Not to get off topic, but when that specific user’s wider theory is based on some sort of government and NOAA related “conspiracy” of them purposely upping EF scale ratings of tornados just to somehow prove climate change is making tornados worse it comes across different to me.
Yep, still not in that “spot” yet
Significant rainfall values is a byproduct. Flooding was always going to be an underlying risk factor today.
Yeah, you can see from the sounding that even though there's ample instability south of the front, the low-level shear is still pretty weak that far ahead of the main surface cyclone. There is a pocket of enhanced low-level shear along the boundary that these storms are gradually moving toward, though, so they definitely need to be watched.
Trying not to cause a stir here, but.. it's because there's a warm nose at 700mb that storms will not be able to pass to be able to use those values. So the STP is negligible unless actual forecasts and model show this warm layer being overcame. No reason to really show the STP at this point if storms can't get going. It's nice to see but the general public won't understand the correlation to high STP and tornado potential. A lot of people see the high STP and think there's a high tornado chance in my area.
Presenting a composite index like that without context isn't really helpful. The parameter space is there which is why the STP is high but the storm mode isn't going to be conducive to a threat of strong, long-tracked tornadoes like the composite indices might imply (as well as other factors that have been discussed here like the relatively warm temps in the mid-levels of the atmosphere that will prevent the storms from really being able to tap into those parameters). It's not uncommon to see wild parameter spaces like that in the south this time of year, but usually there are other factors (storm mode, thermodynamic issues, etc.) that hold them back (although it's not usually the mid-levels being too warm).
Thank you, trying not to cause anymore stir, cause I feel we are at a thin line right now with people getting upset, when we have severe threat ongoing.
Thank you. Now really isn’t the time or place to be discussing that.
That right there is what has me somewhat concerned… Mid-levels being too warm for this time of year is worrisome in my opinion.
Oh, yeah, idk, I was just answering their question about why posting the STP image out of context isn't productive. I'm not touching any of the other stuff that's not relevant to today or tomorrow.
