Severe WX Severe Wx Outbreak March 1st- 3rd, 2023 - Southern States, MS/OH/TN Valley

[tornado examiner]

Is the cap breaking? Brad Arnold is saying that it may have broken or is in the process of doing so…and he’s live in the field

 

[TH2002]

New Tornado Watch already up in correspondence with the most recent MD (less than a half hour ago). That was fast.

 

[JWard87]

Is the cap breaking? Brad Arnold is saying that it may have broken or is in the process of doing so…and he’s live in the field

Last look at the FWD sounding at 18Z, a cap still was in place, but the clearing and subsequent heating is eroding it as we speak.

 

[warneagle]

Is the cap breaking? Brad Arnold is saying that it may have broken or is in the process of doing so…and he’s live in the field

Mesoanalysis shows that the cap is eroding across north Texas but there's still pretty substantial CIN in place further north along the Red River (which isn't surprising since that was forecast to be in place there at this point).

 

[cincywx]

New Tornado Watch already up in correspondence with the most recent MD (less than a half hour ago). That was fast.

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 55
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
255 PM CST THU MAR 2 2023

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
EXTREME SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS
SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA
NORTH CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST TEXAS

* EFFECTIVE THIS THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 255 PM UNTIL
1000 PM CST.

* PRIMARY THREATS INCLUDE...
A FEW TORNADOES LIKELY WITH A COUPLE INTENSE TORNADOES POSSIBLE
SCATTERED DAMAGING WINDS AND ISOLATED SIGNIFICANT GUSTS TO 75
MPH LIKELY
SCATTERED LARGE HAIL AND ISOLATED VERY LARGE HAIL EVENTS TO 3
INCHES IN DIAMETER LIKELY

SUMMARY...SCATTERED SUPERCELLS WILL MOVE NORTHEASTWARD ALONG A
STALLED FRONT FROM NORTH TEXAS INTO SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA THROUGH LATE
EVENING, WHILE ADDITIONAL STORMS FORM IN THE WARM SECTOR TO THE
SOUTH, AND SPREAD INTO NORTH TEXAS FROM THE WEST. THE MOST
PERSISTENT/INTENSE SUPERCELLS WILL POSE THE THREAT FOR VERY LARGE
HAIL UP TO 3 INCHES IN DIAMETER AND A STRONG TORNADO OR TWO.
OTHERWISE, UPSCALE GROWTH OF THE STORMS WILL FAVOR AN EVENTUAL
TRANSITION TO THE THREAT FOR DAMAGING WINDS, SOME OF WHICH BE NEAR
OR ABOVE 75 MPH.

 

[ColdFront]

I see why the long range HRRR at 18z had that look for KY/TN tomorrow. 0-3 km SRH values of over a 1000 at different areas. Again, not saying anything verifies, but still. The threat may have shifted north from Georgia.

 

[tornado examiner]

If the cap breaks…and a lone cell manages to form in the extremely high parameter space…it may well go on a significant tornado journey…

 

[UncleJuJu98]

the

Weather nerds panicking the general public


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Gotta get that clickbait and shock factor. I feel like this is were weather is going in general with this huge YouTube channels like Ryan hall and some of the other guys.

But I digress we are in the middle of a severe weather event Lol.

A lot potential "revenue" in the shock factor

 

[Jpgood97]

Regarding my post, weather nerds are notorious for cherry picking the singular most intense model and sharing it.


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[TornadoFan]

Both cells north of Dallas are rotating.

 

[Tennie]

Both cells north of Dallas are rotating.

They've been struggling to produce for a while, though there have already been some noteworthy hail reports from them.

 

[JWard87]

If the cap breaks…and a lone cell manages to form in the extremely high parameter space…it may well go on a significant tornado journey…

Would be nice if we could get another sounding SSW of FWD to see what our 3CAPE values are. If they’ve shifted to >0, then we’re getting into the range of where these storms can tap into some low level instability.

 

[Austin Dawg]

Last look at the FWD sounding at 18Z, a cap still was in place, but the clearing and subsequent heating is eroding it as we speak.

The sun is trying to peek out here in Central Texas. It went from straight cloud cover to breaks in the clouds. 80 degrees and 70.1 dewpoint

 

[TornadoFan]

Strong rotation on the little cell near Liberty City, near Longview, TX.

 

[MichelleH]

Weather nerds panicking the general public


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Owner is a friend of mine and if you're not interested in weather, you're not going to see the post. No different from an unregistered Joe Blow reading posts here.

 

[TornadoFan]

 

[Jpgood97]

Also as weather fans, we have to be careful to not overhype each system. (Which has been evident on this forum). There’s been one account on TW for the last 6 months or so, and it catches the most heat for posting their opinions which is normally the most reserved/conservative and correct. Yes, eventually we will have stronger systems, maybe even tomorrow, but we can’t act like every system will produce a strong tornado. That’s why many people don’t take it seriously these days. Rant over


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[Brice]

Also as weather fans, we have to be careful to not overhype each system. (Which has been evident on this forum). There’s been one account on TW for the last 6 months or so, and it catches the most heat for posting their opinions which is normally the most reserved/conservative and correct. Yes, eventually we will have stronger systems, maybe even tomorrow, but we can’t act like every system will produce a strong tornado. That’s why many people don’t take it seriously these days. Rant over


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No better explanation for this

 

[UncleJuJu98]

Treading a thin line....
Let's get back to topic guys lol.

 

[UncleJuJu98]