• Welcome to TalkWeather!
    We see you lurking around TalkWeather! Take the extra step and join us today to view attachments, see less ads and maybe even join the discussion.
    CLICK TO JOIN TALKWEATHER

Severe WX December 10 & 11, 2021 Severe Threat

Groupthink is by far worse, that is how bad decisions repeat. Ultimately once the outrage grows eventually NOAA and the dept of Commerce will be forced to fire the ineptitude. Speaking out with respectful dissent can actually be job security, when things are this screwed up.
Not how it works. This isn't a movie where the guy gets the girl.

A lot of what is going on is caused by people who are largely immune to to the outrage you mention. They'll just sacrifice others who had nothing to do with the decision and process.
 
Yeah that’s what I’m saying. Outside influences are what are causing the bad surveys, not the WFOs themselves.

100%. Could not agree more.

I made a post yesterday about this not being the fault of WFOs except for, perhaps, at the leadership level at some of them.

I hate to be a pessimist but there's not enough of us to make a difference. Any outrage we produce will simply lead to some unfortunate scapegoats paying the price instead of those responsible.

Do people not remember the Sharpie incident?

It's the same reason why people shouldn't berate random retail workers or customer service for a bad or nonsensical policy. THEY KNOW. Believe me. THEY KNOW. But there's not a damn thing they can do about. They have student loans, mortgages, and bills just like all the rest of us. They also need their health insurance.

The institutional failure taking place with the current ratings fiasco is simply another sign of the decline of the American Empire. Fat, lazy, and stupid *IS* the way we've chosen as a country to live our lives.
 
To put it bluntly, people working in the meteorological field want to keep their jobs, and they don't want to rock the boat and cause issues that could threaten their employment and ability to move up. Because of this, it falls on people like Grazulis, and groups like the TornadoTalk research team to be able to be that dissenting voice, and potentially enact change. It's not going to occur internally, I'll tell you that much.
If that’s true, sad indeed. That said within any organization (public or private) those that do what is right (respectfully + professionally ) will be much more acclaimed and when reform occurs (and the metaphorical winds seem to change every ten years), those that show courage of conviction for what is right, will be very same that gain promotion, the lemmings in turn will become a dime a dozen. These are professionals with years of training that appear to know what should be stated and what is absolutely wrong, acting as yesman/woman is not appealing when their is a new sheriff in charge. Story of every business reorg.

The question becomes how egregious are these rating inconsistencies/downratings and will anyone beyond chasers/bloggers/chatters care? I personally think some of those impacted may, but moreover govt officials that are asking for FEMA and declarations even aid organizations will too. The general public outside of those impacted likely won’t. At a minimum the issues seem likely to be exposed as very few Departments of the US Federal Government (even the CIA director must report to senate oversite committee ) can be run by dictators with an agenda without explanation of reasoning / transparency. For the moment the West Kentucky event is still National news. Perhaps we will begin to hear murmurs of confusion.
 
Dissention doesn't do any good and can harm your career aspirations.

I find it ironic that half the country just spent years viciously attacking whistleblowers and those who stood up and said "I dissent" yet somehow there's a level of surprise that random NWS employees won't step up and put their heads in the guillotine over a tornado rating. Gee, I wonder why...

Institutional Decline ain't just a catchy name for a band.
 
I find it ironic that half the country just spent years viciously attacking whistleblowers and those who stood up and said "I dissent" yet somehow there's a level of surprise that random NWS employees won't step up and put their heads in the guillotine over a tornado rating. Gee, I wonder why...

Institutional Decline ain't just a catchy name for a band.
Loved the guy gets the girl reference. I do understand, not the levels of bureaucracy within and above the wfo, rather your point. I still cannot comprehend that there is zero oversight regarding tornado ratings (or concern for those decisions). If indeed as some inferred NOAA is steering the downratings to the wfo’s, their office doesn’t operate in a vacuum. It comes down to: are downratings of tornadoes (doesn’t seem to much question that is occurring) a trivial matter that only people on this site that study tornadoes care about? Or are there other public and govt groups that would be offended? Basically if .001% of the population cares, it is unlikely to change, other than organically. It becomes largely trivial. If it is more outrageous to more of the population questions get asked by those that will get answers. For example if the Andy Beshear talked about his confusion of the ratings at a press conference tomorrow- clarity and likely change would follow.
 
