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Enhanced Fujita Ratings Debate Thread

slenker said:
I certainly agree, although I believe they did actually find an area of high end debarking that they referred to as a "sandpapering" effect on the trees, which I have yet to see imagery of, unless they're referring to the grove right next to the train derailment. I find it difficult to believe that they would bring up the tree damage if it wasn't of EF5 or high end EF4 caliber, so I really want to know what they're referring to. Especially since it's Marshall and one of the big things he looks for is that type of damage surrounding other EF5 level damage.

I hope other tornadoes in the past get re-analyzed from this point forwards as well. It's certainly in the conversation now considering the fact that this tornado was rated EF5 based on something Tuscaloosa did, arguably even more impressively than this one (I could be wrong on this, don't remember the exact details, but it was a similar feat regardless).
Click to expand...

If I had to guess, this is the area they're referring to. The "sandpaper effect" is likely a reference to the absence of any structural debris that would help chip away at the bark. It was purely wind, rain, and dirt that shredded them. I've posted several extreme examples of this in the past few weeks/months.



1759776003925.png
 
Grand Poo Bah said:
If I had to guess, this is the area they're referring to. The "sandpaper effect" is likely a reference to the absence of any structural debris that would help chip away at the bark. It was purely wind, rain, and dirt that shredded them. I've posted several extreme examples of this in the past few weeks/months.

-pics
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I don't think I've seen these videos/images until now. The twitter video is really something, that's definitely extreme tree damage for sure. The snapping is also an indicator of extreme intensity. What a violent monster this was, perhaps the scale being so stringent nowadays led to a preconceived bias on my part that it couldn't have been EF5 regardless of stuff like this.
 
Ozonelayer said:
Really glad the took into account contextual damage instead of strictly rataing it off of construstion based damage. But this is insane! Honestly I thought of all tornadoes this year It'd be Tylertown. But Enderlin sure as hell delivered.



Welcome back, EF-5 :)
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If you don’t mind me asking, what damage from Tylertown struck you as having EF5 potential??
 
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Grand Poo Bah said:
Interesting reference to this study. Idk if anyone noticed, but the authors of the study are also credited in the final rating.



View attachment 46923
View attachment 46924

Based on this info, I wouldn't at all be surprised if previous tornadoes have their ratings corrected. It appears the study was a bit of a breakthrough for tornado forensic science.
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Connell & Kopp both have PhDs in engineering. Really awesome job laying the groundwork for this.
 
Grand Poo Bah said:
It certainly marks a drastic shift in mindset from Tim Marshall and crew. Especially now that we've heard from Tim, and he even posted his own EF5 calculations. It's impossible to deny outside pressure played a role in his changed attitude. Having NOAA and the National Severe Storms Laboratory (Anthony Lyza) breathing down your neck will do that I guess.

It's especially refreshing to see it was a contextual indicator of all things that got the rating. This is a major positive step towards "fixing" a very broken system. Contextual indicators never should have been prohibited in the first place. It's worth noting Tim was involved with the Mayfield rating, and that tornado tipped fully loaded grain cars as well. Did he support an EF5 rating then? It doesn't appear so based on his post about it.

View attachment 46921

Enderlin didn't have any exceptionally unique debarking either. All the other top EF5 candidates had similar or worse debarking. There was absolutely nothing that puts this tornado above other EF5s (or EF5 candidates). It was strictly the mindset that changed. I enthusiastically welcome it, and it's worth celebrating, but it doesn't do anything to repair the 12 years of incorrect data and bad science that still needs corrected.
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whats this NSSL/NOAA stuff you're referencing?
 
N0mz said:
whats this NSSL/NOAA stuff you're referencing?
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Both of these studies were written by Anthony Lyza and his association is NOAA/OAR/National Severe Storms Laboratory. I believe they were also both publicized in NOAA bulletins.

