Severe WX December 10 & 11, 2021 Severe Threat

[Weatherphreak]

Storms popping SW of Little Rock could be the start of the party.

 

[warneagle]

Special sounding from Little Rock is, uh, concerning. Still capped for the moment but when that cap erodes...whew.

 

[Austin Dawg]

74 degrees, humidity 90.7, and dewpoint 71.1 here in Smithville, MS.

Thanks for checking in from my hometown.

 

[TornadoFan]

Special sounding from Little Rock is, uh, concerning. Still capped for the moment but when that cap erodes...whew.

Ok, is this what you'd call a loaded gun sounding? Obviously being the amateur that I am, I really don't have a clue what I'm reading here.

 

[Richardjacks]

I not sure high risk isn't warranted, placement and time still in question

Ok, is this what you'd call a loaded gun sounding? Obviously being the amateur that I am, I really don't have a clue what I'm reading here.

The low level shear isn't quite what you would want to see for violent tornadoes,

 

[cincywx]

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Tornado Watch Number 552
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
300 PM CST Fri Dec 10 2021

The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a

* Tornado Watch for portions of
Central and northeastern Arkansas
Southern Illinois
Southwestern Indiana
Western Kentucky
Southeastern Missouri
Northwestern Mississippi
Western Tennessee

* Effective this Friday afternoon and evening from 300 PM until
1100 PM CST.

* Primary threats include...
Several tornadoes and a couple intense tornadoes likely
Scattered damaging winds likely with isolated significant gusts
to 75 mph possible
Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 2
inches in diameter possible

SUMMARY...Scattered supercell development is expected this afternoon
through early tonight from central Arkansas northeastward toward the
confluence of the Mississippi and Ohio Rivers. Other storm
development is expected early tonight along a cold front moving into
Missouri and Arkansas. The storm environment will favor the
potential for a few strong tornadoes this evening through early
tonight, as well as damaging winds and large hail.

90/70 probabilities

 

[CheeselandSkies]

A little surprised they didn't go with PDS wording, since that watch covers the moderate/15% hatched.

 

[Shakespeare 2016]

A little surprised they didn't go with PDS wording, since that watch covers the moderate/15% hatched.

I was wondering the same thing.

 

[TornadoFan]

Don't PDS watches usually have 90/80 probs?

 

[Kory]

Low level shear still looks weak. That will begin to change over the next couple hours as the LLJ rapidly strengthens.

 

[bwalk]

The area of activity SW of Little Rock has become more pronounced over the past 30 minutes. Storms are a little more linear in nature (vs. discrete) but they could tighten up as they move more NE.

 

[Shakespeare 2016]

Don't PDS watches usually have 90/80 probs?

I have seen PDS tornado watches with 70/50 tornado probabilities.

 

[KevinH]

Don't PDS watches usually have 90/80 probs?

PDS watches have >= 80% probabilities for EF2+ TORs.

 

[Shakespeare 2016]

PDS watches have >= 80% probabilities for EF2+ TORs.

I have seen them lower than that before. Ex...80/60 or 70/50.

 

[KevinH]

I have seen them lower than that before. Ex...80/60 or 70/50.

That’s what I was told. Perhaps it just depends on the forecaster then??? ‍

 

[Shakespeare 2016]

That’s what I was told. Perhaps it just depends on the forecaster then??? ‍

It also may have to do with the wind and hail probabilities being not as high as well.

 

[SilentShadow87]

Honestly I'm a bit surprised they didn't pull the trigger on a PDS watch on this one. They've issued PDS watches for less threatening setups before.

 

[CheeselandSkies]

It also may have to do with the wind and hail probabilities being not as high as well.

I doubt it. When a PDS watch is issued for tornadoes, it's based strictly on the expected tornado threat.

 

[Shakespeare 2016]

I doubt it. When a PDS watch is issued for tornadoes, it's based strictly on the expected tornado threat.

i would think so too but I did wonder about the hail and wind probs.

 

[Clancy]

Looks like some stuff forming around Little Rock.