Archive Former Hurricane Katia

South AL Wx

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Montgomery, AL
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#1
Both the GFS and ECMWF have been showing some potential for tropical development in the western Gulf of Mexico late this weekend or early next week. It was mentioned in the 2 pm TWO from NHC (20% chance of development in 5 days):

An area of low pressure could form over the southwestern Gulf of
Mexico by the weekend. Development, if any, of this system is
expected to be slow to occur as the low moves slowly northward.
If this system does develop, it could bring additional rainfall to
portions of the Texas and Louisiana coasts. However, any rainfall
forecast is uncertain at this time range and it is too soon to
determine any specific impacts. Interests in these areas should
monitor the progress of this system for the next few days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

 

JayF

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#2
That is surprising considering Harvey just roughed up the atmosphere in that area. Something to keep our eye on.
 

Brent

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#3
A trough of low pressure located over the southwestern Gulf of
Mexico is producing disorganized shower activity and a few
squalls. Environmental conditions are marginally conducive for
development, and this system could become a tropical depression
during the next couple of days while it meanders over the
southwestern Gulf of Mexico. Regardless of development, heavy rains
associated with this disturbance are likely over portions of eastern
Mexico during the remainder of the week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...60 percent.
 

WesL

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#4
000
WTNT33 KNHC 052035
TCPAT3

BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Thirteen Advisory Number 1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132017
400 PM CDT Tue Sep 05 2017

...DEPRESSION FORMS IN THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO...
...EXPECTED TO MOVE LITTLE OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS...


SUMMARY OF 400 PM CDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...22.4N 96.7W
ABOUT 80 MI...125 KM E OF TAMPICO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...E OR 90 DEGREES AT 2 MPH...4 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB...29.77 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.

Interests in the Mexican state of Veracruz should monitor the
progress of the depression.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 400 PM CDT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Thirteen
was located near latitude 22.4 North, longitude 96.7 West. The
depression is moving toward the east near 2 mph (4 km/h), and the
system should drift eastward and southward during the next couple
of days. On the forecast track, the center of the depression is
expected to remain offshore of Mexico through Thursday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts.
Some strengthening is forecast during the next 48 hours.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1008 mb...29.77 inches.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1000 PM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Blake
 

Mike S

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#5
At 400 AM CDT (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Katia was
located near latitude 22.1 North, longitude 96.3 West. Katia is
moving toward the east-southeast near 2 mph (4 km/h), and
the system should gradually turn southeastward during the next 24
hours and continue moving in this general direction through
Thursday. A turn toward the southwest is forecast on Friday.
On the forecast track, the center of Katia is expected to
remain offshore of Mexico through Friday morning.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 40 mph (65 km/h) with
higher gusts. Some strengthening is forecast during the next 48
hours.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb (29.71 inches).
 

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