What a disaster.

"Those who cannot remember the past are doomed to repeat it."

2021 has become the new 2006 for tornado damage surveys.

2006: Amazing, another high end F3.
2021: Amazing, another high end EF3. (or) Amazing, another high end EF4.
 
If that’s true, sad indeed. That said within any organization (public or private) those that do what is right (respectfully + professionally ) will be much more acclaimed and when reform occurs (and the metaphorical winds seem to change every ten years), those that show courage of conviction for what is right, will be very same that gain promotion, the lemmings in turn will become a dime a dozen. These are professionals with years of training that appear to know what should be stated and what is absolutely wrong, acting as yesman/woman is not appealing when their is a new sheriff in charge. Story of every business reorg.

The question becomes how egregious are these rating inconsistencies/downratings and will anyone beyond chasers/bloggers/chatters care? I personally think some of those impacted may, but moreover govt officials that are asking for FEMA and declarations even aid organizations will too. The general public outside of those impacted likely won’t. At a minimum the issues seem likely to be exposed as very few Departments of the US Federal Government (even the CIA director must report to senate oversite committee ) can be run by dictators with an agenda without explanation of reasoning / transparency. For the moment the West Kentucky event is still National news. Perhaps we will begin to hear murmurs of confusion.

I don't mean to be rude in any way but this is an utter fantasy.

Being rewarded for doing the right thing in a governmental organization? Yeah, they'll be rewarded alright. With a one-way ticket to count reindeers in Nome, Alaska.

Congress conducting oversight? My soul just went to heaven like a weasel playing a harp in Who Framed Roger Rabbit.
 
I remember I created this graphic a while back to poke fun at how ridiculously stringent John Robinson and LZK were when surveying the Vilonia tornado. I guess the survey teams for these tornadoes found this graphic and didn't realize it was supposed to be satire.
9385_dead502b8d77de500963c45413516a96.png
 
Loved the guy gets the girl reference. I do understand, not the levels of bureaucracy within and above the wfo, rather your point. I still cannot comprehend that there is zero oversight regarding tornado ratings (or concern for those decisions). If indeed as some inferred NOAA is steering the downratings to the wfo’s, their office doesn’t operate in a vacuum. It comes down to: are downratings of tornadoes (doesn’t seem to much question that is occurring) a trivial matter that only people on this site that study tornadoes care about? Or are there other public and govt groups that would be offended? Basically if .001% of the population cares, it is unlikely to change, other than organically. It becomes largely trivial. If it is more outrageous to more of the population questions get asked by those that will get answers. For example if the Andy Beshear talked about his confusion of the ratings at a press conference tomorrow- clarity and likely change would follow.

I mean this with total respect, as I think it's great some people are not yet as jaundiced and skeptical as I am, but I simply don't believe any of that would matter. It's not how the system works anymore (if it ever even did).

Not trying to be a Debbie Downer or unfair here. On more than one occasion I have had physical meetings in DC at the Capitol with Congressional staff from different offices trying to lobby them to do the right thing. They'll pretend to care. They're very good at that. But they don't actually care. At all. If it's not an issue that gains them votes, donations, or favors then they're simply not interested. Are you powerful/wealthy/influential? Can you deliver a block of voters or land them a cushy gig when they retire from office or lose their re-election? Then you may have a different experience. Especially if you're offering board seats.

With all due respect to Governor Beshear, he doesn't rate. And that's if he was even interested in the first place. If it doesn't impact votes, donations, or favors then he's not going to have an inclination to care either. He cannot be elected to a higher office in Kentucky. His political future is very limited. He's a non-entity nationally and that's what matters. He has no political capital to burn.

