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Severe WX Severe Wx Outbreak March 1st- 3rd, 2023 - Southern States, MS/OH/TN Valley

Can't post photos while on mobile for some reason but 18Z HRRR had a pretty nasty swath of favorable parameters over the AL/GA line region.
 
KevinH said:
NAM STP Valid 1pm ET Fri

UHMMMM

*PIC REMOVED FOR BREVITY*
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What I find interesting is that despite those ridiculous ingredients, neither than 3kNAM nor HRRRR (at the extreme end of its range admittedly) are showing much in the way of updraft helicity.
 
MattW said:
What I find interesting is that despite those ridiculous ingredients, neither than 3kNAM nor HRRRR (at the extreme end of its range admittedly) are showing much in the way of updraft helicity.
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Hrrr can be pretty wonky at the extreme end as you mention. And 3km nam is always relatively "dry" I guess you could say. I guess watching the trends at this point in time are best. But a environment favorable for some bad weather seems to be the case
 
It would seem that SBCAPE was waay under modeled IMO. This is almost explosive to a degree with an incoming shortwave .
Sorry, didn't know how to invert the color scheme.



sbcp_sf.gif
 
UncleJuJu98 said:
Hrrr can be pretty wonky at the extreme end as you mention. And 3km nam is always relatively "dry" I guess you could say. I guess watching the trends at this point in time are best. But a environment favorable for some bad weather seems to be the case
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Environment looks to be there, though some open questions as to what extent convection actually develops. Can't remember if it was at all synoptically similar but an event forecasted to hit GA pretty hard in 2017 flopped hard because storms just didn't get going as expected.
 
Clancy said:
Environment looks to be there, though some open questions as to what extent convection actually develops. Can't remember if it was at all synoptically similar but an event forecasted to hit GA pretty hard in 2017 flopped hard because storms just didn't get going as expected.
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I guess we can always lean on the MMFS until the HRRR gets in close range. The WRF is reliable at this range
 
Oh no...I just thought of something. Please correct me if I'm wrong, but can the UH product of the models show low-topped tornadoes? Where their circulation may only go a few thousand feet up in the air?
 
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