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Severe WX Severe Threat 17-18 March 2021

yeah Southern Tuscaloosa, Northern Jeffco and NW Madison county are suck zones. Every single time they track over the same areas.

I know UAH was studying the impact of topography on specific tornado hot zones but I don't know what their ultimate conclusion was.
 
I agree. The temps just haven't warmed any in the Bham metro.

Been steadily rising all day just stalled out with the precip. Likely rise more when precip slacks off in a bit.
 
Does anyone know how far the warm front has pushed northward at 5 pm?

A poster here said Spann said the temps are 10 degrees lower than originally forecasted. That would put them in the 60s instead of 70s - a likely game-changer or at least a significant influencer on the original model predictions for this event.

Edit: Maybe Tyler Penland answered my question in the post right above this one.
 
Storm west of Billingsley has ramped up considerably.
 
Does anyone know how far the warm front has pushed northward at 5 pm?

A poster here said Spann said the temps are 10 degrees lower than originally forecasted. That would put them in the 60s instead of 70s - a likely game-changer or at least a significant influencer on the original model predictions for this event.

Edit: Maybe Tyler Penland answered my question in the post right above this one.
Spann noted we had expected to see some sun this afternoon. We didnt, but with a few hours between the storm rounds the temps & DPs will rise even w/o sun.
 
Definitely something with the terrain y’all got that way. It’s like the southern part of Tuscaloosa Co. Guaranteed to tighten up and drop one.
Might be the general SW/NE orientation of Jefferson County as well, which is the direction most tornadoes travel. Plus, Jefferson covers a lot of area, as well as being fairly lengthy in that direction. Tuscaloosa County is large in area as well.
 
Still 66/65 here as it continues to rain. Basement flooded big time, still dreary and overcast. Here's hoping things don't destabilize much and the cells in MS keep struggling.
 
Still 66/65 here as it continues to rain. Basement flooded big time, still dreary and overcast. Here's hoping things don't destabilize much and the cells in MS keep struggling.

How deep would you say the flooding currently is? I'm asking because I need some way to properly grasp how bad things are where you are.
 
I wouldn’t write things off if I was in the southern 2/3rd of Alabama. Still some discrete convection approaching Meridian and increasing shear. Will we have enough instability behind the round that is currently over AL? Time will tell.
 
How deep would you say the flooding currently is? I'm asking because I need some way to properly grasp how bad things are where you are.
The yard tends to flood whenever it rains very hard, but the basement only floods every once in a while; having to dump water from the basement and make drainage holes in the basement. Radar is estimating nearly three inches.
 
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