Comparison of Tornado Damage Characteristics to Low-Altitude WSR-88D Radar Observations and Implications for Tornado Intensity Estimation

Where Have the EF5s Gone? A Closer Look at the “Drought” of the Most Violent Tornadoes in the United States
 
Here's some interesting Figures from the study.

These are the wind speed probabilities for a Jeep Grand Cherokee (SUV) that was thrown 30-50 meters and a Chevrolet Silverado Z71 (truck) that was thrown 80-100 meters. A bombshell fact is they found a 0% probability of winds less than 200 mph (90 m/s) being capable of throwing a truck that distance. The SUV was 0% at 190 mph. This blows the doors wide open for reanalysis of dozens of tornado that achieved these feats and were given impossibly low wind speeds.

1759780737536.png

Here's the analysis of some haybales that were thrown. They found a 0% probability that sub 200 mph winds could throw them 50-100 meters.

1759781362812.png
1759781493218.png

Here is the results of all the specific items they modeled compared to their tornado's EF ratings.

1759781618734.png

I now understand why Tim Marshall was on board with the EF5 rating for Enderlin. This study was an absolute kill shot for the EF scale. I can't believe how much it has flown under the radar. These results imply that a large compact object being lofted more than 50 m horizontally is an indicator of an EF5 tornado. It also created an algorithm for calculating objects at all size, weights, and distances thrown.

It's also more evidence in support of the original Fujita scale.
 
slenker said:
I certainly agree, although I believe they did actually find an area of high end debarking that they referred to as a "sandpapering" effect on the trees, which I have yet to see imagery of, unless they're referring to the grove right next to the train derailment. I find it difficult to believe that they would bring up the tree damage if it wasn't of EF5 or high end EF4 caliber, so I really want to know what they're referring to. Especially since it's Marshall and one of the big things he looks for is that type of damage surrounding other EF5 level damage.

I hope other tornadoes in the past get re-analyzed from this point forwards as well. It's certainly in the conversation now considering the fact that this tornado was rated EF5 based on something Tuscaloosa did, arguably even more impressively than this one (I could be wrong on this, don't remember the exact details, but it was a similar feat regardless).
Click to expand...
Tuscaloosa absolutely should get a reanalysis after this. It not only threw a coal hopper car 120 meters near Pleasant Grove, it also dismantled that railway bridge and threw a trestle up the hill near Holt.
 
Central Ohio Wx said:
My list of strongest tornadoes this year, then:
  • Enderlin (obviously)
  • Diaz (honestly overrated, contextuals don't support a rating higher than 170-180)
  • London
  • Tylertown (if any other tornado deserved 190, it'd be this one, not Marion)
  • Bakersfield
Click to expand...
I'd swap Diaz and London. The tree damage from London was extremely intense and it was my strongest EF5 candidate of the year until an hour and a half ago when I found out about the Enderlin upgrade.
 
uwo.ca

CSSL/NTP assists NWS with rating historic EF5 tornado in US

CSSL/NTP assists NWS with rating historic EF5 tornado at Enderlin, North Dakota in June of 2025
uwo.ca uwo.ca

1759786795173.png

what are all the tornadoes since 2007 that threw train cars that were full more then 50 meters?

because these are all the tornadoes that should be upgraded to EF5.

this also counts any other heavy compact objects.
 
joshoctober16 said:
uwo.ca

CSSL/NTP assists NWS with rating historic EF5 tornado in US

CSSL/NTP assists NWS with rating historic EF5 tornado at Enderlin, North Dakota in June of 2025
uwo.ca uwo.ca

View attachment 46931

what are all the tornadoes since 2007 that threw train cars that were full more then 50 meters?

because these are all the tornadoes that should be upgraded to EF5.

this also counts any other heavy compact objects.
Click to expand...
I’ve got to think Chapman 2015 would be a candidate for this although I think the top DI for that tornado was train tracks being ripped out of the ground, not for a heavy object being lofted?
 
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