Tropical Storm Tropical Storm Isaac

Taylor Campbell

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#1
Yes, they keep coming. Models have been indicating a lot of action. Gradual development expected with this one through the week, and possibly named by the end of it.
 
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#3
GFS wants to just sputter this along barely keeping it alive and then blow it up right by the US coast Harvey-style. This one is really far south though so it may be able to sneak in without recurving if it holds together. Not sure what the Euro does though - it just magically generates a massive cutoff low over the N Atlantic out of nowhere and it sucks it into that. Not sure how realistic that is.
 

WesL

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#4
1. A broad and elongated area of low pressure is centered several
hundred miles west-southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands. The
associated shower and thunderstorm activity has changed little in
organization since yesterday, and there are no indications yet that
the system has a well-defined center of circulation. However,
environmental conditions are conducive for development, and a
tropical depression is expected to form within the next few days
while the system moves slowly westward or west-northwestward across
the tropical Atlantic Ocean.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.
 

WesL

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#5
Tropical Depression 9 is expected to become a Tropical Storm by Sunday morning. Looks like a westerly track.

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092018
500 PM AST Fri Sep 07 2018

Corrected bin number from 2 TO 4

...TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE FORMS OVER THE EASTERN ATLANTIC...
...NO IMMEDIATE THREAT TO LAND...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...13.6N 34.9W
ABOUT 1755 MI...2820 KM E OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...STATIONARY
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES



1536354154427.png
 

Fred Gossage

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#6
This one gives me an uneasy feeling. IF it can get into the western half of the Caribbean, the large scale CONUS pattern past 7 days has some Ivan-like similarities... including troughing that develops a little west of the Mississippi River that slowly pushes eastward. We all know what that can often mean for storms in the northwestern Caribbean...
 
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#7
Since this will be Issac, it's too early to say if this will be on of the infamous I named storms that gets retired. If it does, what other men's I names are there out there? There's Ivar as in Ivar's Fish and Chips in Seattle.
 

WesL

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#8
500 PM AST Sat Sep 08 2018

...TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE BECOMES TROPICAL STORM ISAAC...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.5N 36.6W
ABOUT 1640 MI...2640 KM E OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 275 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES
 
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#9
I dont know if Isaac will be much of a threat. He's not looking too hot this morning on satellite and NHC has him weakening in the Caribbean. He would have to pull off a Harvey level of intensification in the Gulf to be a significant threat, and his sister Helene (who looks much more intimidating on satellite) looks to stay out to sea.
 

Mike S

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#13
Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 75 mph (120 km/h)
with higher gusts. Additional strengthening is expected over the
next day or two. Weakening is forecast to begin by the middle of
the week as Isaac approaches the Lesser Antilles.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 10 miles (20 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles
(75 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 993 mb (29.33 inches).
 

WesL

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#14
1100 AM AST Mon Sep 10 2018

...ISAAC SHOWING LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH AT THIS TIME...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.7N 43.9W
ABOUT 1150 MI...1855 KM E OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 275 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...993 MB...29.33 INCHES
 

WesL

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#15
1100 PM AST Mon Sep 10 2018

...ISAAC A LITTLE WEAKER...
...STILL EXPECTED TO BE AT OR NEAR HURRICANE STRENGTH WHEN IT
APPROACHES THE LEEWARD ISLANDS LATER THIS WEEK...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.5N 46.9W
ABOUT 960 MI...1550 KM E OF THE LESSER ANTILLES
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...997 MB...29.44 INCHES
 

WesL

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#16
500 AM AST Tue Sep 11 2018

...ISAAC REMAINS A STRONG TROPICAL STORM OVER THE CENTRAL TROPICAL
ATLANTIC...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.6N 48.1W
ABOUT 880 MI...1420 KM E OF THE LESSER ANTILLES
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...997 MB...29.44 INCHES


1536673622494.png
 
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#18
Isaac still has a chance to hit the US as a storm or hurricane.
Ehh I'm doubtful. Every major model has it just kind of sputtering and dying out in the Caribbean and its remnants float into Mexico and Central America. I don't think this is a threat to the US at all, and even if it was the threats would just be some heavy rain and marginally gusty winds.
 
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#20
It's gonna have to limp along, but we've seen many cases of this happening to only reach a more favorable environment in the NW Caribbean. Let me just say, the synoptic pattern favors if anything can remain intact and restrengthen, there is a window for it to move into the Gulf and potentially the Gulf Coast. But, there are many moving parts including the eventually path of Florence, interaction with a TUTT, and land masses.
 

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