Severe WX Severe Weather Threat 4/5/17-4/6/17

[MichelleH]

Wow! I just came from outside and I can already see the lightning from the storm near Tuscaloosa! I'm in southern Cullman County!!

 

[akt1985]

I would assume the warm front is to Birmingham. Dew points are in the low 60s. Meanwhile, dew points are in the low 50s in Huntsville.

 

[Brax]

HRRR Maintaining its "Rain? What Rain? I don't see no rain!" stance....

 

[Richardjacks]

06 nam shows CAPE rapidly increasing the next couple of hours...will need to watch these convergence bands setting up in southwest and south alabama extending northeast, especially as drier/eml comes in.

 

[Argus]

Right now, it's 54 outside with a dewpoint of 49. I'm not convinced it will be bad here. I've only had to deal with one tornado warning here, since 2008.

 

[Daryl]

HRRR Maintaining its "Rain? What Rain? I don't see no rain!" stance....

From Huntsville's afd discussion "The HRRR is essentially useless at this point."

 

[KoD]

From Huntsville's afd discussion "The HRRR is essentially useless at this point."

I don't trust the HRRR any more than 6 hours out and I feel that's being gracious. If I'm really nerding out I may go 8.

 

[RF16Gold]

Just had hail a little bigger than golf balls here just to the east of Anniston. Will be some windshield and roof damage around I suspect.

 

[ARCC]

Lovely at work to turn off a Atmospheric Anti-Climax main around 5 to get hit by constant lightning and pea sized hail at 5:30. All is quiet now.

 

[ARCC]

Heads up that could be number one. Storm north of Demopolis is taking on the flying eagle look. That joker is likely surface based.

 

[akt1985]

Just had hail a little bigger than golf balls here just to the east of Anniston. Will be some windshield and roof damage around I suspect.

You should report it to the NWS so they can issue a warning.

 

[RF16Gold]

You should report it to the NWS so they can issue a warning.

I did and we were already under a warning. Dew point at Anniston Airport went from 57 to 62 after warm front passed.

 

[ARCC]

Heads up that could be number one. Storm north of Demopolis is taking on the flying eagle look. That joker is likely surface based.

Severe warned. Mesoanalysis suggest SR helicity maybe close to 300 around there, plenty to put down a tornado.

 

[ARCC]

Storm in Clay County showing inflow notch. I need GRlevel on this phone. Haha

 

[Equus]

Cellular storms lining up just south of the warm front. Surface based or not I don't see that as a good omen.

 

[Chris3024]

Just had pea to half inch hail in southwest Cullman

 

[CoreyandFrosty]

Is the wedge already setting up in Atlanta?

 

[pritchlaw]

Lots of lightning in Hayden/Warrior now.

 

[Daryl]

Mesoscale Discussion 0438
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0615 AM CDT Wed Apr 05 2017

Areas affected...Alabama/western Georgia and into the Florida
Panhandle

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 123...

Valid 051115Z - 051245Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 123
continues.

SUMMARY...Strong/locally severe storms continue across much of
Alabama and into western Georgia and vicinity at this time. Hail,
and perhaps locally damaging winds, remain the primary risk in the
short term, though wind and tornado risk will gradually increase
this morning (eventually requiring tornado watch issuance).

DISCUSSION...Latest radar loop shows scattered strong/locally severe
storms ongoing across WW 123 at this time, with the strongest storms
existing within a cluster east of Birmingham moving eastward toward
northwest Georgia. These storms are ongoing along the leading edge
of the low-level moisture return and likely remain slightly elevated
-- with large hail the primary risk along with the possibility of a
few stronger gusts.

Meanwhile, south and west of the stronger convection, isolated
showers/thunderstorms continue to increase, ahead of the advancing
upper system and associated cold front where an increasingly
moist/unstable airmass resides. As this trend continues, eventual
development of surface-based supercells is expected; given the
scheduled 13z expiration of WW 123, a new (likely to be) tornado
watch will be required.

 

[Brax]

That cell in Ashland, AL is trying hard to drop some rotation...