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Severe WX Severe Wx Outbreak March 1st- 3rd, 2023 - Southern States, MS/OH/TN Valley

KevinH said:
I would expect more than a slight risk for AL/GA with THOSE values, but what do I know?
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It's going to be a linear storm mode and the warm mid-level temps are going to prevent any kind of deep updraft development so there isn't much of a sigtor risk. This is why posting composite parameters with no other context is bad communication at best and clickbait at worst. All the STP is telling you is that threshold values of instability and shear are being met, you have to look at the broader context to determine whether those parameters are relevant to the forecast. You can have off-the-charts STP, but without supercells you're not going to get a substantial sigtor risk that would warrant higher probabilities. This is why people were criticizing them for the post.
 
FFC has a multimedia briefing for tomorrow's threat. Nice to see, given how wobbly this forecast is.
 
warneagle said:
It's going to be a linear storm mode and the warm mid-level temps are going to prevent any kind of deep updraft development so there isn't much of a sigtor risk. This is why posting composite parameters with no other context is bad communication at best and clickbait at worst. All the STP is telling you is that threshold values of instability and shear are being met, you have to look at the broader context to determine whether those parameters are relevant to the forecast. You can have off-the-charts STP, but without supercells you're not going to get a substantial sigtor risk that would warrant higher probabilities. This is why people were criticizing them for the post.
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Ok thanks…. I’m in W C GA so I’m watching everything lol
 
KevinH said:
Ok thanks…. I’m in W C GA so I’m watching everything lol
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Yeah my folks are about an hour and a half east of you so I'm keeping an eye on it as well. The big threat tomorrow is gonna be north of there but there's still gonna be a damaging wind and QLCS tornado threat in AL/GA (which is why they still have the 5% probs up).
 
warneagle said:
Man, the radar coverage in northeast Texas and southwest Oklahoma is buns. I have a feeling this is going to be an annoying problem all night.
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I heard that a radar will be installed atop the water tower in Durant, OK, later this month. That could help at least somewhat (depending on the radar's specs and whether or not the radar data will be publicly accessible).

EDIT: I just came across an article that should have more information:

www.kten.com

Durant radar to enhance Texoma storm warnings

The new Doppler weather radar is expected to start scanning the skies from the top of a water tower by September.
www.kten.com www.kten.com
 
Tennie said:
I heard that a radar will be installed atop the water tower in Durant, OK, later this month. That could help at least somewhat (depending on the radar's specs and whether or not the radar data will be publicly accessible).
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Yeah I mean just stick a radar there, or in like Paris, TX or something. That's a decent sized town I think, put one there. There's no way you should have a radar hole that bad in an area that's generally pretty active in terms of severe weather.
 
warneagle said:
Man, the radar coverage in northeast Texas and southwest Oklahoma is buns. I have a feeling this is going to be an annoying problem all night.
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I find it incredibly frustrating that we can't get enough radar put up to cover every area in this country adequately, considering where the federal government spends some of its money on. But that's a rant for another day.
 
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