Severe WX Severe Weather Threat Jan 12th, 2023

[UncleJuJu98]

Wow the 18z is crazy.

 

[UncleJuJu98]

That's a gnarly look for sure. I'll do a deep dive tonight but a enchaned for sure will be needed even for just damaging winds possibly.

 

[UncleJuJu98]

Time to start looking at the possibility of some longer tracked supercells for tommorow

 

[Clancy]

18Z run definitely shows more instability. Will likely be an unpleasant wind event (time to tie down the lawn chairs :b). Tornado risk will come down to small-scale things surrounding the QLCS.

 

[UncleJuJu98]

18Z run definitely shows more instability. Will likely be an unpleasant wind event (time to tie down the lawn chairs :b). Tornado risk will come down to small-scale things surrounding the QLCS.

Luckily we are limited to spin ups this go around but I hate them because they're so hard to warn for lol and some can be strong.

Bmx mentions this event could overachieve a good fit that there watching trends, I'd imagine there talking about damaging winds though

 

[ashtonlemleywx]

Is it me or does it seem like God is angry at Brent and Calera, Alabama?

Is it the new Sodom and Gomorrah?

 

[MattW]

I think metro Atlanta should definitely keep an ear out for spinups, they'll be fast and brief. That EF-0 that hit near Lithonia in the last event is an example of what I'm afraid of.

 

[UncleJuJu98]

Im weary of the possibility of something backing low level winds, let's hope it doesnt

 

[UncleJuJu98]

20z hrrr has winds directly from the south if not slightly backed. Gotta say this thing could boom into a bigger event. I'll keep eyeing new model runs but parameters keep going up.

 

[UncleJuJu98]

21z hrrr has a stp of 6 in west Alabama at 9am with the semi squall on the state border of Mississippi

 

[Clancy]

SREF STI for tomorrow valid at 21Z, shows a corridor of 15s and 30s. While, as stated previously by others, not worried about strong tornadoes, QLCS tornadoes may prove to be a problem, even with relatively unfavorable wind fields. Regardless, the downburst threat is a problem of its own. Sounding attached for posterity from 18Z NAM 3km at 20Z tomorrow just southeast of Peachtree City.

 

[UncleJuJu98]

The newest hrrr run backs the winds a little bit at the surface when the surface boundary / semi line gets close just check the hodo graph near Birmingham, plenty of instability and shear.

 

[UncleJuJu98]

Good grief man, not sure what to think about tommorow lol

 

[UncleJuJu98]

I have a feeling tornado wise tommorow will overproduce, anybody else have any opinions?

I've been looking at February 3-4 2022 time frame as a analog somewhat similar event

 

[Taylor Campbell]

New Day 1 is a slight risk. A thunderstorm has produced 0.75 inch hail in eastern Oklahoma.

 

[UncleJuJu98]

New Day 1 is a slight risk.

5% tornado risk along the triple point as well. Hrrr has been showing a nasty storm along it for a good chunk of runs today

 

[ashtonlemleywx]

Possible long track supercell has formed near the triple point in East Oklahoma

 

[ashtonlemleywx]

 

[Taylor Campbell]

Ouch.

 

[JPWX]

I would keep a watch on that storm to prompt a tornado warning