Severe WX Severe Threat 17-18 March 2021

[WhirlingWx]

*CAUTION: LOUD*
From Selma... hard to tell if it was on the ground or just a wall cloud... but that's absurd. Likely didn't touch down before entering the city, but could have right before leaving it. Regardless, CC showed that clearly major damage occurred somewhere.

 

[South AL Wx]

BMX reports spotters have confirmed a tornado near Bluffport, or near Livingston.

 

[TornadoFan]

New warning on the Choctaw County storm.

 

[MattPetrulli]

The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 30 continues.

SUMMARY...A small corridor more favorable for the development of a
strong tornado may be evolving across south-central MS.

DISCUSSION...Recent KDGX radar imagery reveals a tornadic supercell
over Lincoln County MS. This supercell has developed within an
environment characterized by strong instability and low-level shear.
The environment immediate downstream of this cell is currently free
of storms. The area downstream also recently experienced a subtle
break in the clouds, allowing for a bit more heating. The surface
observation at JAN recently reported 78/68 and is now showing a due
south wind at 15 kt. These factors suggest a small corridor more
favorable for the development of a strong tornado may be evolving
across south-central MS.

 

[The Nino]

Low-level shear was woefully underplayed with this by all guidance until the last minute...

Fred what is your latest thoughts for North Alabama?

 

[MadisonDawg]

*CAUTION: LOUD*
From Selma... hard to tell if it was on the ground or just a wall cloud... but that's absurd. Likely didn't touch down before entering the city, but could have right before leaving it. Regardless, CC showed that clearly major damage occurred somewhere.

Looks like the video was taken from some sort of industrial plant, possibly the paper mill mentioned earlier. Very nasty looking storm.

 

[MattPetrulli]

Low-level shear was woefully underplayed with this by all guidance until the last minute...

Yeah I don't recall shear being near this strong at this hour

 

[Fred Gossage]

Fred what is your latest thoughts for North Alabama?

It may take a while, but near and west of I-65 looks highly dangerous late today and tonight.

 

[The Nino]

It may take a while, but near and west of I-65 looks highly dangerous late today and tonight.

So east of 65 is looking not that bad? That would be good news for the HSV metro.

 

[Fred Gossage]

So east of 65 is looking not that bad? That would be good news for the HSV metro.

I'm more uncertain. We will need to assess by early evening as the warm front gets on the move.

 

[WhirlingWx]

I hope I'm not cluttering the thread up with all these big posts with images

 

[MadisonDawg]

I hope I'm not cluttering the thread up with all these big posts with images

As long as they're pictures of tornadoes I'm fine with it.

 

[Keldeo]

Reports of Sirens going off in Tuscaloosa for no reason. They shouldn't test Sirens on high risk days.

 

[warneagle]

Confirmed tornado on the cell near Sontag, MS.

 

[Tennie]

TOR updated for the Brookhaven storm. CC drop confirms TOG. Anyone in that area should be in their safe shelters if they aren't already!

 

[KoD]

Yeah I don't recall shear being near this strong at this hour

0-1km shear was predicted to be around 150 at this time of day in most of central alabama which is sufficient but not outrageous. I think we're looking at 200-250+ instead.

 

[Evan]

Warm front making progress. TCL and Southwestern Bham suburbs have risen 2-3 degrees from earlier.

 

[kcyalater]

This

Reports of Sirens going off in Tuscaloosa for no reason. They shouldn't test Sirens on high risk days.

Or on any day with risk.

 

[warneagle]

New Tornado Watch for eastern AL.

 

[MattPetrulli]

Brookhaven, MS cell with the MD on it has a TDS on it and is confirmed by NWS.