COVID-19 detected in United States

[Summer Girl]

My PCR came back negative. I guess I have a bad sinus infection. We officially shut down electives yesterday and opened our PACU ICU this morning. I’ll be working 7p-7a starting tonight. Please pray for us and our patients. This time it feels much worse than when we hit our peak in January.

 

[Jacob]

Seeing some pretty good signals that this wave across the south is about to peak, and probably already has in some places. NE Florida was the first to surge in Florida, and they are likely on the downswing now. R(t) estimates across the area are below 1 and decreasing, cases are decreasing, and BaptistHealth (large hospital provider in the area) had their first day-to-day drop in hospitalizations today. Hopefully that isn't just an anomaly.

The rest of Florida shouldn't be far behind, nor should southern AL, southern MS, and Louisiana. CLI ED visits haven't revised up as much as I thought they would across the region, and are pointing towards a clear peak in the last few days. Hopefully this is confirmed over the next 5-6 days as new data comes in.

Edit: Another early and hard hit area has been, well all of Louisiana, but Baton Rouge in particular. COVID hospitalizations there might have peaked, they've seen two straight days of decreases, which hasn't happened in a couple weeks. Hopefully it's a legitimate turnaround and not just a bump in the data. Cases and R(t) from that area also suggest they might be past peak.

 

[Jacob]

Seeing some pretty good signals that this wave across the south is about to peak, and probably already has in some places. NE Florida was the first to surge in Florida, and they are likely on the downswing now. R(t) estimates across the area are below 1 and decreasing, cases are decreasing, and BaptistHealth (large hospital provider in the area) had their first day-to-day drop in hospitalizations today. Hopefully that isn't just an anomaly.

The rest of Florida shouldn't be far behind, nor should southern AL, southern MS, and Louisiana. CLI ED visits haven't revised up as much as I thought they would across the region, and are pointing towards a clear peak in the last few days. Hopefully this is confirmed over the next 5-6 days as new data comes in.

Edit: Another early and hard hit area has been, well all of Louisiana, but Baton Rouge in particular. COVID hospitalizations there might have peaked, they've seen two straight days of decreases, which hasn't happened in a couple weeks. Hopefully it's a legitimate turnaround and not just a bump in the data. Cases and R(t) from that area also suggest they might be past peak.

Second day in a row for hospitalizations to drop in the Jacksonville region, today was a pretty sizable drop. Feeling pretty confident this is the start of their downturn. Hoping southern AL isn't far behind, after a steady rise for the last few weeks the number of people hospitalized in Mobile County has been flat/slightly declined the last 3 days (don't have today's number yet).

 

[Evan]

Second day in a row for hospitalizations to drop in the Jacksonville region, today was a pretty sizable drop. Feeling pretty confident this is the start of their downturn. Hoping southern AL isn't far behind, after a steady rise for the last few weeks the number of people hospitalized in Mobile County has been flat/slightly declined the last 3 days (don't have today's number yet).

I don't think they've peaked yet. Look at that positivity rate:

 

[Jacob]

I don't think they've peaked yet. Look at that positivity rate:

State wide I'm not sure I would declare a peak yet, but everything is pointing to the entire state being past peak by next weekend. The Jacksonville area has now seen two weeks of declining cases, and hospitalizations appear to be following now. Duval County saw cases last week drop by over 20% from the previous week. R(t) estimates across the Jacksonville area are well below 1.0 and the R(t) across the rest of the state is falling rapidly. Latest estimate for the state as a whole is 0.99 and falling. ( covidestim.org ). Obviously that's a model nowcast so it could be off.

 

[Lori]

I hope and pray the peak is here, however, most school in Bama started last week and since the variant affects children and they can be super-spreaders, I worry this is just the start!!
What do y’all think?

 

[Evan]

State wide I'm not sure I would declare a peak yet, but everything is pointing to the entire state being past peak by next weekend. The Jacksonville area has now seen two weeks of declining cases, and hospitalizations appear to be following now. Duval County saw cases last week drop by over 20% from the previous week. R(t) estimates across the Jacksonville area are well below 1.0 and the R(t) across the rest of the state is falling rapidly. Latest estimate for the state as a whole is 0.99 and falling. ( covidestim.org ). Obviously that's a model nowcast so it could be off.

I don't know either for sure, but I do think Florida is at an inflection point. They can't really handle too many more hospitalizations and that positivity rate is not a good sign. I certainly hope they're peaking and about to see things calm down. I'm just not convinced we're going to see the rapid fall-off that the UK and others experienced because we're not remotely doing the same things that the UK did in places like Florida and Louisiana.

 

[Evan]

I hope and pray the peak is here, however, most school in Bama started last week and since the variant affects children and they can be super-spreaders, I worry this is just the start!!
What do y’all think?

It's difficult for me to believe Alabama is at a peak considering the numbers in surrounding states. I think we've a ways to go, and the start of school is likely to influence that to some extent, but it's hard to predict how much. I don't see why Alabama would get off easy when compared to AR/MS/LA/FL/GA.

