Central Ohio Wx
Member
Mayfield is definitely the most controversial rating lol
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Significant Tornado Events
- Thread starter locomusic01
- Start date
AJS
Member
It is to an extent, but the rating is honestly correct. The amount of bad construction along the path was overwhelming. However, if we had the context from Bremen combined with the construction quality from Cambridge Shores/Gilbertsville, the drought would have been over that day.
SouthFLwx
Member
I think they keep it at moderate because most of the models weren't showing widespread open warm sector discrete supercell activity. They definitely were showing some cells, but not on the level that you would want to see for a high risk to be issued.
SouthFLwx
Member
Reminds me alot of Bakersfield. Damage was clearly high-end EF3 to low-end EF4, but they slapped it with a low-end EF3 rating.
AJS
Member
That actually makes complete sense. Thanks for explaining that! We definitely had quite a few more cells than what those models were probably showing.
I believe the trough being mostly positively tilted, at least in the beginning of its evolution, also played a role in maintaining a MDT as well. It was a fine call, but hindsight obviously shows us that a high risk would have verified.
IIRC, at the beginning of Ryan Hall’s stream on the event, he actually discusses how he believed that the day may have actually warranted a higher risk designation, and also how he would’ve drawn the highest risk over an area that was much closer to how the event verified IMO. The MDT was probably a bit too far to the northwest, but it still pretty accurately portrayed the day’s outcome.
CheeselandSkies
Member
I believe it was @andyhb who observed that some of the CAM (mainly HRRR) output on 12/10/21 was trending toward high risk material, but it was already relatively close to the event start time and it was a new development without much time to look for consistency/agreement with other models.
I question not going with a PDS tornado watch that day moreso than keeping a moderate vs. high risk.
I question not going with a PDS tornado watch that day moreso than keeping a moderate vs. high risk.
AJS
Member
If I recall correctly, the %s of tornadoes occurring in the watch we’re definitely PDS level.
Lake Martin EF4
Member
I am of the opinion that this and Bowling Green met EF4 criteria both contextually and structurally, and should have been rated as such. Louisville really dropped the ball on those ones. I'm also of the opinion that the CMU Slab Faker House in Bremen constitutes EF5 damage, though I could see the understand the argument for EF4. And Monette's tree damage was near-Bassfield level, and I'd argue that the damage exhibited to trees in those tornadoes should be the standard for EF5 tree damage if that is ever incorporated to the EF scale.
IMO, 4 underrated tornadoes, 2-3 of which could've and should've been rated a category higher.
AJS
Member
Do you think it’s possible the Tri State EF4 actually peaked in Arkansas around that area?? I’ve gotten conflicting reports of where it actually could’ve reached its peak.
Union
Member
I'm definitely a believer that Saloma is an EF4 strength tornado but to be entirely fair, the buildings it swept away were pretty trash, 145 may be a bit low but for an official rating I don't think EF4 fits very good either
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Union
Member
Do you mind showing images of the construction you're talking about in Cambridge Shores? I've seen and searched for a lot of images/videos of the large homes on the small Cambridge Shores peninsula and none of them look really exceptional, not standout EF5 at least, one home piqued my interest in it's possibly "UB" construction but it doesn't seem like anything too great
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AJS
Member
I do. I’ll send them shortly.
Union
Member
Bowling Green was such an EF4, apart from the seemingly correctly built Duplex that was entirely wiped away on Old Tram Road (rated 125mph for "large machinery" hitting the building, which is seen nowhere in any images), there was another, copy paste Duplex down the road fully collapsed, that was COMPLETELY UNRATED LOL (images of the unrated duplex will be below this post since I want to share images of the swept one first)
The EF2 duplex on Old Tram Road DID have a pretty harsh failure point in the shape of a garage right in the subvort direction, it makes sense why it was so badly damaged, however, 125mph is still ludicrous in my opinion, and the official reason given is very dubious.
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AJS
Member
What’s your opinion on the Tri State EF4?
Union
Member
Unrated duplex down the road, garage out of subvort direction, fully collapsed, EXP would be EF4, but it just wasn't surveyed
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Union
Member
I think it's rated fine but it's definitely pretty damn strong, not Mayfield level but the cyclodials and tree damage is definitely upper echelon.
Tanner
Member
AJS
Member
@Union here are the images of the EF5 candidate homes in the
Gilbertsville/Cambridge Shores area. These homes have been swept away and have sustained either total removal or partial removal of their sub flooring. Now, I do not agree with EF5 for this area though as contextual damage fell short of what was needed for an EF5 in this area. However, 170 mph was too low for Cambridge Shores.
Union
Member
I do agree that 170 is low for Cambridge Shores, but the images/houses that you sent don't go much further than that, the standard for an EF5 rating is insanely high and even though those lakeside homes were large and very expensive, they don't seem to have been of the "highest" quality, I think it's higher than 170, but EF5 is so strict and unless some more experienced people can speak of the quality of the homes, it just doesn't seem to match the EF5 need
Also I'd say the contextual damage in Cambridge Shores is actually kinda underrated, almost all the trees in the main core were torn down, very low to the ground in areas, debarked and probably thrown in some cases but it'd be hard to differentiate, there's not many cases of higher end vehicle damage (if any), but it has to be kept in mind that a lot of the vehicles from those homes were 100% tossed into Kentucky Lake to never be seen again. I don't know if I'd say it's slam dunk EF5 contextuals (such as Bremen), but I don't see many people talk about it.