brianc33710
Member
So far they've preliminary rated everything EF3s. Its hard to imagine that these won't rate higher but I thought some of Cen AL's 25 March would rate EF4. 2 were given EF3s.
-
Welcome to TalkWeather! We see you lurking around TalkWeather! Take the extra step and join us today to view attachments, see less ads and maybe even join the discussion. CLICK TO JOIN TALKWEATHER
Severe WX December 10 & 11, 2021 Severe Threat
- Thread starter Richardjacks
- Start date
Juliett Bravo Kilo
Member
- Messages
- 2,445
- Location
- Missouri
I hope at least one tornado gets rated EF5 from this; if not, well I'm losing my final shred of faith in the system (or at least the ability of the people in charge to administer it properly).
SilentShadow87
Member
- Messages
- 732
- Location
- St. Catharines, Ontario
Knowing MEG I doubt that will be rated higher than low-end EF3.
I heard a rumor on Friday that one of the tornadoes had its winds recorded at 280+ mph, has there been any follow up on that?
Casuarina Head
Member
- Messages
- 622
- Location
- Northern Europe
Monette AR–Samburg TN, Mayfield–Dawson Springs KY, Saloma/Hobson KY, Dresden TN, and Bowling Green KY should all be rated EF4+ (Monette/Mayfield EF5).
Casuarina Head
Member
- Messages
- 622
- Location
- Northern Europe
Equus
Member
I assume the 280 and 283 refer to the velocities, which reportedly broke the all time record for highest g2g velocity measured by Doppler radar; amazingly the 283 was measured like an hour before it hit 280, suggesting unfathomable intensity over a very large area
Liberty4dayz
Member
This is definitely the scariest tornado video I've seen. The first time I watched it, when the beast first came into a view...well...it was almost like a jump scare during a horror movie. Then...I honestly can't find words to describe it. Outside of just amazing...
Sent from my SM-G996U using Tapatalk
This damage is some of the most impressive I've seen. This area is almost completely devoid of structures and trees. This is solely wind damage.
warneagle
Member
As someone noted at the time, those G2G velocities were comparable to those measured during Greensburg and Tuscaloosa.
From what I’m seeing, it looks like the potential “Quad-State Tornado” path was at least 2 tornadoes according to surveys. It looks like the first one went from Monette, AR to Samburg, TN. After this tornado lifted, it appears the cell moved into Kentucky, where it dropped the second tornado, which struck Mayfield, Princeton, Dawson Springs, and many other small towns.
I was watching CC out of KPAH at this time, this certainly appeared to be the case from that perspective as the return became much less intense for a frame or two. It returned almost immediately afterwards.
warneagle
Member
Yeah, that's in line with radar observations at the time. It looked like the original mesocyclone occluded in northwest Tennessee and a new one formed and produced almost immediately as the cell was entering Kentucky. It happened over the course of a couple of radar scans though, so I could see how people would be hesitant to say definitively one way or the other.
I don’t like how I’m seeing NWS Louisville is keep the Saloma, KY and Bowling Green, KY tornadoes at EF3 with no explanation as to why. Both leveled and/or swept away multiple homes. There would have to be some truly serious contextual and construction issues for such ratings to be appropriate, and I’m not sure that’s the case. I’m also not comfortable with the EF3 rating in Dresden, TN at this point either.
I think the initial Monette, AR to Samburg, TN tornado could also use an upgrade to EF4 just based on tree damage alone. That debarking near Buckeye, AR is just unreal. If they could do it in Dayton and Bassfield, they can definitely do it with this one.
Casuarina Head
Member
- Messages
- 622
- Location
- Northern Europe
Maybe the WFO simply neglected to examine the DIs up close? Did people on social media send the corresponding images to LMK and/or MEG?
I mean I’d assume analysis is still ongoing, and there’s no reason to believe up close examination didn’t take place. I just hope they aren’t playing ridiculously conservative and we end up with multiple EF3s that should have been rated EF4. I definitely have some concerns about NWS Louisville’s surveying tendencies.
Anyone know what the last EF4 was in their CWA? I think it might have been Henryville.
Flyboy70
Member
- Messages
- 28
- Location
- Florence, AL
Is there an advantage to anyone for these storms to be rated conservatively? Is someone pushing for more strict building codes so these get rated lower on the scale in order to persuade building code review to ensure more well built buildings?
thundersnow
Member
- Messages
- 369
- Location
- Nolensville, TN
There are few things scarier and more menacing, outside of horror movies, than a nighttime tornado backlit by flashes of lightning.
locomusic01
Member
- Messages
- 1,588
- Location
- Pennsylvania
I sort of get it. Enforcing a strict set of standards is the only way to ensure ratings are grounded in science and done consistently across CWAs.. at least in theory. When you start making allowances for non-DI contextual damage and making assumptions about what kind of intensity a tornado was rather than following the scale as it's constructed, you also start introducing uncontrolled variables and injecting uncertainty into the historical record.
Of course, that conveniently ignores the fact that the historical record is a dumpster fire to begin with, and there are still major inconsistencies between CWAs anyway. More importantly, we know for a fact that we're already underrating tornadoes in general, and opting for a conservative approach just exacerbates the problem.
To be fair, it's a really difficult problem and I'm not sure there's a right answer. The entire underpinnings of the F/EF-scale (inferring intensity from damage) are fundamentally flawed, so there are going to be issues no matter what. We simply don't have many reliable ways to verify this kind of high-end violence. Still, I think opting for a more liberal interpretation (within reason of course) would produce results that are probably more representative of reality.