Severe WX Severe Weather Threat 4/5/17-4/6/17

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I'm still very concerned about the mid-morning round. If the warm front can get north fast enough you will have the storms rapidly become surfaced based supercells with 1500-2000 cape and probably the highest helicity of the day. People need to be aware of this possibility for their commute, which BMX did a good job a pointing out.
 
South AL Wx said:
To someone not into weather, I have to wonder if "enhanced" actually sounds worse than "moderate."
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I would say enhanced DEFINITELY sounds worse than moderate. To be quite frank, the new words for the risks are idiotic. One could also make the argument "Marginal" sounds worse than "Slight". Enhanced being lower than moderate is asinine. Whoever made the call on those words really blew it imo. Should just go to a 1-5 number system or something.
 
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Jacob said:
18z 3k NAM has slowed the system down, looks pretty nasty for most of the SE

refcmp_uh001h.us_state_vse.png
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Thats not a slower solution. The dryline is punching through Tuscaloosa at the same time (21z) as previous runs. Thi s has been pretty consistent with other high res models. But I do agree on the nasty part =-)
 
Some potentially bad news for this area. KMXX (Montgomery) radar may be down for the duration of the event. Hoping they can find some parts!:

KMXX will be down until Thursday, April 6th, as technicians wait for replacement
parts. Radar will return to service if parts arrive sooner.
 
South AL Wx said:
Some potentially bad news for this area. KMXX (Montgomery) radar may be down for the duration of the event. Hoping they can find some parts!:

KMXX will be down until Thursday, April 6th, as technicians wait for replacement
parts. Radar will return to service if parts arrive sooner.
Click to expand...

Good grief.
 
South AL Wx said:
Some potentially bad news for this area. KMXX (Montgomery) radar may be down for the duration of the event. Hoping they can find some parts!:

KMXX will be down until Thursday, April 6th, as technicians wait for replacement
parts. Radar will return to service if parts arrive sooner.
Click to expand...
Can't be worse than 22 January when we had like three radars out at once on a high risk day (knock on wood).
 
The 3km nam/wrf seems to show 3-6 rounds of supercells pushing through middle-north GA through the day tomorrow.... Will be a long day for those of us following the weather.

For those looking for info on timing, there will be 4 "Main" rounds of storms. I have left off most of the "junk" convection rounds and focused on the biggest and most dangerous to Mid/North GA. Please remember that anything could still change and that this is still only one model, but it's a good guess at what will happen tomorrow.

8SSCUvk.jpg

1AG4IRM.jpg

S4wOko8.jpg

CVI2G8m.jpg
 
South AL Wx said:
Some potentially bad news for this area. KMXX (Montgomery) radar may be down for the duration of the event. Hoping they can find some parts!:

KMXX will be down until Thursday, April 6th, as technicians wait for replacement
parts. Radar will return to service if parts arrive sooner.
Click to expand...
Every major event this year has had a radar down in the area.
 
stebo said:
Every major event this year has had a radar down in the area.
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Has anyone tried percussive maintenance yet? lol
 
The 3km NAM is crazy. Supercells with the morning round, discrete supercells in the free warm sector in confluence bands, and supercells/line segments with the dry line. My goodness.
 
ARCC said:
I'm still very concerned about the mid-morning round. If the warm front can get north fast enough you will have the storms rapidly become surfaced based supercells with 1500-2000 cape and probably the highest helicity of the day. People need to be aware of this possibility for their commute, which BMX did a good job a pointing out.
Click to expand...

I'm very concerned too. This going to be a very rare, and prolong severe weather event with multiple rounds of storms, and multiple long tracking supercells. The 3km NAM has three updraft helicity spikes traversing my county tomorrow.
 
warneagle said:
Can't be worse than 22 January when we had like three radars out at once on a high risk day (knock on wood).
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Hopefully, but we also have this:

MOB:

KMOB IS DOWN FOR UNSCHEDULED MAINTENANCE UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE.

And EOX:

KEOX RADAR HAS GONE OFFLINE. TECHS WILL BE NOTIFIED TUESDAY MORNING.
 
Wow! Brax, any way that junk convection stabilizes the atmosphere somewhat? What about cloud cover...would that help lessen the threat? Guess what I'm asking is the ANYTHING that will help lessen the threat tomorrow?
 
I'm hoping I'm wrong but I'm worried that folks in metro Atlanta aren't aware of the risks, which could really begin as early as 7 AM tomorrow. There's so much news focus on the I-85 bridge issue that there's not much attention on anything else.
 
The 3k NAM still keeps the best instability in GA west of I-75 and north of I-20 for most of the day until just before the cold front comes through between 0z and 3z Thursday
 
GTWXAlum said:
The 3k NAM still keeps the best instability in GA west of I-75 and north of I-20 for most of the day until just before the cold front comes through between 0z and 3z Thursday
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From GSP:
Things begin to change rather quickly aft sunrise tomorrow as a
deepening sfc low advances toward the srn Midwest. An associated
upper low will swing a large area of vort energy into the base of
the trof which will create increasing ulvl difl flow over the FA
with pockets of energy traversing the flow. At the llvls...there are
sigfnt disagreements wrt the synoptic pattern. The NAM is developing
a moist/stable insitu wedge, which lasts throughout the period. This
is not supported by the other op models nor the ens guidance. Thus
the NAM will be treated as an outlier and will count on a good
amount of destabilization during the afternoon.

I mostly agree with them. I don't really see why it's developing one with such stout flow. The high off the coast is to the SE which would actually help eradicate any wedge that does try to form. I guess it's junk convection is causing it but it tends to drastically overdo CAD precip (see the last 2 Atmospheric Anti-Climax ice storms it was forecasting).
 
Tyler Penland said:
From GSP:
Things begin to change rather quickly aft sunrise tomorrow as a
deepening sfc low advances toward the srn Midwest. An associated
upper low will swing a large area of vort energy into the base of
the trof which will create increasing ulvl difl flow over the FA
with pockets of energy traversing the flow. At the llvls...there are
sigfnt disagreements wrt the synoptic pattern. The NAM is developing
a moist/stable insitu wedge, which lasts throughout the period. This
is not supported by the other op models nor the ens guidance. Thus
the NAM will be treated as an outlier and will count on a good
amount of destabilization during the afternoon.
Click to expand...


You can see it on the Capes in NE GA, but the energy plows through since it's already been started for so long.
 
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