KevinH
Member
Where do you find CIPS? I am trying to see the analogs myself LOL
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Severe Weather 2021
- Thread starter Fred Gossage
- Start date
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- severe weather
- Thread starter
- #82
No.... CIPS does not do seasonal analogs. It does short-range and medium-range analogs based on the GFS ensemble system. These years being used by automated analogs is from the SST anomaly analogs on TropicalTidbits.com. However, these years have been analogs prior that that just by similar human-driven pattern recognition of the background state.
- Thread starter
- #83
We're getting to the point now where seasonal analogs, seasonal teleconnections, etc., related to the background state are going to start taking a back seat going forward. We have a significant and intensifying -PDO in place, we have a west-based La Nina that is driving a screaming +TNI. We have had pattern suppression for much of the winter to keep the ridge from getting out of control. The classic things we look for in the background state are already there and are only getting increasingly favorable. We know the background state will be there. We're now transitioning to watching things like the progression of the MJO, watching for phase changes in the NAO and AO, etc., to try to get an idea of when the door opens for active periods to begin. Based on what I've seen thus far, I think it gradually begins toward the last part of this month. There's been a somewhat consistent signal for that for around the 24th-25th of this month on the CFS dashboard since way back on January 9th. Now, the timing of a phase change in the NAO/AO, timing of the current MJO wave collapsing toward the COD, etc., all support that general idea. It's also supported by one of our top seasonal analogs...
I still think the peak of the activity is later in March and in April though, but I think the doors open toward the end of this month.
I still think the peak of the activity is later in March and in April though, but I think the doors open toward the end of this month.
andyhb
Member
Already got that low amplitude loading pattern with a strong polar jet feed at the end of the 12z Euro there.
KevinH
Member
Things keep lining up... smh
andyhb
Member
You're not going to see many -NAO blocking ridges stronger than this in a prog from the 00z Euro.
Weatherphreak
Member
Was 1932 a similar La Niña setup to 74 and 2011? With those being the largest southern outbreaks I don’t see any 1932 mentions. This may be a topic for a whole other thread.
- Thread starter
- #88
Based on the reanalysis data we have access to, it looks like we were transitioning from a weak cool ENSO event of some caliber (cool neutral or maybe a weak Nina) solidly toward an El Nino.
I recently found this video from a storm chaser who has also looked at the current setup and come up with his own forecast for this tornado season:
(I especially recommend clicking on the video title to watch on YouTube itself.)
For those of you who don't have time to watch this, the shorthand version is that he's (independently) come to some of the same conclusions regarding the prognosis for this year that others in this thread have (i.e. the ceiling for the tornado threat, particularly in the Ohio River Valley and Deep South, is very high and should be taken seriously as a potential threat).
(I especially recommend clicking on the video title to watch on YouTube itself.)
For those of you who don't have time to watch this, the shorthand version is that he's (independently) come to some of the same conclusions regarding the prognosis for this year that others in this thread have (i.e. the ceiling for the tornado threat, particularly in the Ohio River Valley and Deep South, is very high and should be taken seriously as a potential threat).
KevinH
Member
I JUST watched this video a few days ago. Will definitely watch the smaller details of how things set up in the coming weeks.
After a record high in the '80s
, we had a cold front come through with a small line of thunderstorms and rain, but intense enough to give us pea sized hail for about 15 minutes. Now they are talking about the possibility of more snow next week. The last time we had more than one snow was in January and February of 2011.
, we had a cold front come through with a small line of thunderstorms and rain, but intense enough to give us pea sized hail for about 15 minutes. Now they are talking about the possibility of more snow next week. The last time we had more than one snow was in January and February of 2011.Attachments
- Moderator
- #92
Tornado warning for Seminole County, FL north of Orlando. Nice little supercell sitting by itself.
andyhb
Member
Lol, all of the climate models initialized from the beginning of February are like "what severe weather season" beyond March.
KevinH
Member
I am thinking we will not see anything more about the spring until the last week of this month or so.
Brice Wood
Member
Speaking of spring, much of the country is supposed to have an above average spring, especially the plains, don’t know about rainfall
jmills
Member
The Euro and parallel GFS both have a potential severe risk next Thursday across parts of south Alabama and Georgia. Obviously it's far out but it bears watching.
KevinH
Member
I will be surprised if this is still the case Mon/Tue.
Peter Griffin
Member
Euro and GFS showing potential for severe in the Eastern Carolinas for the system coming through in the 2/15-2/17 time period. Will depend on how much the SER can erode any CAD in place. Models may be eroding the CAD too early as it is usually more stubborn than modeled but we will have to wait and see.
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- Moderator
- #99
The risk is still there on the models. I'm keeping an eye on it.
IIRC, wasn't 2011 fairly slow as well until April took the brakes off?