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Severe WX April 11th-13th, 2020 Severe Weather Threat

NorthGaWeather said:
Two beautiful discrete supercells in Southern Mississippi. The threat for Central/Southern MS through Central/North Central Alabama will only increase through the evening.
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i am very concerned about these two. this is exactly what late runs of the HRRR were hinting at and they have an uninhibited path of rapidly destabilizing atmosphere to work with.
 
AL_ham_op said:
That's your opinion and I respectfully disagree.

Still no sun or much warming at my location. Temps still in the 60s.
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It's an opinion based upon an interpretation of the current mesoscale environment. Locations north of Birmingham may end up with a minimal threat. It won't be because of no sunlight. BTW, the majority of locations in Central Alabama are in the 70s.
 
I'm afraid the southern cell headed for Magnolia might ramp up at a rather unfortunate time, it's got 'the look'
 
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This is in W MS in front of those cells currently in C LA. Does anybody else think these could produce and the threat for MS isn't nearly over?
 
just a word of advice, but calling all clear or wishcasting for ANY area in the outlined moderate or enhanced areas should really be avoided. the only thing it does is open you up to criticism and give a false sense of security to people who may read this site for information to act on. if you want to call this a Forecasted Convective Amplification Deficiency, do it AFTER —
 
buckeye05 said:
I’m not saying all clear for strong tornadoes, I’m just saying well spaced discrete supercell activity is looking less likely for that particular region. Things could still break apart into cells, but it’s looking pretty linear for the time being. We’ll see what happens.
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I agree with this.

buckeye was talking about the immediate/short-term threat for discrete supercells, and that is currently concentrated more to the south. The cell moving out of S. MS is headed for Sumter/Greene/Marengo and the lapse rates and impact of the warm front is currently greatest in that area.

It's not that there's no threat for areas further north -- simply that the risk there is currently less than in the previously mentioned areas. And I believe that's exactly what he was saying in his earlier post.
 
Still on topic, Gov. Ivey in Alabama has declared a state of emergency to override and supend any virus restrictions for this afternoon and tonight and says all shelters should be open.
 
JAN continues the Tornado Emergency:

AT 400 PM CDT, A CONFIRMED LARGE AND DESTRUCTIVE TORNADO WAS LOCATED
OVER SOCIETY HILL, OR 12 MILES NORTHWEST OF COLUMBIA, MOVING
NORTHEAST AT 55 MPH.
 
buckeye05 said:
I’m not saying all clear for strong tornadoes, I’m just saying well spaced discrete supercell activity is looking less likely for that particular region. Things could still break apart into cells, but it’s looking pretty linear for the time being. We’ll see what happens.
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I've only known a handful of Dixie outbreaks with well spaced discrete supercells. We just don't get that here. Not trying to be rude or anything with my post. Maybe I'm just annoyed with all of the Plains chasers complaining about it. Dixie Alley usually sees semi-discrete supercells mixed around junk.
 
NorthGaWeather said:
I've only known a handful of Dixie outbreaks with well spaced discrete supercells. We just don't get that here. Not trying to be rude or anything with my post. Maybe I'm just annoyed with all of the Plains chasers complaining about it. Dixie Alley usually sees semi-discrete supercells mixed around junk.
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I’m not going to derail the thread and list them off, but I can think of plenty of mainly discrete Dixie events. That just isn’t true.
 
NorthGaWeather said:
I've only known a handful of Dixie outbreaks with well spaced discrete supercells. We just don't get that here. Not trying to be rude or anything with my post. Maybe I'm just annoyed with all of the Plains chasers complaining about it. Dixie Alley usually sees semi-discrete supercells mixed around junk.
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Pretty sure the Beauregard/Smith Station tornado last year was embedded in a rain shield.
 
Breezy said:
just a word of advice, but calling all clear or wishcasting for ANY area in the outlined moderate or enhanced areas should really be avoided. the only thing it does is open you up to criticism and give a false sense of security to people who may read this site for information to act on. if you want to call this a Forecasted Convective Amplification Deficiency, do it AFTER —
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Let's be clear -- there's a poster doing this, but it isn't the one who has explicitly explained his logic for why the southern part of the threat area should attract the most attention for right now. Logic that I happen to strongly agree with.

We should be careful not to lump posts that seem to be little more than trolling in with posts that are accurately breaking down the most immediate threat in the short term.
 
buckeye05 said:
I’m not going to derail the thread and list them off, but I can think of plenty of mainly discrete Dixie events. That just isn’t true.
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It actually is. Alan Gerard has discussed this very topic over the last few days. We can discuss this in a thread after this event.
 
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