Severe Weather Threat - June 17th-18th, 2023

[TheSuckZone]

 

[JBishopwx]

Nadocast...

 

[Taylor Campbell]

Uh oh this isn’t going to be good.

 

[JBishopwx]

5% Tornado risk now up for Mississippi and West Alabama

 

[Clancy]

5% Tornado risk now up for Mississippi and West Alabama
View attachment 20696

Definitely a good place to start. Destabilization well underway in MS and AL.

 

[Clancy]

HRRR intent on late night threat for MS and AL, with some possible development out ahead of the main MCS. Hope people will be aware as they go to bed tonight.

 

[JPWX]

Sounding off the 16z HRRR valid at 02z Monday in Northwest Monroe County, MS

 

[JPWX]

North MS has only had 3 June's where there's been a 5% tornado probability outside of a tropical system: June 8th, 2021 (had a weak tornado in Lee County, MS), June 12th, 2009 (had tornado in DeSoto County, MS), and June 1st, 2008 (5% tornado probability was discontinued though in the 1630z Day 1 Outlook)

 

[JPWX]

GEFS calibrated 4-hour neighborhood tornado probability, 4-hour neighborhood NADOCAST, and 24-hour STP-calibrated neighborhood tornado probability.

 

[UncleJuJu98]

HRRR intent on late night threat for MS and AL, with some possible development out ahead of the main MCS. Hope people will be aware as they go to bed tonight.
View attachment 20698View attachment 20699

It's gunna get lit tonight!

 

[Clancy]

HRRR gradually trending more discrete over past several runs over MS late this evening.

 

[UncleJuJu98]

HRRR gradually trending more discrete over past several runs over MS late this evening.
View attachment 20704

Yeah noticed that, the atmosphere is recovering nicely. Should make the atmosphere a bit more explosive with a more pronounced cold pool aloft from the atmosphere getting worked over this morning.

 

[Clancy]

Public brief on Twitter from BMX.

 

[JPWX]

Expansion of 5% TOR probability and SIG hatch for large hail from Jackson to Starkville, MS.

 

[Taylor Campbell]

I'm keeping an eye on the cumulus field across LA into far southern MS. 3KM NAM and HRRR indicate thunderstorm development in this area around 5ish.

 

[JPWX]

I'm keeping an eye on the cumulus field across LA into far southern MS. 3KM NAM and HRRR indicate thunderstorm development in this area around 5ish.


View attachment 20709

I'm getting some sunshine here in Smithville. Current temp is 82 with a dewpoint of 72. Forecasted high is 87.

 

[UncleJuJu98]

Expansion of 5% TOR probability and SIG hatch for large hail from Jackson to Starkville, MS.

Pretty big 5% Tor risk.

 

[UncleJuJu98]

 

[Equus]

Let's just sit back and continue to realize that we are dealing with the potential of discrete rotating supercells with tornadoes and giant hail, after a whole week of damaging wind/hail and MCS events with a handful of tornadoes and flash flooding, in AL/MS, in mid June

 

[Taylor Campbell]

Nadocast added the hatch category. With the parameter set in place EF2+ strength tornadoes seem possible.