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Severe WX Severe Weather Threat 4/5/17-4/6/17

Hmm, it seems like a lot of the CAM are saying, "what tornado event?" for much of Georgia from Atlanta northward. Severe thunderstorms still distinctly possible, but next to nil surface instability.

Edit: Of course I say that and the 3z HRRR goes nuts across most of north Georgia from about 16z through the end of the run..
 
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Anyone have a clue to the location of the warm front??
Knowing what I know could happen, it was a little daunting leaving my daughter's in South Talladega County telling my kids, grandkids and parent's good bye and stay safe. They appear to be in the bulleyes but they are also very respectful of severe wx events, they all have a severe wx plan, I wish my parent's had a way underground.
Of course, I get home tonight and TWC is showing the Tuscaloosa story of the 2011 Outbreak....UGH....I'm just worried for people....
 
Not that it will be anywhere near as bad, but storm placement on that run reminds me so much of the well known 4/3/74 tornado track survey map. Been a while since there was a significant threat over that large of a north-south area that verified with strong tornadoes throughout; 3/2/12 is the last one I can remember.

Oh, and also it's utterly terrifying. Not much sleep tonight, I think.
 
The pressure on the warm side of the front is a little higher than RAP expected.... This may be pushing things forward north than RAP was expecting... The low is also a couple MB lower... This will make the winds of the eventual clash that much stronger... Also, observed temps on the cold side are a little colder, and warmer on the warm side than progged by the RAP.... Again, more energy to work with for CAPEs.... What a headache... About 4MB total extra difference, and 4 degrees total extra difference respectively vs RAP predicted.
 
98ede9d1e5d38a3b4e8981d0193ddb05.png
Wow
 
18 hour sounding for North central GA on the hRRR.
hrrr_2017040504_fh18_sounding_34.44N_84.31W.png
 
HRRR really works GA over. Just absolutely pummels them. SIGTOR of 10.5
 
Evan said:
HRRR really works GA over. Just absolutely pummels them. SIGTOR of 10.5
Click to expand...

I'm a bit puzzled by the lack of convection towards the end of the run. Probably my 2AM brain missing something obvious. I suspect a lot of those little green dots will be more than that. Crazy CAPE/LIs, plenty of shear to boot.
 
Tyler Penland said:
I'm a bit puzzled by the lack of convection towards the end of the run. Probably my 2AM brain missing something obvious. I suspect a lot of those little green dots will be more than that. Crazy CAPE/LIs, plenty of shear to boot.
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To me the look of them screams some sort of feedback.... And that just trashes the entire output when they start... Can't believe we're this close and still have multiple different solutions on the high res models... Feels like a winter event.
 
Brax said:
To me the look of them screams some sort of feedback.... And that just trashes the entire output when they start... Can't believe we're this close and still have multiple different solutions on the high res models... Feels like a winter event.
Click to expand...

None of them really show the storms down on the coast which IMO throws everything off from the start to begin with. HRRR has been changing some each run too.
 
That FL/AL area is looking more and more like the HRRR did from about 12 hours ago.... And nothing like any 0z or more recent model....
 
Brax said:
That FL/AL area is looking more and more like the HRRR did from about 12 hours ago.... And nothing like any 0z or more recent model....
Click to expand...

I think the SPC fell asleep. Somebody poke em and let them know there's a bunch of weenies that wanna see the update then go to bed ha.
 
Their site is having issues.... I can see one map, click the link, gives old update.... Also you can clearly see the moderate risk on the map, but category next to it says slight....
 
Brax said:
Just updated on their site.... Sounds like they think GA is in for one heck of a pounding still.
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Yeah. Interesting they seem to be buying the in-situ wedge situation. The 4z HRRR certainly wasn't heading towards mid-afternoon. Probably a good call, though.
 
5z HRRR trying to include some convection down around the coast in it's latest init.... But still not handling it all....
Going to see how this run plays out and then get some rest I guess.
 
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