 

[Jacob]

I don't know either for sure, but I do think Florida is at an inflection point. They can't really handle too many more hospitalizations and that positivity rate is not a good sign. I certainly hope they're peaking and about to see things calm down. I'm just not convinced we're going to see the rapid fall-off that the UK and others experienced because we're not remotely doing the same things that the UK did in places like Florida and Louisiana.

I'm not sure what to expect out of Florida and Louisiana as they start to decline. I can see the argument that things being as open as they have been as both a reason it'll fall faster and a reason it'll fall slower.

 

[Jacob]

It's difficult for me to believe Alabama is at a peak considering the numbers in surrounding states. I think we've a ways to go, and the start of school is likely to influence that to some extent, but it's hard to predict how much. I don't see why Alabama would get off easy when compared to AR/MS/LA/FL/GA.

I don't think Alabama has peaked yet either (Mobile not included, I think Mobile/Baldwin counties are on the downswing), though I don't think we are too far away. R(t) estimates have been dropping pretty steadily across the state, so it wouldn't surprise me if we peak later this week or next weekend as a whole.

The other side to the idea of when an area has "peaked" is what metric somebody is using to define that. Is it hospitalizations, cases, or true "peak" spread. The true "peak" spread would occur ~4-8 days before peak "cases", which would then occur about a week before peak hospitalizations. I think it is possible Alabama is already past/at true "peak" spread, but it's not something that is measurable and can really only be assessed post cases/hospitalizations peak.

I'm curious why you think Alabama has gotten off easy compared to AR/MS/LA/FL/GA. Florida and LA I get, but we are currently almost right in line with Mississippi (48 hospitalizations/100k vs. 51 for MS) and higher than Arkansas (44) and Georgia (38).

 

[Jacob]

I hope and pray the peak is here, however, most school in Bama started last week and since the variant affects children and they can be super-spreaders, I worry this is just the start!!
What do y’all think?

If we truly peak and start to fall, school resuming would likely be little more than noise in the signal. There was a lot of noise about what Thanksgiving/Christmas/New Years would do back during the winter wave, and for areas that were already post-peak and falling, they continued to fall at roughly the same rate.

I think schools could enhance a few local clusters, but I don't think it'll be a major driver over the overall pattern.

 

[South AL Wx]

My wife tested positive for covid this morning. She has migraines pretty often, and her head started hurting last week. She thought is was a migraine, but went to urgent care on Friday and got a covid test. It wound up being negative, but she started having worse symptoms this weekend. She started coughing some, with nasal congestion and a runny nose. This morning, she noticed that her sense of taste had gone away. She went to our family doctor and tested positive this morning. We are both fully vaccinated with the Pfizer vaccine (since April). So far, I haven't had any symptoms. We're just praying that our 3 year old son doesn't get it.

 

[Lori]

My wife tested positive for covid this morning. She has migraines pretty often, and her head started hurting last week. She thought is was a migraine, but went to urgent care on Friday and got a covid test. It wound up being negative, but she started having worse symptoms this weekend. She started coughing some, with nasal congestion and a runny nose. This morning, she noticed that her sense of taste had gone away. She went to our family doctor and tested positive this morning. We are both fully vaccinated with the Pfizer vaccine (since April). So far, I haven't had any symptoms. We're just praying that our 3 year old son doesn't get it.

Praying!! They are saying Delta symptoms aren’t showing loss of sense of taste and smell so hopefully the vaccine will keep it from being as bad.

 

[thundersnow]

Former Weather Channel personality Jeanetta Jones has died of COVID.

 

[StormStalker]

No ICU beds available in Alabama. Not good.

 

[Evan]

I'm sincerely curious here. Are people seriously this afraid of a tiny needle?

 

[ghost]

I'm sincerely curious here. Are people seriously this afraid of a tiny needle?

He might have a side gig as a preacher in a snake-handling holiness church

 

[ghost]

Former Weather Channel personality Jeanetta Jones has died of COVID.

I was reading about her and found this out. I never knew this happened and it ended her career.

"On Thanksgiving Day in 2006, Jones was involved in a violent car accident on her way to work at the Weather Channel. A car had run a red light and hit the passenger side of her SUV, forcing it to flip over several times. Media reports say that even though Jones was wearing her seat belt, her head went through the windshield, impacting thousands of slivers of glass into her face and her head. She suffered a significant brain injury from that accident, leaving her permanently disabled."

 

[Jacob]

@KoD , has there been any slow down in volume the last few days? Numbers in HH's system and in Madison County have slightly dropped in the last couple days. I wouldn’t expect a peak in hospitalizations up there for another 7-14 days, so I’m curious if there’s a noticeable change in the number coming in or just a random slight decrease.

 

[KoD]

@KoD , has there been any slow down in volume the last few days? Numbers in HH's system and in Madison County have slightly dropped in the last couple days. I wouldn’t expect a peak in hospitalizations up there for another 7-14 days, so I’m curious if there’s a noticeable change in the number coming in or just a random slight decrease.

I've actually been on vacation for the last few days but ER volume seemed to be down over the weekend from where it was covid-wise. Still high but better. I haven't received a report on inpatient stats yet this week.