• Welcome to TalkWeather!
    We see you lurking around TalkWeather! Take the extra step and join us today to view attachments, see less ads and maybe even join the discussion.
    CLICK TO JOIN TALKWEATHER

Severe WX December 31, 2021 - January 1, 2022 Severe Threat

From Spann:

EARLY AFTERNOON UPDATE: NWS Birmingham launched a special balloon at midday (normally we only get a sounding at 6am and 6pm daily), and the data still shows a layer of warmer air aloft.

Seems as if the weak "cap" aloft is being eroded and gradually breached in spots. Showers continue to develop over the northern half of the state... the showers are shallow due to the residual capping aloft, they are producing no lightning as of 1:15p CT. Will be watching to see if showers can break through and modify/erode the drier/warmer environment and grow taller. Hasn't happened yet.

Still no change in thinking concerning timing, threats, etc. Just stay weather aware and pay attention to warnings if they are needed. A tornado watch remains in effect for parts of the Tennessee Valley of far North Alabama.
Click to expand...
 
Bama Ravens said:
From Spann:
Click to expand...
Yeah if anything they've actually trimmed Enhanced a bit more. Jeff Co isn't in Enhanced at all now based on BMX forecast. But 80 degrees here on NYD? That's incredible in its own right! Monthly. Bham Jan record is 81 on 10 Jan 49.
 

Attachments

  • Screenshot_20220101-135251.png
    Screenshot_20220101-135251.png
    746.2 KB · Views: 0
Last edited:
It looks like directional shear might be a limiting factor today. Currently, the surface wind vectors in the general vicinity of the storms seem to be relatively parallel to the storm directions.
 
Newest SPC update just trims the risk away from the westward areas that are behind the convection.
1641067665996.png

They've also issued an MD regarding an increasing chance for discrete supercells in NE MS/NW AL and S TN.

Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 9

Severe weather, tornado, thunderstorm, fire weather, storm report, tornado watch, severe thunderstorm watch, mesoscale discussion, convective outlook products from the Storm Prediction Center.
www.spc.noaa.gov
SUMMARY...Development of a few discrete supercells capable of
producing tornadoes and damaging wind gusts possible from northern
MS into far northern AL and southern middle TN.

DISCUSSION...Recent observations suggest the outflow boundary moving
through western TN has become less defined near the TN/MS border,
suggesting that much of warm sector across northern MS and adjacent
northern AL/southern middle TN will likely stay free from the
influence of this boundary. Additionally, the amount and intensity
of the warm sector cells has continued to increase, with several
cells producing lightning over the past hour. This development is
occurring within an environment characterized by warm and moist
low-levels and strong vertical shear. Recent GWX VAD also sampled
300 m2/s2 of 0-1 km storm-relative helicity. Expectation is for the
storms currently in northern MS to organize/intensify further as
they continue northeastward into a more sheared downstream
environment.
Click to expand...
 
Clancy said:
Newest SPC update just trims the risk away from the westward areas that are behind the convection.
View attachment 11407

They've also issued an MD regarding an increasing chance for discrete supercells in NE MS/NW AL and S TN.

Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 9

Severe weather, tornado, thunderstorm, fire weather, storm report, tornado watch, severe thunderstorm watch, mesoscale discussion, convective outlook products from the Storm Prediction Center.
www.spc.noaa.gov
Click to expand...

To me, S. TN looks to be the spot over the next few hours.
 
NE MS cells look really healthy and could truly get going soon.
 
Belmont/Tishomingo is trying very hard...
 
You must log in or register to reply here.
Back
Top