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Severe Weather Threat - November 29th-30th, 2022

NWS Jackson mentioning potential for a long duration event.
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Wow. 06z NAM continues to look even more favourable and if verified, would likely be a major outbreak. Fortunately, ECM and UKMET are together with a much less favourable look (LLJ displaced far East with less rich moisture) and GFS has similar wind fields to NAM but instability is more of an issue as its displaced further W. The trend is definitely concerning though.
 
UK_EF4 said:
Wow. 06z NAM continues to look even more favourable and if verified, would likely be a major outbreak. Fortunately, ECM and UKMET are together with a much less favourable look (LLJ displaced far East with less rich moisture) and GFS has similar wind fields to NAM but instability is more of an issue as its displaced further W. The trend is definitely concerning though.
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Very concerning look still even on euro … sounds like a big chase day incoming ….
 
Not sure anyone has mentioned it already, but Little Rock Radar will be down next week....received_694927811934564.jpeg
 
I would hope they seriously reconsider taking it offline until after Tuesday seeing as their CWA is, while not perhaps the absolute bullseye (although that really is yet TBD with the shifting model solutions), definitely at significant risk during this event.

It's one thing if they'd already taken the radar apart and this threat cropped up, but to start the maintenance when they know a significant severe weather threat is coming up the very next day seems...irresponsible at best.

In fact, while as of even yesterday evening I thought this was gonna be an E TX/W LA event, SPC is thinking much further east than that, almost overlapping with last year's 12/10 event except perhaps a little further south. Of course the storm of the day then got its start in the LZK CWA.
 
CheeselandSkies said:
I would hope they seriously reconsider taking it offline until after Tuesday seeing as their CWA is, while not perhaps the absolute bullseye (although that really is yet TBD with the shifting model solutions), definitely at significant risk during this event.

In fact, while as of even yesterday evening I thought this was gonna be an E TX/W LA event, SPC is thinking much further east than that, almost overlapping with last year's 12/10 event except perhaps a little further south. Of course the storm of the day then got its start in the LZK CWA.
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bulls eye now appears se arkansas, nw miss , sw tenn region
 
CheeselandSkies said:
I would hope they seriously reconsider taking it offline until after Tuesday seeing as their CWA is, while not perhaps the absolute bullseye (although that really is yet TBD with the shifting model solutions), definitely at significant risk during this event.

It's one thing if they'd already taken the radar apart and this threat cropped up, but to start the maintenance when they know a significant severe weather threat is coming up the very next day seems...irresponsible at best.

In fact, while as of even yesterday evening I thought this was gonna be an E TX/W LA event, SPC is thinking much further east than that, almost overlapping with last year's 12/10 event except perhaps a little further south. Of course the storm of the day then got its start in the LZK CWA.
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The decision will have to come from the national office from what I've read
 
Already strong wording in the Day 3 Discussion with "tornado outbreak will be possible across parts of the lower to mid MS valley if the current forecast parameters hold"
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