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Severe WX Severe Wx Outbreak March 1st- 3rd, 2023 - Southern States, MS/OH/TN Valley

There is a lot of early morning convection tomorrow on the NSSL and HRRR simulated reflectivity south of Dallas to Waco, TX with the look to move off to the northeast towards the moderate risk area. I am curious of this cloud/precip to hurt instability further north and perhaps shift the greater risk south and possibly act as a trigger for discrete storms. New runs will be of interest.
 
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UncleJuJu98 said:
I'm guessing models are starting to lean towards less occlusion for the Georgia threat now? Haven't checked it in A while
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Iirc it wasn't strongly modelled in the first place but is a possibility when compared to historical precedent for similar systems.
 
Tornado watch should be coming in a few hours for Arkansas, not seeing a SPC mesoscale on it but I'd imagine it's coming soon, by looking at HRRR and when convection initiates.
 
atrainguy said:
As of now, does today's threat look like it's going to be completely nocturnal? Also, is it mostly just hail or is a tornado outbreak still a sizable concern?
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A mix of nocturnal and day I think. And I wouldn't characterize this event as a tornado outbreak. More so a severe outbreak with some tornadoes that could be strong.
 
Taylor Campbell said:
There is a lot of early morning convection tomorrow on the NSSL and HRRR simulated reflectivity south of Dallas to Waco, TX with the look to move off to the northeast towards the moderate risk area. I am curious of this cloud/precip to hurt instability further north and perhaps shift the greater risk south and possibly act as a trigger for discrete storms. New runs will be of interest.
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I'm more worried about us getting hailers out of this system in Central Texas more than having tornadoes. We are entering that time of year that we are susceptible to those types of storms
 
So it looks like south Arkansas will reach 3000sb cape around initiation of storms, pretty high instability...
Also SRH Helicity has slowly been bumping up. Wether it's convective contamination on the environment who knows but environment for some severe storms is pretty good
 
I’m interested tomorrow as to how much of a tornado threat the QLCS will pose. It seems unless we get a strong signal pretty soon for discrete convection the main tornado threat will come from the QLCS and possibly embedded supercells. Looking at HRRR forecast soundings ahead of the line there seems to be a pretty decent overlap of 1000-1500j/kg CAPE and 300-400 Effective SRH. Any embedded supercells or elements of the line that could turn more semi-discrete in that environment could possibly produce a couple of strong tornadoes. Apart from that I don’t currently think there will be widespread strong tornadoes. Hopefully the same by tomorrow, but a prefrontal confluence band could change that all.
 
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