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Severe WX April 11-14th, 2022 Severe Weather Threat

CC has gotten noisy approaching Haughton but that is a QLCS velocity signature you ALWAYS take very seriously
 
andyhb said:
Well the 00z HRRR is certainly concerning across the Mid South tomorrow. Depiction is mixed mode (but with a number of supercells), but the parameter space across much of the region supports significant tornadoes with very impressive mid level lapse rates, plenty of moisture, and strong low level shear. We'll have to see how tonights convection from Texas behaves since it seems there's a pretty mature MCS ongoing right now with a cold pool, but the timing of the mid-level shortwave trough rounding the base of the parent upper low is pretty ideal.
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Important trend from 00z HRRR to 02z HRRR has been more and earlier convection
00z
1649820831923.png
02z
1649820852303.png
Though, 02z only runs through 20z, crapvection could be a limiting factor if this pans out and should be noted if the trend continues in either direction. Imo think the moderate for tornadoes should be expanded a little to the north and east to include more of North Central MS, East AR, and West TN.
 
Big time outflow surge like that usually precedes the more significant of the QLCS tornadoes; bad news coming up looks like
 
OHWX97 said:
Haughton, LA is likely about to take a direct hit from a damaging tornado.
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Equus said:
CC has gotten noisy approaching Haughton but that is a QLCS velocity signature you ALWAYS take very seriously
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There was a damaging tornado on the ground with a TDS on this storm when it was south of Shreveport.
 
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