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Severe Weather 2025

SilentShadow87 said:
PS. I really like your R136 profile pic. Nice to see another space fan (I've always loved stargazing).
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Astronomy/physics is my main field, meteorology is just something I love on the side. I have an obsession with really extreme things in nature which is probably why I am so into severe weather, as well as stuff in space, lol. And I do agree, IMO R136 is the best because it's got the massive, most extreme stars.
 
Regarding the end of next week...

During the Day 6-8 period, forecast model spread increases
considerably. However, a general trend indicating a deepening trough
across the West ejecting across the Plains toward the central U.S.
Thursday and Friday is apparent. Depending on the evolution of this
feature and any developing surface cyclone and attendant Gulf return
flow across the south-central U.S., an increase in severe
thunderstorm potential could develop. Large spread and poor
run-to-run consistency among various guidance precludes
probabilities at this time.
 
Still not really seeing a coherent signal across the models for anything high-end. If one does show up, it keeps getting pushed further out in time. Of course, this time of year it's hard to pin down anything with the thermodynamics using the globals, but even the crucial trough geometry keeps changing every run. Best chance still looks to be in the 20th-21st timeframe.
 
The 20th/21st is definitely the timeframe to watch, with the possibility of all severe hazards but the magnitude really is still inconclusive. I would be watching Eastern TX on the 20th and MS/AL for the 21st as the system pretty much decays in terms of svr potential there.

On the other hand, it's a good thing that we don't have at least some instability to take advantage of THESE wind profiles in NE OH/W PA today.
 

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WeathermanLeprechaun said:
The 20th/21st is definitely the timeframe to watch, with the possibility of all severe hazards but the magnitude really is still inconclusive. I would be watching Eastern TX on the 20th and MS/AL for the 21st as the system pretty much decays in terms of svr potential there.

On the other hand, it's a good thing that we don't have at least some instability to take advantage of THESE wind profiles in NE OH/W PA today.
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Yeah, the 20/21st next week does seem like the period to watch. Considering Texas seems to be where all severe hazards are possible, I have this on high alert.
 
I sent this out this past Thursday to my weather text subscribers:
"Nov. 20th thru 26th: Will be monitoring for severe storm potential."
 
Latest GFS has a hell of a hodograph in south-central Texas and near the Texas/Mexico border on the 20th. Environment doesn't seem all too bad either.
2025111518_GFS_105_31.14,-99.41_severe_mu.png

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Ozonelayer said:
Latest GFS has a hell of a hodograph in south-central Texas and near the Texas/Mexico border on the 20th. Environment doesn't seem all too bad either.
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Pretty typical of South Central TX with those strong moist layer/inversion combos, i believe the environment wouldn't support anything firing with the scenario the GFS sets all day here. Regardless, that hodograph would support cyclical tornado behavior if this scenario were to be utilised by a supercell.
 
This cell continues to strengthens its rotation despite a fairly marginal thermodynamic environment. The low level kinematics are absolutely carrying this thing. I would consider getting into shelter if you live near Clintonville, PA!

Severe just issued as i type this, tornado possible tag!
 

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The 12z Canadian and Euro Operational show a lot more rainfall thru next 10 days than the GFS. I tend to agree with the Canadian and Euro showing a more active/robust pattern as it makes sense.
 

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