Severe WX March 30th- April 1st 2023 (South, Southeast, Ohio Valley, Upper Midwest)

[UncleJuJu98]

The 10z is incredibly nasty for extreme north Mississippi.

The instability has come down a decent bit from past runs

 

[Casuarina Head]

The 10z is incredibly nasty for extreme north Mississippi.

The instability has come down a decent bit from past runs

Do you have any idea as to why?

 

[Brice]

8th.

EDIT: just to clarify, I'm 15, I was just not in school from 2017-2023 and ended up going to middle school rather than high school so I'd adjust easier.

Ahhh, I turned 17 on the 16th of march. Been in love with weather since I was 8 from watching Storm Chasers, Twister, and Into The Storm, literally hundreds of times.

 

[ColdFront]

The 10z is incredibly nasty for extreme north Mississippi.

The instability has come down a decent bit from past runs

Across all models or just HRRR?

 

[Thanksgivingbrown]

Well this changed a lot

 

[TheSuckZone]

Over 18 million people in the hatched TOR risk area

 

[Casuarina Head]

Over 18 million people in the hatched TOR risk area

The discussion also mentions “long-track, strong to potentially violent tornadoes”

 

[NorthGaWeather]

Well this changed a lot

They read my mind! I’m glad to see the eastward extension of all risk categories across the Tennessee Valley. I felt like the fine people in Norman were undervaluing the risk to a degree.

 

[SmokeEater]

The discussion also mentions “long-track, strong to potentially violent tornadoes”

At least a few long-track, strong to potentially violent tornadoes are probable, particularly over portions of the Mid-Mississippi Valley to the Mid-South.

Not possible... Probable... This is probably the strongest worded outlook I've ever seen that isn't a high risk.

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[ColdFront]

are any of the models showing any capping/warm noses still in the southern threat area today?

 

[JPWX]

The 11z HRRR updraft helicity. Monroe County again.

 

[NorthGaWeather]

At least a few long-track, strong to potentially violent tornadoes are probable, particularly over portions of the Mid-Mississippi Valley to the Mid-South.

Not possible... Probable... This is probably the strongest worded outlook I've ever seen that isn't a high risk.

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This also sets up spatially for a high risk corridor. These type of days are why they issue high risks. They’ve made it clear in conversations and social media posts. We’ll see if the trigger is pulled at 1630z or a special update is released via MCD.

Again, confidence must be high that an area will receive convection (supercells), and that convection will have sufficient time within a parameter space that is supportive of tornadic supercells producing significant/violent tornadoes. This has that potential.

 

[jackiesgeorge]

I am in southern Tishomingo county in Mississippi looks like dead on target for me.

 

[UncleJuJu98]

Do you have any idea as to why?

No clue lol

 

[Wind Driven Coconut]

At least a few long-track, strong to potentially violent tornadoes are probable, particularly over portions of the Mid-Mississippi Valley to the Mid-South.

Not possible... Probable... This is probably the strongest worded outlook I've ever seen that isn't a high risk.

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Honestly this is the kind of wording usually reserved for high risk outlooks. Kind of surprised they didn’t at least mention the possibility of an upgrade later today.


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[ColdFront]

This was a pretty profound uptrend from night to morning.

 

[UncleJuJu98]

This was a pretty profound uptrend from night to morning.

I don't think it was necessarily a uptrend in potential, more so a higher confidence in the outcome trend lol

 

[Casuarina Head]

No clue lol

Is this on all the mesoscale models? Strong UAH does not look to be as widespread as one yesterday’s CAMs.

To put things bluntly, I would be more confident in this MDT Risk if CAMs were trending upward vs. downward as of now.

Do I expect some strong tornadoes? Yes. An intense tornado? Yes. Multiple intense tornadoes? Call me skeptical.

 

[172556]

Hopefully RRFS comes nowhere near verifying, solid line of sickle hodos and PDS soundings from southern Illinois through central Mississippi as far as I can tell.

Edit: Yeah, it's very much in the territory of an unknown - but concerning nonetheless with this setup.

 

[warneagle]

This also sets up spatially for a high risk corridor. These type of days are why they issue high risks. They’ve made it clear in conversations and social media posts. We’ll see if the trigger is pulled at 1630z or a special update is released via MCD.

Again, confidence must be high that an area will receive convection (supercells), and that convection will have sufficient time within a parameter space that is supportive of tornadic supercells producing significant/violent tornadoes. This has that potential.

Yeah, this was my thought, delineate the broad MDT area and then issue more localized high area once it's clearer where things are gonna be focused. Seems like a reasonable approach.