Archive Former Hurricane Katia

Discussion in 'Tropical Weather' started by South AL Wx, Aug 30, 2017.

  1. South AL Wx

    South AL Wx Member
    Meteorologist

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    Both the GFS and ECMWF have been showing some potential for tropical development in the western Gulf of Mexico late this weekend or early next week. It was mentioned in the 2 pm TWO from NHC (20% chance of development in 5 days):

    An area of low pressure could form over the southwestern Gulf of
    Mexico by the weekend. Development, if any, of this system is
    expected to be slow to occur as the low moves slowly northward.
    If this system does develop, it could bring additional rainfall to
    portions of the Texas and Louisiana coasts. However, any rainfall
    forecast is uncertain at this time range and it is too soon to
    determine any specific impacts. Interests in these areas should
    monitor the progress of this system for the next few days.
    * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
    * Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

    [​IMG]
     
  2. JayF

    JayF Technical Administrator
    Staff Member Administrator Technical Admin

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    That is surprising considering Harvey just roughed up the atmosphere in that area. Something to keep our eye on.
     
  3. Brent

    Brent Moderator
    Staff Member Moderator

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    Location:
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    A trough of low pressure located over the southwestern Gulf of
    Mexico is producing disorganized shower activity and a few
    squalls. Environmental conditions are marginally conducive for
    development, and this system could become a tropical depression
    during the next couple of days while it meanders over the
    southwestern Gulf of Mexico. Regardless of development, heavy rains
    associated with this disturbance are likely over portions of eastern
    Mexico during the remainder of the week.
    * Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent.
    * Formation chance through 5 days...medium...60 percent.
     
  4. WesL

    WesL Administrator
    Staff Member Administrator PerryW Project Supporter

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    000
    WTNT33 KNHC 052035
    TCPAT3

    BULLETIN
    Tropical Depression Thirteen Advisory Number 1
    NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132017
    400 PM CDT Tue Sep 05 2017

    ...DEPRESSION FORMS IN THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO...
    ...EXPECTED TO MOVE LITTLE OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS...


    SUMMARY OF 400 PM CDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
    ----------------------------------------------
    LOCATION...22.4N 96.7W
    ABOUT 80 MI...125 KM E OF TAMPICO MEXICO
    MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
    PRESENT MOVEMENT...E OR 90 DEGREES AT 2 MPH...4 KM/H
    MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB...29.77 INCHES


    WATCHES AND WARNINGS
    --------------------
    There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.

    Interests in the Mexican state of Veracruz should monitor the
    progress of the depression.


    DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
    ------------------------------
    At 400 PM CDT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Thirteen
    was located near latitude 22.4 North, longitude 96.7 West. The
    depression is moving toward the east near 2 mph (4 km/h), and the
    system should drift eastward and southward during the next couple
    of days. On the forecast track, the center of the depression is
    expected to remain offshore of Mexico through Thursday.

    Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts.
    Some strengthening is forecast during the next 48 hours.

    The estimated minimum central pressure is 1008 mb...29.77 inches.


    HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
    ----------------------
    None


    NEXT ADVISORY
    -------------
    Next complete advisory at 1000 PM CDT.

    $$
    Forecaster Blake
     
  5. Mike S

    Mike S Administrator
    Staff Member Administrator Moderator PerryW Project Supporter

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    At 400 AM CDT (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Katia was
    located near latitude 22.1 North, longitude 96.3 West. Katia is
    moving toward the east-southeast near 2 mph (4 km/h), and
    the system should gradually turn southeastward during the next 24
    hours and continue moving in this general direction through
    Thursday. A turn toward the southwest is forecast on Friday.
    On the forecast track, the center of Katia is expected to
    remain offshore of Mexico through Friday morning.

    Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 40 mph (65 km/h) with
    higher gusts. Some strengthening is forecast during the next 48
    hours.

    Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km)
    from the center.

    The estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb (29.71 inches).
     
  6. akt1985

    akt1985 Member

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    Katia is the name that replaced Katrina.
     
  7. TuckerTerry

    TuckerTerry Member

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    Also now a hurricane.
     

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