Severe WX Severe Weather Threat 4/5/17-4/6/17

Psalm 148:8 said:
Wow! Brax, any way that junk convection stabilizes the atmosphere somewhat? What about cloud cover...would that help lessen the threat? Guess what I'm asking is the ANYTHING that will help lessen the threat tomorrow?
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I think its overamplifying the junk convection, and TBH, the individual cells will only prepare the way for more later on in the state of the atmosphere.
 
South AL Wx said:
Hopefully, but we also have this:

MOB:

KMOB IS DOWN FOR UNSCHEDULED MAINTENANCE UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE.

And EOX:

KEOX RADAR HAS GONE OFFLINE. TECHS WILL BE NOTIFIED TUESDAY MORNING.
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This is honestly infuriating, and will make covering the event very difficult, especially due to dixie alley terrain and the multiple rounds of cells making it hard for chasers to give us vision in that area.

If KBMX goes down ima just give up tbh.
 
Tyler Penland said:
From GSP:
Things begin to change rather quickly aft sunrise tomorrow as a
deepening sfc low advances toward the srn Midwest. An associated
upper low will swing a large area of vort energy into the base of
the trof which will create increasing ulvl difl flow over the FA
with pockets of energy traversing the flow. At the llvls...there are
sigfnt disagreements wrt the synoptic pattern. The NAM is developing
a moist/stable insitu wedge, which lasts throughout the period. This
is not supported by the other op models nor the ens guidance. Thus
the NAM will be treated as an outlier and will count on a good
amount of destabilization during the afternoon.

I mostly agree with them. I don't really see why it's developing one with such stout flow. The high off the coast is to the SE which would actually help eradicate any wedge that does try to form. I guess it's junk convection is causing it but it tends to drastically overdo CAD precip (see the last 2 Atmospheric Anti-Climax ice storms it was forecasting).
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Yeah, this is the major concern for sure. Seems like this would be the only saving grace for north GA to not see a major event.

I'm hesitant to go full bore with what most of the guidance is showing, I guess in a lot of ways because these sort of events just don't happen in north Georgia with any degree of frequency (especially when compared to the rest of Dixie Alley).

But the GFS (which is usually pretty conservative when it comes to severe weather parameters) has been honking this event for days with eye-popping output, as has the Euro.
 
GTWXAlum said:
Yeah, this is the major concern for sure. Seems like this would be the only saving grace for north GA to not see a major event.

I'm hesitant to go full bore with what most of the guidance is showing, I guess in a lot of ways because these sort of events just don't happen in north Georgia with any degree of frequency (especially when compared to the rest of Dixie Alley).

But the GFS (which is usually pretty conservative when it comes to severe weather parameters) has been honking this event for days with eye-popping output, as has the Euro.
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The last time I remember multiple rounds of tornadoes in one day in north GA was 2011...
April_27%2C_2011_severe_weather_warnings.JPG
 
The simulated reflectivity and updraft helicity maps are legitimately TERRIFYING. Making comparisons to 4/27 is southern severe weather's Voldemort, but that reflectivity map looks AWFULLY similar in regards to storm spacing and coverage. Let us hope they're far less intense and the models are a bit off with intensity because otherwise I have serious concern.

Off topic, can folks with DVR access please help me out and record severe coverage tomorrow? I may be out helping my fiancé and her family empty a storage shed part of the day... watching the weather closely but with no TV access lol. Would appreciate...
 
The veered surface winds on the HRRR through early morning may be a caveat. That wouldn't eliminate the threat, but it certainly could limit it. And if they stay veered, it can mess up convergence along the dryline....

Of course, a secondary low like the NAM is showing will render that caveat moot. And it's probably why it goes bonkers with the supercells along the dryline....

But veered surface winds rendered a lot of the potential threat on 1/22 down in Florida a much lesser event. Just something to keep an eye on...
 
Also, this is totally unscientific unless apparently you're Bill Paxton (RIP) but I'm starting to get 'that feeling' as the event gets closer. That gut reminder that "oh, hey, this could be a legit dangerous outbreak and you actually need to maybe make the storm room ready for actual use this evening"

We had a steel reinforced concrete safe room built into the house we built a few years ago. I hope we don't have to use it tomorrow, but given parameters...
 
darkskys25 said:
Thats not a slower solution. The dryline is punching through Tuscaloosa at the same time (21z) as previous runs. Thi s has been pretty consistent with other high res models. But I do agree on the nasty part =-)
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Not that it is a big deal either way, it is bad vs. worse, but the 18z is absolutely a bit slower than the 12z and 06z runs. We are only talking about 50 or so miles difference, or probably about a one to two hour difference. Granted, it is the 18z NAM we are talking about.
e608413e-3b61-480f-940e-bf154e4bb9c5


12z 3k NAM at noon tomorrow: http://maps3.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/nam4km/2017040412/030/sfctd.us_ov.png
18z 3k NAM at noon tomorrow: http://maps3.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/nam4km/2017040418/024/sfctd.us_ov.png
 
Kory said:
The veered surface winds on the HRRR through early morning may be a caveat. That wouldn't eliminate the threat, but it certainly could limit it. And if they stay veered, it can mess up convergence along the dryline....

Of course, a secondary low like the NAM is showing will render that caveat moot. And it's probably why it goes bonkers with the supercells along the dryline....

But veered surface winds rendered a lot of the potential threat on 1/22 down in Florida a much lesser event. Just something to keep an eye on...
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Praying this is the case! I know chasers love the thrill.....much like I love the thrill watching a winter storm potential on the models...but I never ever want to see destruction.....unfortunately I know that is a part of us living in the south.
 
I wish I had time to take off work tomorrow.... Any storms that set up on the dry line may well be LP Supercells and that would be beautiful (and rare, in the area) to see.
 
I will be in at 8am for work. If I see things going down and it becomes apparent that a major outbreak is underway I will leave with or without their consent. I just have to give myself enough lead time since I am an hour away
 
Yeah I'm telecommuting tomorrow. I have a lot of folks in the line of fire between Auburn and home in central Georgia.
 
Brax said:
HRRRX is dead since before 12z. HRRR is running but not being posted to NWS sites, but I have it via WxBell. What you want to see/know?
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It's posting to Pivotal as well.
 
I know most of y'all are focused on central to north Alabama and Georgia, but I'm wondering what y'all are seeing for the southern parts of those states (SE AL/SW GA). Thank you.
 
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