Severe WX December 10 & 11, 2021 Severe Threat

[TornadoFan]

Looks like some stuff forming around Little Rock.

Most of it looks linier.

 

[andyhb]

Most of it looks linier.

It looks like the incipient stages before supercells.

 

[TH2002]

Is the capping inversion and lack of adequate shear what has been keeping supercells from forming up to this point?

 

[southmdwatcher]

This is still several hours prior to what the models this morning were forecasting for significant severe weather initiation

 

[andyhb]

I suggest you all look at the radar from Little Rock.

 

[southmdwatcher]

Just east of the radar site near Little Rock AR

 

[Julian]

I see a lot of little popcorn on radar in west TN and northern MS. I think she blows in the next hour or so.

 

[TH2002]

Too bad we still have no power here and my netbook on battery power is just barely fast enough to run GetNEXRAD without crashing.

edit: Power is back on and apparently the reason it was out is because someone crashed into one of the nearby power poles.

 

[JBishopwx]

 

[Clancy]

New MD out concerning increase in storm coverage in E AR and surrounding areas.

 

[tennessee storm chaser]

It looks like the incipient stages before supercells.

It looks like the incipient stages before supercells.

Yeah those should start getting some separation as time goes by later

 

[Kory]

I see a lot of little popcorn on radar in west TN and northern MS. I think she blows in the next hour or so.

Still quite capped over that area. Mesoscale models indicated junky showers/convection across that region this evening that doesn’t amount to much.

 

[TornadoFan]

Shear in the Little Rock area is now exceeding 35 knots according to the latest MD.

 

[OHWX97]

Were any mesoscale models showing supercell development as far west as Texas? Might have to watch those storms NE of Dallas further down the road.

SPC issued a MD for that area. Watch possible.

 

[Taylor Campbell]

The 17z run of the HRRR model is the last run that depicted what is occurring right now correctly. The area northeast of Little Rock is of most interest as it has been indicated that the cluster will continue tracking northeast into maturity.

 

[tennessee storm chaser]

The lower level jet should start kicking in bout hour or so … that help to get better formation on super cells later

 

[Tennie]

Here's the 20z Convective Outlook:

Day 1 Convective Outlook AMEND 2
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0508 PM CST Fri Dec 10 2021

Valid 110100Z - 111200Z

...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING
INTO TONIGHT FROM NORTHEAST AR/SOUTHEAST MO INTO WESTERN TN/KY AND
SOUTHERN IL...

AMENDED TO INCREASE SEVERE PROBABILITIES IN NORTHEAST TEXAS AND
SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA

...SUMMARY...
A few strong tornadoes, damaging gusts, and large hail are all
expected beginning this evening across Arkansas and Missouri, with
the greatest tornado threat close to the confluence of the
Mississippi and Ohio Rivers. The damaging wind and tornado threat
will persist overnight while spreading eastward into the Tennessee
Valley and northeastward across the Ohio Valley overnight.

Northeast Texas: Isolated thunderstorms are developing a bit farther
west across northeast Texas than earlier anticipated. With ample
moisture/instability across this region ahead of the front will
increase severe probabilities across this region.

The previous forecast appears to be on track, and little change is
needed at 20Z.

At 19Z, a dryline was located near the I-35 corridor from north TX
into OK, with gradual warming and destabilization noted eastward
into AR. Upwards of 1500 J/kg MLCAPE is already in place there, with
further warming along with dewpoints holding in the upper 60s F.
While capping currently exists over most areas, the deepening moist
boundary layer is forecast become uncapped prior to 00Z over AR, and
this will support possible supercell development with tornado threat
evolving east-northeastward into western KY/TN through the evening.
Otherwise, expanding storm coverage is likely around 03Z along/ahead
of the cold front as large scale lift increases across the MS and OH
Valleys, with very strong shear favoring tornadoes, possibly strong.


For more information on the AR and southeast MO area, see mesoscale
discussion 1978.

..Darrow.. 12/10/2021

 

[TornadoFan]

First tornado warning of the day.

 

[CheeselandSkies]

Kind of unusual to see an update MD for a watch less than 10 minutes after the watch goes out...

Storm Prediction Center Tornado Watch 553

Severe weather, tornado, thunderstorm, fire weather, storm report, tornado watch, severe thunderstorm watch, mesoscale discussion, convective outlook products from the Storm Prediction Center.

www.spc.noaa.gov

Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 1984

Severe weather, tornado, thunderstorm, fire weather, storm report, tornado watch, severe thunderstorm watch, mesoscale discussion, convective outlook products from the Storm Prediction Center.

www.spc.noaa.gov

 

[CheeselandSkies]

Looks like that initial Arkansas cell may be starting to get its act together around Searcy/Bald Knob. Track will take it close to Jonesboro, especially the northwestern parts of the city.