING

NORTHEAST AT 60 MPH.


TORNADO EMERGENCY FOR AMORY AND SMITHVILLE. THIS IS A

PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION. TAKE COVER NOW!


HAZARD...DEADLY TORNADO.


SOURCE...EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT CONFIRMED TORNADO.


IMPACT...YOU ARE IN A LIFE-THREATENING SITUATION. FLYING DEBRIS

MAY BE DEADLY TO THOSE CAUGHT WITHOUT SHELTER. MOBILE

HOMES WILL BE DESTROYED. CONSIDERABLE DAMAGE TO HOMES,

BUSINESSES, AND VEHICLES IS LIKELY AND COMPLETE

DESTRUCTION IS POSSIBLE.


* THE TORNADO WILL BE NEAR...

AMORY AROUND 339 PM CDT.

SMITHVILLE AROUND 343 PM CDT.

OTHER LOCATIONS IMPACTED BY THIS TORNADIC THUNDERSTORM INCLUDE

ABERDEEN.


THIS INCLUDES THE FOLLOWING HIGHWAYS...

HIGHWAY 45 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 41 AND 58.

HIGHWAY 278 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 84 AND 103.


PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...


TO REPEAT, A LARGE, EXTREMELY DANGEROUS AND POTENTIALLY DEADLY

TORNADO IS ON THE GROUND. TO PROTECT YOUR LIFE, TAKE COVER NOW! MOVE

TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF A STURDY BUILDING. AVOID

WINDOWS. IF IN A MOBILE HOME, A VEHICLE OR OUTDOORS, MOVE TO THE

CLOSEST SUBSTANTIAL SHELTER AND PROTECT YOURSELF FROM FLYING DEBRIS.


A LARGE AND EXTREMELY DANGEROUS TORNADO IS ON THE GROUND. TAKE

IMMEDIATE TORNADO PRECAUTIONS. THIS IS AN EMERGENCY SITUATION.


IF ON OR NEAR TOMBIGBEE RIVER, GET AWAY FROM THE WATER AND MOVE TO

SAFE SHELTER IMMEDIATELY. IF YOU CAN HEAR THUNDER, YOU ARE CLOSE

ENOUGH TO BE STRUCK BY LIGHTNING. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN PRODUCE

LARGE CAPSIZING WAVES, EVEN ON SMALL BODIES OF WATER. MOVE INTO DOCK

AND SEEK SAFE SHELTER NOW! DO NOT BE CAUGHT ON THE WATER IN A

THUNDERSTORM.


&&


LAT...LON 3371 8860 3379 8872 3403 8851 3392 8825

3371 8860

TIME...MOT...LOC 1935Z 215DEG 52KT 3387 8852


TORNADO...OBSERVED

TORNADO DAMAGE THREAT...CATASTROPHIC

MAX HAIL SIZE...2.00 IN


$$


WC/MIC
1779119118713.png
 
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Using a simulated WarnGen platform we can gauge what a TOR-E would have looked like had one been issued for Smithville:

View attachment 52901
And also Ringgold, because I'm bored:
WFUS52 KFFC 10020
TORFFC
GAC047-280100-
/O.NEW.KFFC.TO.W.0001.110428T0020Z-110428T0100Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
820 PM EDT WED APR 27 2011

...TORNADO EMERGENCY FOR RINGGOLD ...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN PEACHTREE CITY HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
NORTHERN CATOOSA COUNTY IN NORTHWESTERN GEORGIA...

* UNTIL 900 PM EDT

* AT 820 PM EDT...A CONFIRMED LARGE AND DESTRUCTIVE TORNADO WAS
OBSERVED NEAR RINGGOLD, OR 13 MILES NORTHWEST OF DALTON, MOVING
NORTHEAST AT 60 MPH.

TORNADO EMERGENCY FOR RINGGOLD . THIS IS A
PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION. TAKE COVER NOW!

HAZARD...DEADLY TORNADO.

SOURCE...PUBLIC CONFIRMED TORNADO.

IMPACT...YOU ARE IN A LIFE-THREATENING SITUATION. FLYING DEBRIS
MAY BE DEADLY TO THOSE CAUGHT WITHOUT SHELTER. MOBILE
HOMES WILL BE DESTROYED. CONSIDERABLE DAMAGE TO HOMES,
BUSINESSES, AND VEHICLES IS LIKELY AND COMPLETE
DESTRUCTION IS POSSIBLE.

...THIS DANGEROUS STORM HAS A HISTORY OF PRODUCING DAMAGE IN NORTHEASTERN ALABAMA...

* THE TORNADO WILL BE NEAR...
RINGGOLD AND INDIAN SPRINGS AROUND 825 PM EDT.

THIS INCLUDES THE FOLLOWING HIGHWAYS...
INTERSTATE 24 NEAR MILE MARKER 184.
INTERSTATE 75 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 327 AND 336.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TO REPEAT, A LARGE, EXTREMELY DANGEROUS AND POTENTIALLY DEADLY
TORNADO IS ON THE GROUND. TO PROTECT YOUR LIFE, TAKE COVER NOW! MOVE
TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF A STURDY BUILDING. AVOID
WINDOWS. IF IN A MOBILE HOME, A VEHICLE OR OUTDOORS, MOVE TO THE
CLOSEST SUBSTANTIAL SHELTER AND PROTECT YOURSELF FROM FLYING DEBRIS.

TORNADOES ARE EXTREMELY DIFFICULT TO SEE AND CONFIRM AT NIGHT. DO
NOT WAIT TO SEE OR HEAR THE TORNADO. TAKE COVER NOW!

A LARGE AND EXTREMELY DANGEROUS TORNADO IS ON THE GROUND. TAKE
IMMEDIATE TORNADO PRECAUTIONS. THIS IS AN EMERGENCY SITUATION.

&&

LAT...LON 3485 8508 3487 8520 3499 8520 3499 8499
3485 8508
TIME...MOT...LOC 0020Z 210DEG 50KT 3488 8515

TORNADO...OBSERVED

TORNADO DAMAGE THREAT...CATASTROPHIC

MAX HAIL SIZE...1.50 IN

$$

WC/MIC
1779125665776.png
 
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