I'm happy to be labeled as negative, curmudgeonly, jaded, or what have you. Because all those things are true about me.

I respect that you still have faith. I think it's awesome. I wish I could muster the strength to believe similarly. When you've been battered repeatedly and you've reached total hopelessness it is quite difficult to to ever see the light at the end of tunnel.
 
Last edited:
I honestly cannot even stomach reading through this thread anymore. I feel like at least a dozen of us KNEW exactly what was going to happen yet we stubbornly clung to hope that this time would be different. Burned again. It's just pathetic.
 
I don't mean to be rude in any way but this is an utter fantasy.

Being rewarded for doing the right thing in a governmental organization? Yeah, they'll be rewarded alright. With a one-way ticket to count reindeers in Nome, Alaska.

Congress conducting oversight? My soul just went to heaven like a weasel playing a harp in Who Framed Roger Rabbit.
Not rude, definitely cynical. Keep in mind i did “use dissent with respect and professionalism”. Their are many great federal employees that do find a way to navigate government bureaucracy and keep their souls. I don’t think we are asking for an intern to send secret wfo rating files to Julian Assange.

What seems to concern everyone beyond specific instances is that the overall agenda, process, a potential review isn’t publicly transparent. Inconsistencies aside at least if the process could be understood it could be either applied, appreciated, if not debated by those that care to have a reference point for historical tornado comparison.

Also thank you for the laugh when i thought of John Laroquette (Stripes) with your Nome reference
 
Tim Marshall finally got back to me and he said he doesn't think there's much more surveying to do but that the EF4 rating is still preliminary. Still not expecting an upgrade to EF5 though.
 
Tim Marshall finally got back to me and he said he doesn't think there's much more surveying to do but that the EF4 rating is still preliminary. Still not expecting an upgrade to EF5 though.
Good news, 1) that he got back to you 2) it isn’t final yet. Never know. Did he confirm his limit of surveying was just Dawson Springs and Mayfield. Wasn’t sure if i heard correctly that he personally went to Princeton (Uk), Cayce, Bremen.
 
Good news, 1) that he got back to you 2) it isn’t final yet. Never know. Did he confirm his limit of surveying was just Dawson Springs and Mayfield. Wasn’t sure if i heard correctly that he personally went to Princeton (Uk), Cayce, Bremen.
He told me that he was part of the survey team that surveyed Mayfield and Dawson Springs and that other survey teams were responsible for other locations.
 
From WLKY, updated 11 p.m., Eastern (their hotlinks):

Impact on Kentuckians

Death toll

76; 12 are children. Their ages range from 2 months to 98 years old.

One of these deaths is someone who died while removing debris in Warren County. Terry Martin Jayne operated a floral shop for 45 years. He is survived by his wife, a son and daughter, three grandchildren and four siblings.

Here's what we know about the victims

People unaccounted for

16 (down from a high of 122)

Homes, buildings destroyed

More than 1,000. In Dawson Springs, 75% of homes were destroyed.

People without power

3,280 (down from 24,000). FEMA says 2,000 of those cannot be restored for weeks. Most of them are in Mayfield and some are in Dawson Springs, the two hardest hit areas.

Counties under emergency disaster declaration

Breckenridge, Bullitt, Caldwell, Fulton, Graves, Grayson, Hickman, Hopkins, Lyon, Meade, Muhlenberg, Ohio, Shelby, Spencer and Warren
 
If Marshall only supported 190 and has already left the scene I find any higher of a rating exceptionally unlikely to be honest. I can't see them going against the speed he suggested even if damage is a bit worse elsewhere.

Anyway, this has been abused infinitely and I'm quite annoyed by it
Screenshot_20211217_005821.jpg
 
If Marshall only supported 190 and has already left the scene I find any higher of a rating exceptionally unlikely to be honest. I can't see them going against the speed he suggested even if damage is a bit worse elsewhere.

Anyway, this has been abused infinitely and I'm quite annoyed by it
View attachment 11122
There were several EF5 candidate homes in Cambridge Shores that were seemingly completely ignored.
 
Back
Top